Tom Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 There are a lot of big cutters showing up on the 12z EPS..majority of them are sub 996mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Most of the members have a storm?Prob 70-80% I'd say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 EPS leaves out IA nearly completely............................ Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z EPS has come up farther north from last night's 00z run...if trends continue, might have to start a storm thread tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep time for the storm track to go south of Nebraska. Looks like it won't be too active around here for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why does it have to go south of Nebraska? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Big changes on 18z gfs again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 995 in co at hr 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 995.2 in KS at hr 111 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cuts it up to mo and towards Chicago 8-10+ for southern wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Now it cuts too far west. The models are so inconsistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Now it cuts too far west. The models are so inconsistent.The key is that it's developing a big storm Track will vary over the next few days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 BULLSEYE! Dont move GFS Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Geos is such a weenie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think Geoscis right with this one though. All of that cold air in Canada has to push this south. Hopefully not to the point where it completely misses the entire sub forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011012/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_6.pngnahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, its good where it is. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011012/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_6.pngSmh I used to think you were one of the best posters here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hey with all the cold air and snow cover getting established, most of the models, except the GFS is trending towards a storm that will track close to the Ohio Valley or I-70. We don't get cutters with a -AO and -NAO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 0z GFS is even going to be farther NW than 18z. 991 L in N. MO at HR 117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 989 over DBQ at HR 129 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS 132 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/sfcconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/24hkucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS 132 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/sfcconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/24hkucherasnowconus.png It's actually good to see these NW solutions because I'm still more worried about suppression. When I've been looking at ensembles for the GFS (and Euro as well) many more are weak and/or suppressed than cutting through the Western Lakes like the 0z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM is north as well. 998 in NE MO at HR 108 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wut GGEM HR 120 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Looks weird the way the low ends up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM is north as well. 998 in NE MO at HR 108 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif It's best we all strap in for a wild week of model watching, as I think this storm is going to be all over the map given the way things have gone in recent years, and with snow cover, a block and a couple clipper systems to factor in, these projections will be changing by the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Please shift south like 100-200 miles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 what kind of N oriented weird snowband is that GFS Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Then HR 144 it has a 970 L in New England lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 This looks to be a very interesting system that looks to result in a major winter storm for somebody. The key is for the southern stream to phase with a piece of a polar vortex that drops south. Similar to the last system we tracked pretty much any slight change in time of either waves will result in a different outcome. I wouldn't get too invested in what any of the models are showing now being this is bound to change many times as we get closer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 the 00z GFS is all sorts of strange lol. No other model has nearly as much warm air as it does either. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is out to lunch, imo.Need to the energy to transfer east sooner. Dont' understand why this system would be a cutter vs. a bowling ball type system. Great looking Colorado Low in the beginning and then it starts doing all kind of weird things. lol Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is out to lunch, imo.Need to the energy to transfer east sooner. Not sure why you think that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is out to lunch, imo.Need to the energy to transfer east sooner. Dont' understand why this system would be a cutter vs. a bowling ball type system. Great looking Colorado Low in the beginning and then it starts doing all kind of weird things. lol The GFS takes it negative tilt really quick which causes it to go more north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS takes it negative tilt really quick which causes it to go more north But there is a giant high to the north...If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 That insane amount of warm air though... 40s?!?!?! That's not right. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure why you think that. it would stop the warm air advance from turning us both over to rain. Occlude the low and we end up staying frozen. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 But I guess the low track doesn't make sense either on the GFS so the WS would be out of place. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 But there is a giant high to the north...If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast. There's no giant high to the north on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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