Quick peek at models for over here has everything from a miss south (EU) to another mostly rain storm from others. I think best scenario for here is I luck out with a wet snow fall. GRR's AFD breaks it down nicely. This one will come down to jet stream interaction/timing. Always a dice toss As the wave arrives, the associated forcing makes precipitation likely Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary question will be p-type. If the northern stream wave and associated colder air can phase with the southern wave that will support more notable snow potential in the Great Lakes or Northeast (which the EPS is hinting at). If the colder air holds off until the southern wave and associated low exit, rain will be dominant until the colder air can arrive (which the GEFS/CMC suites lean towards). Once the colder air associated with the northern stream arrives, temps fall and some lake effect is possible given the very cold nature of the airmass. Specifics as to which scenario will occur during this changeover will become clearer in the coming days.

!!!!!!! lol, just flipped 200,000 2 days ago

Thanks! Figured it was something like that.

Usually mitigates top end potential for wind as compared to when you have one defined center. I think in this case it would probably weaken the pressure gradient from what it could have been over parts of the Sound as there is some low pressure to the north and south of the area.

We had a couple flickers here too. Safe travels!