12/-4 in Fairbanks today. A +4 daily departure. Dang that is a cold climate.

NOAA; For an early look at the Thanksgiving forecast, mean of ensemble guidance supports longwave troughing developing over eastern North America which favors a cold and possibly snowy outcome for the Great Lakes. Relatively high confidence exists in high temps in the 30s given 90th-10th percentile spread of only about 5 degrees, which is low for a day 6 forecast. The mean of each ensemble system and the latest medium range deterministic runs produce a band of deformation precip somewhere across the southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. The 00z and 12z runs of the ENS have generally favored placing the band near southern lower MI with the 12z run adding more membership on-board for this solution. This would likely result in accumulating snow for the area. Meanwhile, the GEPS and GEFS are leaner on snow and precipitation amounts locally with farther south band placement, but these ensembles are still supportive of at least a chance of light precip. Something to keep an eye on for holiday travel concerns.

There's like 14:00 minutes left in the 1st quarter and the other team is about to score a touchdown. Doesn't feel good ofc, but still tons of game left.

I don't think depth is all that important, as long as it's a consistent, relatively large body of water that is significantly warmer than the air above. Bigger factor is just that there's a long stretch where cold air tracks directly over warm water. Klamath Lake certainly isn't big enough for any significant lake effect snow, but it's probably possible to get a couple inches every now and then from it. I remember it happening earlier this year off some similarly sized lakes in Texas. https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/parts-of-dfw-see-up-to-2-inches-of-lake-effect-snow/3434567/ I think the bigger issue with Klamath Lake is it's probably pretty hard to get ice cold winds coming out of the NW there, which is the only realistic track it could take to generate some lake effect. Any flow from that direction seems likely to be relatively dry and warmed by compressional heating off the mountains.