WPO tries to go positive on the ensembles. Maybe that will help down stream.

Nino 1+2 is incredibly fickle though. I don't think warm ENSO is on the table this winter.

What a scintillating suite of 00z runs tonight. Let's see how things look in 4-5 days, until then....

I'll be interested to see if it all of sudden starts going Nina-like, or if it will continue the yearly trend. SOI is the most basic ENSO measurement, but it does have a decent H5 correlation. I think it's linked to the subsurface (the subsurface tends to warm/cool with SOI episodes).

I just don't see it. Clear skies, big ridge, perfect surface gradient late in the run for a runaway inversion.