This sounds a bit ominous. I'll highlight the section that made me Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1265 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 859 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Oregon...Far Southwest Washington... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181400Z - 190200Z SUMMARY...Extreme surge of moisture flux into terrain as warm front passes will result in mid to upper slopes of coastal and Cascade Ranges to receive up to 1"/hr rates. Localized 5-7" totals are possible and may result in rapid rises and possible flooding in/along streams/rivers. DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a strong well anti-cyclonically curved ridge continue to dominate the eastern north Pacific with strong core of 150-180kt westerly 250 jet crossing the Juan de Fuca Strait attm. At the trailing edge increased divergence and subtle sheared shortwave is streaking through just west of 130W. This will focus surface to boundary layer cyclogenesis with a low 990mb low expected to lift northward toward the Strait by 21z. The energy through the atmospheric column is highly dynamic along and behind a surging warm front. This warm front has yet to reach the Pacific Coast, but is expected around 16-17z from south to north along the Oregon coast. Weaker southerly flow will quickly shift with 925mb flow swinging WSW to align through nearly the entire column to 500mb. Winds will increase to over 60kts with occasional speeds up to 70kt. CIRA LPW denotes the WAA aloft as just recently reached the coast though the 850-700mb layer with core of 99th and Maximum record values in this an 700-500mb layers (displaced further east over central OR attm due to the gentle slope of the deeper AR as a whole). As the warm front passes the total PWats will be over 1.25" and fluxed on that strength of wind (50-80kts from 925-700mb) will result in IVT values over 1000 kg/m/s with higher resolution guidance suggesting localized peaks nearing 1200 kg/m/s placing the surge toward the extreme range. While orientation to the terrain is not fully orthogonal, the magnitude of flux convergence and orographic ascent will support .75"/hr rates in the mid to upper slopes of the central to northwest Oregon Coastal Range and perhaps an hour later into the upper slopes of the Cascades north of Lane county. These rates are expected to surge and ebb through 00z, with an isolated 1"/hr rate possible. As such, rainfall totals will quickly total toward 5"+ in the terrain with rain-shadowed areas perhaps not even reaching .5". Early arriving 12z Hi-Res CAMs suggest isolated totals over 7" by 03z are not out of the realm of possibility. These values are pushing 24hr ARI (Average Return Intervals) definitely into the 25 year range, with some suggestions of exceedance of 50 to 100 year values, in the upper slopes of the central Oregon Cascades. So the rainfall is highly atypical and therefore flooding is possible. FFG values in the region are static and are not likely to be exceeded at 1 or 3hr periods but may push the 6hr+ time range. Yet, NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm soil saturation remain above 70% given the connection to last week's event that was focused further north, and may result in above average run-off as upper profiles will quickly saturate. As such, even the glancing blow across into W WA could exacerbate ongoing flooding there and has been included in the area of concern, though rates/totals would be reduced to the core in central to northern Oregon. So any flooding is not necessarily going to be flashy in nature but notable surge in river levels will be noted. As such, please continue to monitor River Forecasts from local forecast offices, Northwest River Forecast Center, and products/discussion from the National Water Center.

This feels like early mid Jan 2019 levels of desperation. Things are looking terrible. So we will probably have an epic January.

2027?

We lost @Gradient Keeper. It is nice to be in the shadow again, need time to dry out.

Would be nice to see PDX's pathetically low single day calendar day record of 2.69" go down. Timing should be favorable today with the heaviest rain ending probably before 1am.