@snow_wizard the moon is shining bright here now. Maybe clearing coming your way if it's still moving to the SW.

00z ECMWF Day 6-8. This is the main crucial time frame as the ridge merger occurs, and it's nice that pattern develops moving into the believable range and no longer Day 12-16. There are several pieces that have to come together, but it's possible.

Talk about some weird model variety tonight. It looks like the GFS and GEM think that ridge extension that goes over the Bering Sea early in week two is going to deflate the block while the ECMWF cuts the tie to that feature. The difference in outcome is pretty shocking!

Solidly -PNA with an extremely tanked -EPO

You answered your own question. It is a 10-12 day window. Every run will be wildly different. I’m sure this isn’t an outlier run /s