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My kid said dada for the first time today . He also followed that up with saying that Vancouver to Redding is going to rival the North Pole

Gonna change back to admin for the duration of this event in case the politics talk gets out of hand again or small changes need to be made to titles, pins, ect. User numbers are skyrocketing so the more help the better

https://x.com/kseattleweather/status/1743437213474734102?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA This is probably why there are so many guests tonight. Also I love how he called us “experts”.

I feel bad for the new people who are just trying to understand what’s going on but people are blurting out complete nonsense.

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-me-to-doxx-his-family-based-on-a-series-of-tweets-that-had-nothing-to-do-with-the-weather posts will result in a hard ban. I don’t give a shit if you’re an American MAGA-Monarchist living in the hills of Oregon with your family, guns, and misunderstood Gadsen flags, or if your a Canadian Trotskyite living in the hills of the Lower Mainland with your Funko Pops, Che Shirts, and misunderstood Red Banner. I hate you both. Use the political shit box to publicly show to the world how much of an idiot you are so that Google and Internet Archive can capture it for posterity. Lastly, if you’re going to challenge a weather personality here, do it on the merits of weather. We all know that way too many of these folks have skeletons in their retweets, but again, we have a whole section you can make a fool of yourself over. Only Ryan Mauę is free game because that guy is a dick. If you think it isn’t political to say something that could be seen as political, it’s probably fucking political.

Live look at the servers...

This forum has a knack for being its weirdest/potentially offensive when the most strangers are pointed this way.

I'm in! Thank you

New member joins and starts casually posting frequently. Me: nice to see great welcome Also me: pretty sure this person is domebuster

Lurker here. Finally decided to join. Never trust the 18z is my motto.

Snow thru 240 hrs on the druncle ensemble.

Day 9 vs last two runs

By the way, NOAA is doing Pacific recon flights to sample air masses off the coast, so that may give better skill in tomorrow's model runs.

Final snow totals lol.

Looks like a major blast on the way! Here's another view

I think i see phil's girlfriend in this one

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

I love it (I hate it) how every model run there is the "its game over" crowd, the "nothings changed" crowd and the "looks better to me" crowd. All of which providing zero context for their positions...

6z EPS

Jesus! All I did was get the kids ready for bed lol!

Icon nearly 10 degrees colder Friday/Saturday for the Seattle area compared to the 12z. Dang!

Seems like the entire PNW caught word of this at the same time today. If this thing busts, the outcry will be epic and far from this forum.

Day 11 EPS. Growing signal for the Alaskan Ridge hanging on longer

Maybe breaking the January curse will finally mean we break the hot summer curse too.

The thing is that a lot of our historic blasts were a nose hair away from being non-events or of the dreaded border hugger variety. December 1968, December 1964, a lot of January 1950, January 1909 just to name a few. Events with sharp boundaries teetering on the fringes of the region. I think our perspective of the past biggies is that they were all these hulking 500mb monsters that sailed smoothly through the entire region and set up shop, but the reality was often a little different. And I'm sure that volatility would have wreaked just as much havoc on the fragile weenie psyches of the time had our model friends been around.

Sensing this event is going to be very snowy for western WA. Likely will be positioned perfectly between cold air and moisture sources.

Gets there Friday but man we've been burned by these N/S events getting held up at customs a LOT in the last 6-7 years

The GFS runs make me think of a Tonga fueled 'Day After Tomorrow' scenario for the PNW.

-30F in Portland would in practice kill thousands of people. This is truly, to the word, an apocalyptic GFS run.

That is dry snow too... in the 20s with easterly flow keeping cold air in place.

Are you dabears?

We lost the GFS, Euro, and either the UK or GEM for about two days with about a week to go for February 2019.

FWIW the 00z UKMET is a massive improvement over the crap 12z run from earlier today 12z 00z Final frame of tonight's run Thursday evening it has -13c 850s into SEA and -11c over PDX

Just one time I want the truly arctic stuff to actually make it this far south and not get watered down as we approach the event. I just want to see what this climate is still capable of. I think we still have a shot since the Euro is onboard but this could still either be a total non-event or end up being a very sharp north-south gradient with cold air never really making it down here and western WA getting snow. I can't say I feel too great about it. I suspect tonight's 00z GFS is wonky though. This low bombing to 972mb like this just seems completely out of the blue and doesn't look right.

9 degree drop on the ICON for next Thursday night vs the 12z.

Historically this has never been this forum. There's a huge variety of ways folks could learn more meteorology basics that I would strongly encourage; textbooks, classes at your local college, online courses, pro met blogs, even youtube videos, etc. This is an enthusiast forum full of a cast of characters largely intimately familiar with one another playing a huge variety of roles. This is more like a Shakespearean play for people who love weather. If you're here to figure out what's really going on, you're boned. If you're here to experience the gamut of human emotions and pick up what you can along the way, heck yeah have a seat.

Dude you wont change the forum, we like it the way it is, the new people will learn the dynamics. That is what makes this place special.

Oh my god this is horrible!!!!

GEFS is still good

Has anyone checked on Phil. I imagine he’s on a plane to go measure the EAMT in person. Clearly the models aren’t depositing enough momentum in the NAM.

The Spire is insanely cold.

It's more meaningful when it's less than a week out.

Control doing control things.

It's just exciting to have the possibility of a historic event on the table. Just getting to this point is almost impossible, to see these runs is really something. The fact these are the most aggressive runs with cold in snow maybe ever since weather computers were invented is amazing and makes me think something special is coming.

!

Worth noting that although this frame says it bottoms out at -43F east of the Cascades, the terrain resolution of the GFS can not adequately account for the cold valleys like Winthrop and Mazama. In this scenario, those locations would likely not just break the all time WA state record of -48F, they would absolutely obliterate it.