Still lots of outages…If we ended up with a tree across our grid we would still be out as well since there was so much major damage out there and we are on a small grid. Would have been a November 2022 repeat. It appears the lake house is still out looking at the map, will need to make a trek over soon to look at things. Anyway…

Yea, GEFS is trying at the end. Just hard to give that cluster of cold members much weight given that models’ poor performance lately. Weighting for some support from a different model.

That's rough. I hope you get your power back soon. 12z GFS in 23 minutes

NOAA: These narrow lines bring concern for high winds (> 45 MPH) as they attempt to tap into the departing strong low level jet. Can`t even rule out thunder with the strong forcing, but showalter indices do look to stay positive. Banking on enough near surface stability with the frozen ground over southern Michigan to keep wind gusts in check, but this is something that will have to be watched closely, and can be better handled with a short fused product. Higher confidence in 40+ mph wind gusts with the stout low level cold advection behind the front, as 850 MB temps crash to -16 C around 12z Friday. 700 MB cold pool reaches Lake Huron by 15z Friday already, thus subsidence and lowering inversion heights should attempt to limit snow shower intensity from the westerly bands off Lake Michigan. Will continue to advertise high scattered- low numerous coverage of snow showers with accumulations of a dusting up to 1 inch in the strongest activity. Sfc-925-850 mb temp/dew pt gradient really tightens up 9-12z time frame and is positioned to provide the focus in the I-69/M-59 corridors. There still looks to be a low chance/isolated snow squall with modest cape briefly intersecting the DGZ late morning/midday with surface temps in low to mid 20s.

Stuck.