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Is No. Atlantic Ground Zero for Global Cooling?


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#1
Andie

Posted 25 August 2016 - 11:19 AM

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I don't know what others think of the WUWT site, but they've posted an interesting article on the North Atlantic temps. With a number of graphs charting the history. Worth sauntering through it.

I think as it stands right now, it's more likely to deliver some cold weather to Europe but not globally.
The current solar cycle isn't appreciably different from the last one.

https://wattsupwitht...global-cooling/

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Monthly heat content anomaly in the uppermost 700 metres of the North Atlantic
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#2
wx_statman

Posted 25 August 2016 - 04:25 PM

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From what I've read the cooling in the N. Atlantic is a result of the melting Greenland icecap. So its actually a strong signal for Global Warming. 



#3
Phil

Posted 25 August 2016 - 04:42 PM

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I'd argue the wind stress(es) associated with a strong underlying +NAO/expanded Atlantic Hadley Cell in recent years is to blame for the changes in the deep Atlantic circulation and thermocline.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#4
wx_statman

Posted 25 August 2016 - 05:28 PM

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I'd argue the wind stress(es) associated with a strong underlying +NAO/expanded Atlantic Hadley Cell in recent years is to blame for the changes in the deep Atlantic circulation and thermocline.

 

Well, I don't have the qualifications to argue that point with you. But I do remember reading about the N. Atlantic cold spot and how it ties to meltwater from Greenland. Seemed to make sense. 



#5
weatherfan2012

Posted 25 August 2016 - 05:32 PM

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Robert Filex posted this Article on his blog site as well iceagenow that is.

#6
Phil

Posted 25 August 2016 - 08:08 PM

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Well, I don't have the qualifications to argue that point with you. But I do remember reading about the N. Atlantic cold spot and how it ties to meltwater from Greenland. Seemed to make sense.


True, but really if anything the rate of Greenland melting has slowed since 2012, thanks to the raging +NAO summers in recent years. If this NATL cooling had occurred following a string of warm/-NAO summers, that'd be another story.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#7
snow_wizard

Posted 26 August 2016 - 04:16 PM

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To me it seems to be an East Coast thing where everyone thinks the Atlantic rules the world.  I'm not so sure.

 

That graph certainly is intriguing though.  I wonder if the lag from the solar grand maximum is beginning to wear off.  Makes sense the Atlantic would react first since it's smaller.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#8
snow_wizard

Posted 26 August 2016 - 04:18 PM

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I don't know what others think of the WUWT site, but they've posted an interesting article on the North Atlantic temps. With a number of graphs charting the history. Worth sauntering through it.

I think as it stands right now, it's more likely to deliver some cold weather to Europe but not globally.
The current solar cycle isn't appreciably different from the last one.

https://wattsupwitht...global-cooling/

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg
Monthly heat content anomaly in the uppermost 700 metres of the North Atlantic

 

I think this solar cycle is actually on course to be much lower than the last one.  For the point of the cycle we are at we've already had an impressive number of spotless days since the solar max compared to previous cycles.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#9
Black Hole

Posted 28 August 2016 - 03:44 PM

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As wxstatman said, the one place on earth actually expected to see cooling with global warming is the north Atlantic. There are a couple of reasons for this including increased melt, and changes to the oceanic circulation. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#10
Andie

Posted 29 August 2016 - 06:23 AM

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I'm enjoying the discussion. I was thinking about this this weekend and I recalled a study that Cambridge Univ. did back in 2004 in the North Atlantic.

They announced that one or perhaps two of the "pumps" in the North Atlantic have ceased to operate. Would this not affect the temps in the Northern Atlantic reaches first or early on as the global circulation slows ? It's 12 years on now from that study. I've not run across any current information on that but it would be interesting to know how the pumps and circulation tie into the North Atlantic temps.
Any thoughts?
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#11
snow_wizard

Posted 29 August 2016 - 09:26 PM

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As wxstatman said, the one place on earth actually expected to see cooling with global warming is the north Atlantic. There are a couple of reasons for this including increased melt, and changes to the oceanic circulation. 

 

That idea is the premise for that movie they did a few years back about a sudden ice age developing.

 

I still think it's premature to say any warming we have experienced isn't a natural cycle.  As I've said before sea level managed to rise over 50 feet since the last ice age and most of that had nothing to with AGW.  I just laugh when the global warming freaks go nuts over a sea level rise of 1 inch.  Everything we have seen is well within the envelope of what could happen all by itself.  But that's a different topic of course...


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#12
Phil

Posted 29 August 2016 - 09:43 PM

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That idea is the premise for that movie they did a few years back about a sudden ice age developing.

I still think it's premature to say any warming we have experienced isn't a natural cycle. As I've said before sea level managed to rise over 50 feet since the last ice age and most of that had nothing to with AGW. I just laugh when the global warming freaks go nuts over a sea level rise of 1 inch. Everything we have seen is well within the envelope of what could happen all by itself. But that's a different topic of course...


Sea levels have risen hundreds of meters since the last ice age.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"