December Observations and Discussions

[Andrew NE]

Lol was thinking the same thing.

[Andrew NE]

GFS at hour 300 is garbage unfortunately. The moisture from this storm is just insane, if only it was it all snow.

[Maxim]

GFS is all over the place lately, especially in the long range.

[Tom]

Live by the models, die by the models...GEFS/EPS night & day with what happens to the EPO around the 19th/20th which is setting us up towards a system around the Solstice and Christmas.  30-day cycle had a 5-day system around Thanksgiving that will be making an appearance during this time.  Not saying it will be an exact repeat but certainly is interesting.  Let's see if there is a different result as more cold air will be in the pattern, esp in western Canada.

[Geos]

GFS at hour 300 is garbage unfortunately. The moisture from this storm is just insane, if only it was it all snow.

 

No, that is snow for you.

For Chicago it is garbage.

 

 

Then there this... a day late.

 

[Andrew NE]

Yea it would be a good snow I just meant unlikely to verify 300 hours Geo. We shall wait and see.

[winterfreak]

Was watching that loop on the GFS. Kind of odd looking. An 09 Xmas blizzard repeat would be swell. What an epic storm that was. Oops got carried away for a second their.

[Geos]

Yea it would be a good snow I just meant unlikely to verify 300 hours Geo. We shall wait and see.

'O - now I gotcha. 

 

Would be totally bogus if there was a snowstorm on the 26th here and to get missed a few days earlier by one.

[Maxim]

Kinda strange how the warm front barely made any northward progression. Reminds me of something you'd see in early spring, not mid December...

[OKwx2k4]

How nice of the GFS to tease me with 6" of snow on Christmas night.

[OKwx2k4]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/962

 

This is a good link and worth a read. Thought it fit to share here.

[westMJim]

Appreciate the shout out Tom. If BUF repeats, then my disappointment with last November will too. I need a WNW flow for mby or at least a due west flow, anything south of due west will be good for a lot of SWMI, but not me. That's what happened last year.

 

 

What is the right wind direction for your place? Guessing it's not the same as for me. So one of us may be a happy camper and the other a lonesome loser. Good call on the best snow maxima being about half a county further inland due to lake warmth. Seen that many times with warm lake waters.the 

The very best here is wsw wind with a w being second and a wnw coming in third. Not good here with a NW wind

[westMJim]

Just had a nice little thunder shower roll thru here. Temp is at 50°

[WBadgersW]

I'm currently sitting at 57°. If only it was sunny...

[Geos]

The very best here is wsw wind with a w being second and a wnw coming in third. Not good here with a NW wind

 

Does the shape of the coastline block the LES from coming into Grand Rapids in a NW wind? 

 

Up to 60° here. Solid clouds and damp.

[gosaints]

Gfs only.cuts 4 systems west of here

[Andrew NE]

This pattern sucks, yes the moisture is beneficial, but we don't need 3" rains in December. Doesn't look like much will change through the new year. Have tallied just a hair under 1.60" so far with much more to roll through.

[winterfreak]

Cutter after cutter after cutter that cuts west of most on the subforum.

[gosaints]

Gefs is a broken record straight through its run again.

[westMJim]

Does the shape of the coastline block the LES from coming into Grand Rapids in a NW wind? 

 

Up to 60° here. Solid clouds and damp.

I like in NW Grand Rapids so with a north west wind my part of town is further away from the lake. On the SW part of town that is not the case and that part of town does real well with any west wind (W, SW and NW) in fact they do the best with a NW wind.

[westMJim]

It is now 60° here  in Grand Rapids with a 58° dew point that 60° sets a new record high for December 13^th breaking the old record of 57° set in 1920!

[gosaints]

If week 2 guidance is right records gonna fall hard

[Maxim]

If week 2 guidance is right records gonna fall hard

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121312/gfs_T2ma_us_43.png

[Maxim]

The warmth might even be more extreme with that system than this one.

[Money]

Shut up

[Money]

The same posters who are posting maps of hr 264 gfs are the same posters who would say gfs is useless in the long range when it shows a huge snowstorm

[Maxim]

well if people are going to be posting 324 hour surface maps of snowstorms that have no chance of verifying, then I definitely think it's fair for me to post 264 hr maps that indicate potentially well above average temps, and have a much better chance of verifying.

[Money]

The thing is you are the one who would be saying gfs is useless in the long range etc you're a hypocrite

[gosaints]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f276.gif

 

At least there is.plenty of ensemble support.

[Geos]

well if people are going to be posting 324 hour surface maps of snowstorms that have no chance of verifying, then I definitely think it's fair for me to post 264 hr maps that indicate potentially well above average temps, and have a much better chance of verifying.

 

Or have a chance of failing too.

No one knows what the pattern will really do. 

 

Money is right, you have said the GFS is useless. No model is perfect. I hardly ever look at surface maps beyond day 10. The upper air maps have a better chance of verifying then the surface or 850mb ones do.

[Maxim]

Or have a chance of failing too.

No one knows what the pattern will really do. 

 

Money is right, you have said the GFS is useless. No model is perfect. I hardly ever look at surface maps beyond day 10. The upper air maps have a better chance of verifying then the surface or 850mb ones do.

Yes, true. In the past said I've said that the GFS is useless when it comes to surface temps. And there is some truth to that actually, though it seems to be doing better lately in that regard.

[GDR]

Local weatherman said our chances of a white Christmas are less then 25percent

[Iowa2015]

Ditto here Weatherman said tonight unlikely it be a white Christmas here. Traveling to Washington state for the Holidays hoping for a white Christmas there. Extended modals not looking very good for a Snowy or cold thougth the end of the year. Hopefully by the time i return after the new year there a pattern change in Jan.

[Niko]

Another balmy day here in SEMI. Wow, it felt like Spring. The sky had this hazy look to it as if it were April. Too bad December will go to waste. Hopefully, it provides us with a big snowstorm b4 the month is out.

 

FWIW: My uncle told me couple days ago that if November gives a snowstorm, then, the whole winter is screwed. Im not sure I believe that "Old Say", but hoping is not true.

 

BTW: Accu-Weather has 40s for my area right into January 8th. Yikes!!!!! Im guessing they are not seeing any change in the pattern. Give me 2 good snowstorms in an strong El Nino pattern and I am a happy camper for the whole entire winter season. ( Umm, 18"+ per 2 storms)   

[bud2380]

The long range has more rain storms in the offing. There is really no extended cold air remotely on the horizon. Every time a model shows a system moving in, there is just warm air all around. Snow chances looking pretty slim from now until the end of the year for many/most of us on here. Some places in Nebraska and Minnesota and possibly northern Wisconsin could be the only exceptions.

[GDR]

So are we past wait for the second half of December?

[Money]

Are you banned yet?

[bud2380]

And naturally as I state that the 00z gfs shows a possible storm with even some snow around Christmas Eve into Christmas, long ways off though.

[GDR]

Are you banned yet?

simple ? No need to backlash.

[Geos]

Yes, true. In the past said I've said that the GFS is useless when it comes to surface temps. And there is some truth to that actually, though it seems to be doing better lately in that regard.

 

Always interesting seeing which models are the most accurate as the winter season starts. Some do better in certain scenarios than others.