12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Madtown]

This would be nuts...people go to bed expecting .2 of ice and 3inches of snow and wake up to a forecast of 8 to 12in

[Money]

Yeah we'll see. Not buying the snow yet but all it takes is a bit cooler temps and who knows. A lot of qpf forecasted

[Geos]

This would be nuts...people go to bed expecting .2 of ice and 3inches of snow and wake up to a forecast of 8 to 12in

 

Lol, might be you!

 

Can see nicely where the front ended up at. All the way to Graceland.

 

 

http://hint.fm/wind/

[East Dubzz]

Don't know if it'll mean anything, but the current SLP is intriguing at least.

[Money]

MKE updated their snow amounts an hour ago to 3-6 inches across all of southern WI. 

 

They did say this: "High confidence that a significant amount of precip will fall. Less confidence in the temperature forecast. Subtle temp changes could result in drastically different precip types."

[Money]

Nam coming in SE big time through hr 12

[Money]

995.8 in S/SE MO at HR 17. 18z NAM had it in SW/W MO.

[Geos]

Checking surface temps with hi-res models. RGEM and NMM spot on with temps. 18z 4km NAM lagged on the freezing line position a bit.

[ToastedRavs]

Ruh roh! Adjustments galore if this keeps up!

[Money]

NAM also showing the snow in southern WI. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Nam coming in SE big time through hr 12

 

About freaking time!

[Guest Snowball]

I think Nebraska will the bed on this one! It has been slowly drifting south and east for days. It still has been fun tracking. Thanks for all the information out guys!

[ToastedRavs]

Although this may be good news for me outside Des Moines. Not so good for my pick to click as far as snowiest town!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Rap showing snow in southern wi as well with the low down to. 990 in s mo

 

The RAP looks good, but the latest HRRR was so crazy I almost think I need new glasses (or a new pair of pants lol).

[Money]

NAM might take the low to the south of Chicago. It switches southern WI back to sleet but shows 1-2 inches of snow at least before that. 

[Geos]

I've always struggled trying to project low tracks with pressure/height falls. Seems to be misleading much of the time.

 

That map updates every hour though and is usually pretty accurate.

 

If this center passes over the corner of LA and into south central AR, then I think it will be safe to say the low will stay on the east side of everything.

[jcwxguy]

3-4 for Lincoln on nam lol, still fun to track though

[WildWisconsinWeather]

NAM might take the low to the south of Chicago. It switches southern WI back to sleet but shows 1-2 inches of snow at least before that. 

 

It's a major win if we stay all sleet and snow (which I'm sure you will, but not as sure from Milwaukee/Janesville and south).

[bainbridgekid]

If this center passes over the corner of LA and into south central AR, then I think it will be safe to say the low will stay on the east side of everything.

Agreed.

[Tom]

Although this may be good news for me outside Des Moines. Not so good for my pick to click as far as snowiest town!

Bullseye Rochester...Gosaints gonna get buried IMO...it has everything go for it...

[Money]

NAM showing 20 inches of snow near gosaints area with more to come...

 

Showing 4 inch per hr rates. 

[gosaints]

Its directly west of chicago almost on iowa border

[ToastedRavs]

Low passes over Hannibal Mo at 24 hrs. Perfect placement for DSM area

[gosaints]

NAM showing 20 inches of snow near gosaints area with more to come...

 

Showing 4 inch per hr rates.

Lol that has to be the nam being the nam.right.... It basically.stalls the low in west illinois.

[bainbridgekid]

No idea is nam is right but that low isnt going south of chicago on this run..

It starts to double barrel at hour 21 which pulls it back due North. Going to go through extreme Eastern Iowa on this run.

 

Great run for Des Moines, SE Minneapolis and SW Wisconsin.

[Money]

No idea is nam is right but that low isnt going south of chicago on this run..

 

It had the low SW of STL and then all of a sudden it went back north or some crap. Really weird. 

 

Look at this: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122800&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=020

[Tom]

NAM showing 20 inches of snow near gosaints area with more to come...

 

Showing 4 inch per hr rates. 

Nearing 2 Feet...lol

[Money]

It starts to double barrel at hour 21 which pulls it back due North. Going to go through extreme Eastern Iowa on this run.

 

Great run for Des Moines and SE Minneapolis.

 

Isn't it the only model that does this?

[gosaints]

It had the low SW of STL and then all of a sudden it went back north or some crap. Really weird.

 

Look at this: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122800&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=020

Ya I saw that earlier. Hopefully nam is overdoing warm layer for you guys. You should be pretty good either way

[Money]

Nearing 2 Feet...lol

 

Yup. Nearly 1.4-1.5 QPF across WI/IA/MN etc

[gosaints]

Nearing 2 Feet...lol

Would quite a site but I dont.buy what it is cooking.

[Money]

Ya I saw that earlier. Hopefully nam is overdoing warm layer for you guys. You should be pretty good either way

 

Yeah, this is the first run I think that actually flipped S. WI to snow once the precip moves in.  

[East Dubzz]

Why is instant weather maps so different from wxbell as far as snow goes. I get ratios are different when that happens, but it seems wxbell is giving me snow that instant weather maps isn't..

[ToastedRavs]

Good pick by you, Tom. However, I would hate to be relying solely on the NAM. Which I know your not, but still it's the NAM. Lol. Fun times ahead!

[Tom]

Would quite a site but I dont.buy what it is cooking.

Thundersnow???  I've noticed the models are wrapping the convective precip back into the cold sector.

[gosaints]

Why is instant weather maps so different from wxbell as far as snow goes. I get ratios are different when that happens, but it seems wxbell is giving me snow that instant weather maps isn't..

Sleet

[bainbridgekid]

Why is instant weather maps so different from wxbell as far as snow goes. I get ratios are different when that happens, but it seems wxbell is giving me snow that instant weather maps isn't..

The wxbell snow maps count sleet and even freezing rain as snow.

 

It's dumb.

[Tom]

Good pick by you, Tom. However, I would hate to be relying solely on the NAM. Which I know your not, but still it's the NAM. Lol. Fun times ahead!

I hear ya loud and clear!  Apart of me is going off of seasonal trends and the way systems have been stronger than forecast, esp as they head up towards the lakes.

[gosaints]

Thundersnow??? I've noticed the models are wrapping the convective precip back into the cold sector.

Very well could be. Would be something the globals would struggle to pick up.

[Money]

I hear ya loud and clear!  Apart of me is going off of seasonal trends and the way systems have been stronger than forecast, esp as they head up towards the lakes.

 

RAP down to 990.4 at HR 18.