Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

There are a lot of big cutters showing up on the 12z EPS..majority of them are sub 996mb

[Tom]

Most of the members have a storm?

Prob 70-80% I'd say...

[hlcater]

EPS leaves out IA nearly completely............................

[Tom]

12z EPS has come up farther north from last night's 00z run...if trends continue, might have to start a storm thread tomorrow.

[NEJeremy]

Yep time for the storm track to go south of Nebraska. Looks like it won't be too active around here for a while.

[Money]

Why does it have to go south of Nebraska?

[Money]

Big changes on 18z gfs again

[Money]

995 in co at hr 96

[Money]

995.2 in KS at hr 111

[Money]

Cuts it up to mo and towards Chicago

 

8-10+ for southern wi

[winterfreak]

Now it cuts too far west. The models are so inconsistent.

[Money]

Now it cuts too far west. The models are so inconsistent.

The key is that it's developing a big storm

 

Track will vary over the next few days

[hlcater]

BULLSEYE! Dont move GFS

[Niko]

 

[Geos]

Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada.

 

[Money]

Geos is such a weenie

[winterfreak]

I think Geoscis right with this one though. All of that cold air in Canada has to push this south. Hopefully not to the point where it completely misses the entire sub forum.

[hlcater]

Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011012/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_6.png

nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, its good where it is.

[Money]

Lol at the GFS. If anything the storm will trend south with that massive cold air dome eastern Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011012/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_6.png

Smh I used to think you were one of the best posters here

[Geos]

Hey with all the cold air and snow cover getting established, most of the models, except the GFS is trending towards a storm that will track close to the Ohio Valley or I-70. We don't get cutters with a -AO and -NAO.

[Money]

0z GFS is even going to be farther NW than 18z.

 

991 L in N. MO at HR 117 

[Money]

989 over DBQ at HR 129 lol 

[Money]

GFS 132

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/sfcconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS 132

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/sfcconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f132/24hkucherasnowconus.png

 

It's actually good to see these NW solutions because I'm still more worried about suppression.  When I've been looking at ensembles for the GFS (and Euro as well) many more are weak and/or suppressed than cutting through the Western Lakes like the 0z GFS.

[Money]

GGEM is north as well.

 

998 in NE MO at HR 108

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[Money]

Wut

 

GGEM HR 120

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

 

Looks weird the way the low ends up

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GGEM is north as well.

 

998 in NE MO at HR 108

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

 

It's best we all strap in for a wild week of model watching, as I think this storm is going to be all over the map given the way things have gone in recent years, and with snow cover, a block and a couple clipper systems to factor in, these projections will be changing by the run.

[winterfreak]

Please shift south like 100-200 miles.

[hlcater]

what kind of N oriented weird snowband is that GFS

[Money]

Then HR 144 it has a 970 L in New England lol 

[Scott26]

This looks to be a very interesting system that looks to result in a major winter storm for somebody. The key is for the southern stream to phase with a piece of a polar vortex that drops south. Similar to the last system we tracked pretty much any slight change in time of either waves will result in a different outcome. I wouldn't get too invested in what any of the models are showing now being this is bound to change many times as we get closer.

[hlcater]

the 00z GFS is all sorts of strange lol. No other model has nearly as much warm air as it does either.

[Geos]

GFS is out to lunch, imo.

Need to the energy to transfer east sooner.

 

Dont' understand why this system would be a cutter vs. a bowling ball type system. Great looking Colorado Low in the beginning and then it starts doing all kind of weird things. lol

[Money]

GFS is out to lunch, imo.

Need to the energy to transfer east sooner.

 

Not sure why you think that. 

[Money]

GFS is out to lunch, imo.

Need to the energy to transfer east sooner.

 

Dont' understand why this system would be a cutter vs. a bowling ball type system. Great looking Colorado Low in the beginning and then it starts doing all kind of weird things. lol

 

The GFS takes it negative tilt really quick which causes it to go more north 

[Geos]

The GFS takes it negative tilt really quick which causes it to go more north 

 

But there is a giant high to the north...

If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast.

[hlcater]

That insane amount of warm air though... 40s?!?!?! That's not right.

[Geos]

Not sure why you think that. 

 

it would stop the warm air advance from turning us both over to rain. Occlude the low and we end up staying frozen.

[hlcater]

But I guess the low track doesn't make sense either on the GFS so the WS would be out of place.

[Money]

But there is a giant high to the north...

If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast.

 

There's no giant high to the north on the GFS