Is that even possible with MJO in a completely different place though. I literally have no F....ing idea what is going on right now.

Storm track is 65-70% of the equation. Any average midwinter airmass can produce snow here. It just can’t be a warmer than average airmass.

I guess one positive about that winter is that SEA got 1.4” of snow. I would take that after last winter and how this one has gone so far.

If we had a retrograding -NAO then -PNA could provide the moisture via overrunning without torching us in the process. The problem so far this winter is that the trough axis has been too far east, similar to 1980/81. Result is lots of dry NW flow. Also the STJ has been lackluster (which is a niña like quality). I still think that is apt to change in January, but one more similar shift from the EPS and we’re back to the late Nov/early Dec pattern progression.

That is mind blowing. Out here it has just been a painful lack of cold so far this season. The worst this climate has to offer.