12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[OKwx2k4]

Sitting at 10.75 inches of precip for the total duration of this storm so far (About 28 hours). The Illinois river at Watts, OK is .3 feet away from breaking it's all time flood record. Pretty crazy down here right now. All major highways nearby are shut down somewhere except one. Now the wind is blowing about 30-40 mph. Quite a day.

[bainbridgekid]

 

Please oh please, let the Euro be my hero!  DSM numbers from 0z Euro:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -5.1    -4.6    1030      62       1    0.00     565     541    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -2.9    -5.1    1021      73     100    0.05     560     543    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -3.5    -6.5    1013      91      98    0.41     555     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -3.1    -7.2    1005      91     100    0.65     546     543    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -3.6    -7.5    1006      89      88    0.28     547     542    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -7.3    -9.9    1014      87      60    0.04     550     539    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -6.5    -8.6    1021      85      31    0.00     555     539    

Awesome.

 

Have ORD?

[Money]

OSH?

[ToastedRavs]

Awesome.

 

Have ORD?

 

ORD:

MON 06Z 28-DEC   1.6    -1.3    1029      66       3    0.00     568     545    MON 12Z 28-DEC   0.2    -3.1    1026      69      95    0.02     567     546    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -0.4     0.2    1017      83      99    0.36     563     550    TUE 00Z 29-DEC   0.8     2.0    1003      91      17    0.50     553     551    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   3.6    -0.5     999      97      65    0.18     539     540    TUE 12Z 29-DEC   1.9    -0.4    1005      92      97    0.03     550     547    TUE 18Z 29-DEC   1.6    -3.2    1014      82      21    0.01     558     547    WED 00Z 30-DEC  -0.8    -5.3    1020      79      17    0.00     561     545    

[ToastedRavs]

OSH?

I knew I forgot one!  My bad.  Here you go

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -2.5    -8.9    1033      67      13    0.00     567     541    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -2.1    -3.5    1030      65      16    0.00     564     540    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.8    -4.7    1024      65      80    0.01     561     542    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.8    -2.1    1012      86     100    0.40     556     546    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.4    -5.7    1004      91      86    0.54     540     537    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -0.8    -3.7    1005      93      60    0.08     546     542    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -2.6    -7.1    1013      84      96    0.01     551     540    WED 00Z 30-DEC  -1.9    -8.6    1019      87      49    0.01     554     540    WED 06Z 30-DEC  -3.5    -9.7    1020      92      22    0.00     555     539    

[winterfreak]

Sitting at 10.75 inches of precip for the total duration of this storm so far (About 28 hours). The Illinois river at Watts, OK is .3 feet away from breaking it's all time flood record. Pretty crazy down here right now. All major highways nearby are shut down somewhere except one. Now the wind is blowing about 30-40 mph. Quite a day.

That really sucks man. Imagine this storm with more blocking and a -AO.

[Geos]

Sitting at 10.75 inches of precip for the total duration of this storm so far (About 28 hours). The Illinois river at Watts, OK is .3 feet away from breaking it's all time flood record. Pretty crazy down here right now. All major highways nearby are shut down somewhere except one. Now the wind is blowing about 30-40 mph. Quite a day.

 

I bet you're going to have problems with uprooting trees now. Yikes.

Never seen that much rain in 28 hours.

[Geos]

My idea of where most if not all the precip should be snow. to the left of the line.

 

[ToastedRavs]

Omaha numbers.  I hope you get more than this, I really do! Especially where you were and I know it can happen here too!

MON 06Z 28-DEC -10.6    -5.3    1032      69       1    0.00     564     540    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -8.5    -5.3    1024      70      67    0.00     557     539    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -5.1    -6.3    1015      84      97    0.14     553     541    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -5.7   -10.0    1011      87      96    0.16     548     539    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -6.5   -10.3    1013      86      89    0.05     547     537    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -9.8    -9.8    1018      86      63    0.00     551     537    

[OKwx2k4]

That really sucks man. Imagine this storm with more blocking and a -AO.

No kidding man. I've been saying the same thing all day. Maybe January or February will bring this one back with the Arctic air to back it up.

[bainbridgekid]

 

ORD:

MON 06Z 28-DEC   1.6    -1.3    1029      66       3    0.00     568     545    MON 12Z 28-DEC   0.2    -3.1    1026      69      95    0.02     567     546    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -0.4     0.2    1017      83      99    0.36     563     550    TUE 00Z 29-DEC   0.8     2.0    1003      91      17    0.50     553     551    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   3.6    -0.5     999      97      65    0.18     539     540    TUE 12Z 29-DEC   1.9    -0.4    1005      92      97    0.03     550     547    TUE 18Z 29-DEC   1.6    -3.2    1014      82      21    0.01     558     547    WED 00Z 30-DEC  -0.8    -5.3    1020      79      17    0.00     561     545    

That's a lot of 35 degree rain.

 

Seriously though, it's still 37 degrees here in Evanston so I am expecting mainly cold rain tomorrow. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised but I just don't see us falling to 32 this close to the Lake.

[East Dubzz]

My idea of where most if not all the precip should be snow. to the left of the line.

 

snowline.jpg

Let me look up and see if I can see that line you drew over my house

[OKwx2k4]

I bet you're going to have problems with uprooting trees now. Yikes.

Never seen that much rain in 28 hours.

Yeah. There are trees falling over in my road right now actually. Luckily though, my yard is pretty rocky so I don't have to worry about any of my bigger trees falling. Maybe a couple of branches hitting my house though.

[winterfreak]

My idea of where most if not all the precip should be snow. to the left of the line.

 

snowline.jpg

Don't be a buzz kill Geos. Fifty miles north of imby. So close yet so far. Sure you feel the same way.

[gosaints]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US/contour/current/US.tpsl.gif

[Geos]

Don't be a buzz kill Geos. Fifty miles north of imby. So close yet so far. Sure you feel the same way.

 

I would just say that's the 80% of greater snow line. Hope you get some wrap around snow from the ULL.

 

Low seems to be parked in NW LA still.

 

[Jaycee]

EURO/NAM both give me over 20", while GFS and GEM only spew about 7-10". Will be an interesting day tomorrow.

[Geos]

Made it to freezing. 31.8° imby. Wind gusting to 30 mph

 

Lakefront temps down to 34

[OKwx2k4]

I'll be pulling for all of you up there to get some great snow. I'm going to be a little more selfish next round though. Lol

[Money]

Pivotal Weather has some sick graphics. 

 

HRRR running. Out to HR 8

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20151228/0600Z/f008/crefptypemw.png

[ToastedRavs]

I'll be pulling for all of you up there to get some great snow. I'm going to be a little more selfish next round though. Lol

 

 

Every right to be selfish next time...after what you all have been going through.  Stay safe!

[Geos]

Pivotal Weather has some sick graphics. 

 

HRRR running. Out to HR 8

 

 

 

Bottom of the graphic... I find it odd they labeled sleet, ice. That's what I'm assuming they're getting at.

 

Be back much earlier in the morning.

[Money]

Total actual snowfall through HR 15 on HRRR (Note, this is just the start of the system really in WI/IA/MN) at least:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20151228/0600Z/f015/acc10_1snowmw.png

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20151228/0600Z/f015/crefptypemw.png

[Money]

RAP:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20151228/06Z/f18/snodconus.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20151228/06Z/f18/crefptypeconus.png

[ToastedRavs]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=acc10snow&rh=2015122806&fh=27&r=mw&dpdt=

[Money]

6z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20151228/06Z/f33/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

That's GFS, GGEM, RGEM, EURO, NAM all with 6+ for here. 

[Grizzcoat]

[OKwx2k4]

Every right to be selfish next time...after what you all have been going through. Stay safe!

Thank you. Definitely will be as safe as possible

[Money]

7z HRRR valid thru 22z. This doesn't include sleet, just snow. 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20151228/0700Z/f015/acc10_1snowmw.png

 

 

Radar at 22z:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20151228/0600Z/f015/crefmw.png

[clintbeed1993]

The snow storm black hole continues for Nebraska.

[Grizzcoat]

Climate wise-- you see about one 8" event in your climate region ( Central NE)  per about 3-4 further East. Oddities happen,, but near C.NE is not the hot bed for snow events in any pattern compared to areas further E that are "wetter" on avg. Snowstorm black hole will continue until the Spring-- then with the changing of the guard to a LA nina-- AO going - and other variables-- you will see some impressive totals ,, likely reaching seasonal averages in just a few weeks.--- much like this system.

[WBadgersW]

MKX still calling for only 2-4"

[WildWisconsinWeather]

MKX still calling for only 2-4"

 

Local mets went with around an inch for Milwaukee area.  To me that's pretty low.  I say 3-4" of snow and mostly sleet otherwise.

[Money]

Hrrr showing 8-12 before it switches to sleet in Milwaukee and Madison

[bud2380]

I'm getting heavy sleet here after initial starting as snow.

[Hawkeye]

It's still snow here, but radar shows sleet moving in quickly.  Waterloo and points north and west are in a sweet spot for 8-12 inches of snow, but sleet should hold us down quite a bit.  

[Madtown]

Sleetfest! Mkx still going really low with qpf in their disco.

[bainbridgekid]

35 degrees with 28 degree DP and looks like mainly rain here in Evanston so far. Wind is cranking.

 

The low has become double barreled and the primary part of the low has moved back NW into extreme Eastern Oklahoma.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Snowing now and cars, roofs, and grass is white!

 

EDIT: Mixture of snow and sleet now. Still see some flakes, but mostly sleet.

[NEJeremy]

And as most of us said earlier...THAT'S why you don't rely on just one model run and throw everything out.  My oh my...some of those viewers went to bed and will be sad when they wake up.  And I feel worse for the businesses that relied on his forecast alone---if it does indeed bust.  I just hope that his channel or he, himself, were on air hinting at the possibility of a miss.

SMH. Again, what the hell are you talking about?! EVERY FORECASTER IN THIS AREA AND MOST OF THE MIDWEST WAS GOING WITH THE EURO. Go read all the discussions in the AFD's that were put out yesterday afternoon and evening and prior to that. Hell even our NWS put out an update at 930 saying they were keeping things the same and throwing out the 0Z NAM that pushed everything east. Since Jim is THE GUY that everyone goes to for their forecast, he should send out an apology. Apparently all the other TV stations that were also calling for 6-10+" over eastern Nebraska don't listen to their own guys, they go to Jim. I already mentioned our local NWS office, so I guess they must have called him too. Even the guys in Washington that put out the probability maps must have been talking to Jim because again all day yesterday they had a 80% of greater than 8" of snow guess where? Right over eastern Nebraska.

The average Joe Public already thinks that weather is some kind of exact science, so to say Jim and only Jim should have been saying all these "what if" situations is absurd. TV weatherman get public abuse no matter what they forecast because it is almost ALWAYS wrong for someone. For all those snow plow companies that are going to wake up surprised today, than maybe the should go somewhere else for their forecast like the NWS, or another TV station or the WPC website. Errr wait, I guess those people were wrong too. I guess they should come here to this forum then instead since I guess the information they get will always be right!