January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

BTW - for about the last 4 years the best forecasting method has been to pull the worst analogs that drive cold weenies crazy and use only those years.     That is no joke or trolling.   It has truly been the best method for an accurate forecast.    And it will probably work again for one more year.  As Dewey occasionally reminds us... persistence is an important factor.

 

The last two summers everything really pointed to warmth.   There was no way to think otherwise even if some called it trolling.   

 

And I guarantee that late this coming fall and winter that will change.   My forecast one year from now will be much more pessimistic.  

[crf450ish]

Barely got above freezing today in Pocatello. Was 14 when I showed up at work this morning. Supposed to be a brisk week next week with daytime highs hovering just below freezing.

 

I wonder what kind of weather this place experiences in February

[Deweydog]

Jim and I find it weirdly flattering how much effort goes into it sometimes.

Our climate?

 

I find it just does its thing no matter what brand of toothpaste I use or who's shirts I wear.

[Jesse]

Our climate?

 

I find it just does its thing no matter what brand of toothpaste I use or who's shirts I wear.

Some people can't get no satisfaction.

[Deweydog]

Some people can't get no satisfaction.

You do make it hard on yourself.

[Jesse]

You do make it hard on yourself.

Whatever gives you satisfaction.

[Deweydog]

Whatever gives you satisfaction.

Warm and cold works for me!

 

Try it! You might surprise yourself!

[Jesse]

Warm and cold works for me!

 

Try it! You might surprise yourself!

That means only half of your days would be nice.

[ShawniganLake]

I made similar posts in 2013, 2014, 2015 and people said my forecast was totally wrong.

 

I am still seeing all the signs pointing to another warm summer again this year. 2017 and probably 2018 will be cooler.

I was definitely on the warm summer bandwagon the last couple of years. Seemed like it was the most probable outcome. Not sure about this year though. As of now, I am thinking something close to seasonal temperature wise. I would agree on the warm spring though.

[Jesse]

I was definitely on the warm summer bandwagon the last couple of years. Seemed like it was the most probable outcome. Not sure about this year though. As of now, I am thinking something closer to seasonal temperature wise. I would agree on the warm spring though.

Yeah, warm spring is probably a given. After that it becomes a bit more of a crapshoot.

[ShawniganLake]

Temperature has already fallen through the 40's here. Bracing myself for the big chill.

[Deweydog]

That means only half of your days would be nice.

Half ain't bad. .300 gets you into Cooperstown.

 

And the shirts reference was David Bowie, not Mick Jagger.

 

RIP.

[Jesse]

Half ain't bad. .300 gets you into Cooperstown.

 

And the shirts reference was David Bowie, not Mick Jagger.

 

RIP.

Ah. Space Oddity. I was on the fence.

[TT-SEA]

I was definitely on the warm summer bandwagon the last couple of years. Seemed like it was the most probable outcome. Not sure about this year though. As of now, I am thinking something closer to seasonal temperature wise. I would agree on the warm spring though.

 

June is going to be wetter and cooler than normal.   July - September are likely going to torch... into October as well.

[ShawniganLake]

June is going to wetter and cooler than normal. July - September are likely going to torch... into October as well.

I like a warm summer, so I am okay with that. Hope it is a bit wetter than the last couple, parts of my lawn never came back with the fall rains. I am going to have to top dress and re seed this year.

[Phil]

June is going to be wetter and cooler than normal. July - September are likely going to torch... into October as well.

What's your reasoning for this prediction? I'm seeing a different outcome.

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully the 0z looks like the 18z Gfs for Sunday. It had 0.6" of precip falling with 925mb temps of -1 to -2C, pretty good chance for a snow day here if that verified.

[ShawniganLake]

What's your reasoning for this prediction? I'm seeing a different outcome.

What are you thinking.

[Deweydog]

Does anyone ever predict things to be about average?

[Jesse]

What are you thinking.

The opposite of what whoever he is addressing is thinking.

[TT-SEA]

What's your reasoning for this prediction? I'm seeing a different outcome.

 

 

You said that the last two years as well... I clearly remember you saying it was going to blowtorch out there last summer and be much cooler here and we went out and had the warmest summer ever here.

 

Combination this year of 1942, 1958, 1992, 1998... maybe a little 1987 and 2003.     

 

We might have some similarities to 1983 right now but that was a strange summer.   The PDO shot up to insane levels that summer.    That does not always mean warmth here.   Something strange was happening that year and to expect it to play out like that again is probably not a good basis for a long-term forecast.

[Jesse]

Does anyone ever predict things to be about average?

Well now we have your forecast. I was hoping to avoid spoilers until it was released on blu-Ray!

[ShawniganLake]

Does anyone ever predict things to be about average?

I just did above. Close to seasonal would be about average.

[TT-SEA]

For comparison... here are the SSTA maps from this week in 2014, 2015, and 2016.    Not supporting any forecast here... just showing the maps for reference.    Use them to support whatever you want.

 

1/30/14

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.30.2014.gif

 

1/29/15

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.29.2015.gif

 

Today...

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.1.28.2016.gif

[HighlandExperience]

Not the full post yet but here is a summary:

 

March - May will be quite warm and drier than average. Not dry of course... but drier than average.

 

June will be cooler and wetter than normal.

 

Then July - October will be warmer and drier than normal. September will be a blowtorch.

 

The summers of 2014 and 2015 will not be challenged for warmth. But it will probably be a top 10 warm spring - fall period.

2016 will be warmest year on record. People will long for cooler days.

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

I just did above. Close to seasonal would be about average.

Booooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnng.

[Deweydog]

Does Christie look like he's retaining water?

[ShawniganLake]

Booooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnng.

Depends how you get there, of course 

[TT-SEA]

Depends how you get there, of course 

 

 

That is true.  

[Deweydog]

Depends how you get there, of course

True, but a long range forecast is usually only as good as how many people you can draw in to look at it. EC just doesn't sell too well.

[High Desert Mat]

I'm not going to even try to give a prediction of what will happen overall months from now, let alone years. Not sure how many of you go to the winter weather conference at Omsi but I notice Mark doesn't put in a forecast foe the upcoming winter. I consider him to be much more informed and knowledgeable about meteorology and weather than any of us here, yet he still isn't putting one together. I assume its because he knows that analogs and the past probably isn't going to help him much. If any of you could foresee the future like you talk, (Tim), then wouldn't you be trillionaires and we wouldn't even matter to debate with? Who knows, maybe I'm reaching for an answer.

 

I just have one question, who am I?

"Jim, you're wrong, and no matter how cold it gets I'm going to throw some bs analog at you and say 'I told you so'. I'm the best and it never snows so there".

[High Desert Mat]

Temp 33.4 here right now. Hmmmm, with the 850's where they are it could maybe possibly accidentally snow here if there was precip. Possible snow this weekend but possibly not, not at this latitude and elevation.

[TT-SEA]

Matt was doubting my summer prediction even in early June last year.  

 

http://s22.postimg.org/r8hojvmi9/june1.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

Matt was doubting my summer prediction even in early June last year.

 

http://s22.postimg.org/r8hojvmi9/june1.jpg

You missed the summer being historically dry part though. #bust

 

This last summer was not a shock temp wise.

[TT-SEA]

You missed the summer being historically dry part though. #bust

 

This last summer was not a shock temp wise.

It turned wet in King County in late July. Followed by one of the wettest months of August ever.

[GHweatherChris]

It turned wet in King County in late July. Followed by one of the wettest months of August ever.

It was dry overall. The historic burn ban proved that.

[TT-SEA]

And here is a prediction from May 2, 2014.   Also knew I would be attacked for pulling up those analogs but I really thought they fit the mold in 2014.

 

 

 

 

 

http://s23.postimg.org/3obhgmtrv/may1.jpg

[TT-SEA]

It was dry overall. The historic burn ban proved that.

 

Very dry early on.   Not August by any means in the Seattle area and out here as well.   It was almost record setting wet.   

[GHweatherChris]

And here is a prediction from May 2, 2014. Also knew I would be attacked for pulling up those analogs but I really thought they fit.

 

http://s23.postimg.org/3obhgmtrv/may1.jpg

Why are you on the defense all of a sudden?