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Summer Forecast Contest 2019

climate summer temperature forecast contest
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#51
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:04 PM

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DCA running a whopping +.2!


A negative departure there would have been hilarious. But alas, all good things must come to an end. :(

That anomaly is gonna go berserk at the last minute.

yn2g99E.png
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#52
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:05 PM

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A negative departure there would have been hilarious.

But alas, all good things must come to an end. :( That anomaly is gonna go berserk last minute.

yn2g99E.png

 

 

That looks colder than normal.

 

I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100?


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#53
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:09 PM

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That looks colder than normal.

I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100?


Haha. You’re talking about North Bend, right?

My condolences on the -45*F anomalies this week. :P
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#54
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:11 PM

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In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week.

hoaL6ol.png
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#55
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:20 PM

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In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week.

hoaL6ol.png

Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day.

 

It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right.



#56
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:15 PM

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Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day.

It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right.


Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4).

That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. :)
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#57
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:49 PM

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Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4).

That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. :)

 

 

Was not really meant for you... just for clarification.



#58
Front Ranger

Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:54 PM

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In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week.

hoaL6ol.png


Tack on the customary 5-10 degrees to account for its cool bias and not looking that impressive.

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#59
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:37 PM

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So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure.

1aU6kC8.jpg

And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures.

ZGjx0yx.jpg
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#60
Kayla

Posted 25 June 2019 - 06:13 AM

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So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure.

And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures.
 

 

SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata.

 

Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over!


Cold Season 2019/20:

Total snowfall: 14.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 8.0"

Highest snow depth: 5.0"

Coldest high: 27.0º
Coldest low: 10.9º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#61
TT-SEA

Posted 25 June 2019 - 06:34 AM

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SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata.

 

Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over!

 

And the daily departures are not meaningful in terms of the monthly departure.    They don't just add up the daily departures.  


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#62
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 06:08 AM

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Final June numbers:

 

SEA +2.7

 

OLM +1.0

 

PDX +2.1

 

CQT +0.9

 

DEN -1.8

 

DCA +1.2


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#63
Phil

Posted 08 July 2019 - 09:49 AM

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Could finally have a negative departure @ DCA today. Still only 73*F as of 130pm.

Crapload of rain..3.3” fell in just 1 hour. Between 5-6” in nearby areas. That’s a lot of water.

https://www.wrh.noaa...id=KDCA&num=168
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#64
Phil

Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Now approaching 50 days above 90*F @ DCA. Probably less than 10 days under 90*F since late June. ☹️

Looks like many more to come as well. I think 60+ is within reach this year.
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#65
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2019 - 12:52 PM

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Now approaching 50 days above 90*F @ DCA. Probably less than 10 days under 90*F since late June. ☹️

Looks like many more to come as well. I think 60+ is within reach this year.


What's the record?

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#66
Phil

Posted 17 August 2019 - 03:01 PM

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What's the record?


I think (for the modern DCA location) it’s 67 days in 2010 but I’m not 100% sure about that.

But there’s not much variance. Even “cool” summers such as 2013 and 2014 rack up 25+ days above 90*F.

NkzDzNx.jpg
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#67
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 17 August 2019 - 05:07 PM

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I think (for the modern DCA location) it’s 67 days in 2010 but I’m not 100% sure about that.

But there’s not much variance. Even “cool” summers such as 2013 and 2014 rack up 25+ days above 90*F.

NkzDzNx.jpg


Now I know why they call it the swamp. ♨️

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#68
Front Ranger

Posted 22 August 2019 - 07:59 PM

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Welp, looks like yet another trophy to add to the case.

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#69
ShawniganLake

Posted 22 August 2019 - 09:07 PM

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Welp, looks like yet another trophy to add to the case.

You got this thing all wrapped up?

#70
Phil

Posted 22 August 2019 - 10:14 PM

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Welp, looks like my first ever trophy! Yay me!


Fixed, assuming you’ve done your math correctly. ;)
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#71
Front Ranger

Posted 23 August 2019 - 07:41 AM

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Zero math has been done on my end.


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#72
Phil

Posted 23 August 2019 - 08:09 AM

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Zero math has been done on my end.


I was kidding, man. All I know is that I probably came in last. #UHIfail
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#73
Phil

Posted 23 August 2019 - 05:54 PM

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Primary reason for my busts..nighttime lows. It has been two months since DCA fell below 65*F. The 7th longest stretch on record. Might finally happen tonight!

Edit: Yay, just barely did it. Fell to 64*F last night, which is the coldest low since June 23rd & just the 10th sub-70*F low since the summer solstice. Lol..

Ote2GaJ.jpg
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#74
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 August 2019 - 06:04 AM

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2 days remain. Hope to get the results by this weekend.



#75
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:20 AM

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Guesses are ready to be compared with the actual results.

 

Attached File  SFCGuesses2019.png   49.08KB   0 downloads


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#76
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:19 PM

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Results are here. ShawniganLake is the winner.

 

Congratulations ShawniganLake.

 

Attached File  SFCActualDep.png   7.9KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  SFCResults2019.png   934.97KB   0 downloads


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#77
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:44 PM

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Thanks for taking the time to calculate these MR marine layer
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#78
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:50 PM

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Congrats to Shawinigan. Seconded re: appreciation for the quick scoring.

I didn’t do as terrible in the PNW as I thought I would. Turns out it was DEN and DCA (lol) that killed me. For some reason DCA has been running exceptionally warm at night lately. Not sure what happened @ DEN. Probably just a typical pattern bust.
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#79
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:51 PM

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Thanks for taking the time to calculate these MR marine layer


You're welcome. Congrats again on winning it.

#80
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:53 PM

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Looks like I’m tied for 3rd. I’ll take it considering I put zero work into my guess.

#81
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 04:58 PM

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Sophomore slump for frontal snowsquall.

#82
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 September 2019 - 06:57 AM

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Sophomore slump for frontal snowsquall.


My forecast of a seasonal summer for the PNW backfired on me. I should of just went with another torch of a summer. 🔥

Congrats on winning it. Here is the Summer Trophy, enjoy it for the next year! 🏆

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#83
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:19 AM

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My forecast of a seasonal summer for the PNW backfired on me. I should of just went with another torch of a summer. 🔥

Congrats on winning it. Here is the Summer Trophy, enjoy it for the next year! 🏆

The beer is going to taste great from this highly coveted trophy
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#84
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:27 AM

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I ended up too cold at all the PNW stations.   My cold bias got me again.   ^_^

 

Predicting a warm summer across the board was clearly the way to go!



#85
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:46 AM

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I ended up too cold at all the PNW stations. My cold bias got me again. ^_^

Predicting a warm summer across the board was clearly the way to go!


So was it a wet and gloomy summer, a perfectly normal summer, or a warmer than average torch.

Your narrative seems to switch just about every other week depending on the context. ^_^

#86
MossMan

Posted 02 September 2019 - 04:59 PM

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Warm ups and cool downs upcoming down the road.

Looks like your prediction was the closest. You win.





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