I take ensembles with a grain of salt with snow accumulations well into the extended, because with so many members your bound to have a few that show snow somewhere, so basically every 6 hours you move forward you're tacking on a little snow to the totals, but here is the GEFS. It at least paints the picture of snowy potential as we head past Thanksgiving and into the start of meteorological winter. I'm starting to get pretty excited about it.

Yeah most likely. I think by that point we would be leaving phase 6 and going into 7. Once we’re firmly in 7 will the ridge retrograde and the troughing really start to dig over us

2017-2021 was such a great stretch for snow in the Tacoma area. You had Feb 2017, white Christmas Dec 2017, Feb 2019, Dec 2021, and Feb 2021. Almost all of those events were better than anything I saw living there in the dreadful 1997-2006 era. How did you do in Feb 2018 and Dec 2022?

It seems like it would set up a ridge overhead following the initial backdoor shot then we would have to wait for some type of a retrogression…but not worth extrapolating too much just yet.