CFS has been a broken record since the spring. At this point it ain't happening.

NWS still thinks a weak Niña is possible. Plus Snyder talked about in his video yesterday about how for todays climate the water in those regions is chillier compared to todays averages and it would probably be a weak Niña right now if you used the new normals.

This current trade wind burst / SOI spike is probably the last chance for this Nina to get some traction. Probably the most Ninaish the atmosphere has been over the tropical Pacific this season. Pretty ironic when you look at the results.

I think 6 or so if I remember correctly.

Just read all of the posts for December on this. Looks like it was memorable once the ridge broke.