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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/05/21 in all areas
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Raining. Columbia will be frozen over in Portland by December 7th.5 points
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I post from Lake Tahoe since our weather is a closer match to the PNW than California. Also the members on here like to see snow pictures!5 points
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That's quite a brash statement to be making in early October. I'm no wishcaster, and I'm not trying to manifest a cold winter here, but you seem to be banking the entirety your grave prophecy on a single index, this easterly QBO. Every other potential influence is pointing straight at deep troughing in the west. Again, I could be wrong, but you're acting as if the writing is on the wall here when in reality things are looking brighter than they have been in half a decade. Hell, we're already spying hints of a SPV breakdown. In October! That doesn't happen this early. You've been talking about searching for something to disrupt our impending zonal doom, and well, this is it.4 points
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Crucify me at the stake for saying this if you must, but analogs donāt mean sh*t in my opinion. The recorded reliable and detailed weather history is unbelievably short and insignificant in the scheme of things. It is not reliably possible to make long-term predictions based on previous years with some similar attributes. There are far too many variables without even factoring in man-made or man-expedited change. Did any analogs show PDX having a warm winter followed by a handily record dry spring followed by the hottest temperature of all-time by 9 degrees at the beginning of summer? Mother Nature will do what she wants. We have gotten very good at short-term forecasting and forecasting likely trends in the mid-term. Long-termā¦ we suck. I canāt tell you how many times I have seen weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts completely bust. So much so that a monkey seemingly has the same odds of forecasting weather as the most skilled human forecaster when dealing with anything beyond a couple of weeks out. Data mining will continue to improve as the amount of data increases and computers continue to get smarter. For now, we canāt do much more than provide a guess by an educated person. Not even an educated guess.4 points
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Has to be part of the new pattern. But how much will this affect the central US?4 points
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The Euro and GFS show a nice storm for KC on Monday. If this verifies it would be a great, we need some rain and it could possibly produce wintery precip in future cycles.4 points
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I'll post, maybe when a bigger than average t'storm happens or if we get a white Christmas/New Years. If Ashland has nearby sirens I gotta take video of that.4 points
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Nice to have more people from eastern WA post. We have 2 posters over there one in Leavenworth and another in Spokane so itās nice to have a 3rd one.4 points
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Any chance you can stay an extra month to get a few flakes in? We will be jealous of you when you get downpours in summer during fire season. Today's high in Garfield County where I am is about 73-75 and tomorrow's will be about 55-57 with our first low temp in the 30's. Hoping our tomatoes and gourds get another week in. Thanks for letting an Eastern WA resident in this forum. Wasn't sure if we were allowed here but Timmy posts from KFalls so all good.4 points
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Wow, the "Garibaldi curve" on 101 is pretty well defined on GR24 points
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The 2018 thread was fun to go through. Everyone was soooo done with winter and it was like 99% pictures of Timās moms daffodils and then Phil was like woah here comes a SSW with a modified QBO and phase 9 wave runner MJD and then Andrew was like hey the GEM isnāt so bad at day 10 and then it was off to the races! Wine es good IMG_6690.MOV3 points
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Euro time!! just read through the ol' feb 2019 threads to get me pumped up.3 points
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Hopefully we arenāt burning all our load this October. Seems like weāll perhaps set ourselves up for a warmer/wetter Nov. hopefully then this comes back Dec./Jan. Fun times!!3 points
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You should be getting a lot more supercells in Kentucky! (I think, I know nothing about that state)3 points
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Mild this morning at 54. Looking forward to a wet day so I can get more work done on senior pictures hah3 points
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If we get a warm November after a cold NiƱa October, you bet your a** I'll be excited as hell. Historically that's about as surefire as it gets for an arctic blast in December or January. Hell, the connection between mild Novembers and cold winters is one of the most strongly paired seasonal correlations this region has. It's sort of like a barometer for the rest of the winter.3 points
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I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this. It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?3 points
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Cloudy with an east breeze and low 70s. More fall like but still AN. When will we ever get out of this AN pattern? Seems like its been that way all year. I wonder how many AN to BN days I've had this year. Need that pattern change!2 points
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We had maybe an inch or two of snow in the last week of October last year. That was more than we had for the next two months. We scored about a foot in that same storm you guys got in PDX and South Sound too. Our neighbors said the Oct snow was unusual since most of our snow is late season. We have more snow days than those on the west side, but since I'm in a moderate rain/snow shadow (not as bad as central WA thankfully) you guys have higher potential for storm totals than we do. Used to live close to Moss man (close to Stanwood HS) and would use his forecasts as a lurker to determine snow days.2 points
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The trough in la la land for the GFS is the most ridiculous and beautiful thing I've ever seen, especially for Oct. Got snap back into reality because it's 350+ hours out. Almost want to frame it for the heck of it.2 points
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Still very possible that we don't get our first sub-32 temp here in the next two weeks. Depends on how that CO Low tracks. We're well past the average first freeze here and I believe the average first hard freeze is coming up. I haven't even gotten below 40.2 points
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