Here we go again…. Again

12z NAM holds firm. Seems pretty obvious to me that we should be going with the mesoscale model that has been incredibly consistent for every single run and is literally designed for situations like this, over the medium resolution global model which is notorious for botching cyclone tracks and not even intended for short range forecasting. But I dunno I'm just some idiot.

This has got to be a scenario where the nam is out to lunch. We have commonly seen it with temps and precip, this has the potential for super high impact though so it is concerning

It’s hard to discount the significant storm possibilities when plenty of other models are showing it as well. I’m hoping the euro just ends up being right but it’s kind of frustrating that we really might not know until we start watching it develop on satellite and start getting observations from Northern California and southern Oregon.

Slower with the timing, but stronger and a massive wind field.