GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[gabel23]

If this goes southeast I'll probably lose my s**t

I would say your money, the Lincoln/Omaha corridor should be golden, even with a southeast shift. My area on south and west on the other hand would greatly be affected. I really don't know what to believe, last time we were in this situation the EURO and GFS were so consistent and the GFS won out. Hoping for the same results this time.....we are so due. Also, historically speaking, it seems our major snow storms always come after a pretty good warm up. Like what has been happening this week.....time will tell. One thing is certain, it seems like we have been tracking this thing for a flipping month!!! We are still 4 DAYS AWAY!!!!!! Crazy. 

[Money]

Just took a peak at all the 51 individual members of the 12z EPS run and I'd say about 90% of them never have the SLP past N IL. The majortiy cut up near STL, then hit a road block (HP near Lake Superior) and gets shoved east towards N OH (ish). Some really nice systems with a clear comma head shape to them.

Lot of good hits here?

[Tony]

Big differnece on the NAM compared to the other models in the Southwest. The trough on the NAM in California is positively tilted compared to the neutral state most of the other modeling has shown. This would probably eject the storm farther south from current projections and could have some big implications down the road.

 

Here is the Euro @96 for comparison

[Tom]

Some very nice hits in Wisco

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings NE 3:00 PM Forecast Discussion.  

 

The operational runs of the
GFS....Canadian...and ec also show a fair amount of spread at that
time. The one thing they all agree on is that the system will
close off. The difference in location by 12z next Tuesday ranges
from the GFS which has it near Hill City Kansas...to the ec which
is further east near Concordia...to the Canadian which is further
south...a little east of Wichita. Depending on which model
verifies...will dictate whether the northern or southern part of
our County Warning Area will be under a greater threat. Will be interesting to
see how models evolve the track of the system the next few days.
Both the ec and GFS were a little bit further north than previous
runs. The forecast dynamics with this system look impressive at
this time with plenty of large scale lift...moisture and cold air
in place. In addition to the possibility of heavy snow...the
region may have to deal with strong winds as a deep surface low
pressure to our south moves east northeast through the region. The
resulting pressure gradient across Nebraska could be over 20 mb so
winds at 30 miles per hour with higher gusts not out of the question. 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte NE forecast discussion 3 PM.

 

Confidence has increased somewhat that a winter storm could
affect at least the southeastern half of the forecast area. The 12z European model (ecmwf) now
making an adjustment further north yet faster than the 12z GFS by
about 12 hours by 00z Wednesday. The 12z GFS would favor giving the
southeastern forecast area the potential for significant snowfall
along with windy conditions and blowing snow. In fact northeast
winds forecast to become north and increase to 20 to 30 miles per hour then
northerly at 25 to 35 miles per hour on Tuesday. At this time...best chances
for snow near 50 percent southeast of an Ogallala through Oneill
line.

Given a strong negative tilt into Monday night...convection will
occur across the lower to middle miss valley Monday night but should
have a lesser affect than a neutral tilt system would. Thus moisture
transport into the region appears adequate...especially from the
GFS solution.

[hlcater]

WPC packed their bags and moved southeastward. 

[Snowlover76]

I would say your money, the Lincoln/Omaha corridor should be golden, even with a southeast shift. My area on south and west on the other hand would greatly be affected. I really don't know what to believe, last time we were in this situation the EURO and GFS were so consistent and the GFS won out. Hoping for the same results this time.....we are so due. Also, historically speaking, it seems our major snow storms always come after a pretty good warm up. Like what has been happening this week.....time will tell. One thing is certain, it seems like we have been tracking this thing for a flipping month!!! We are still 4 DAYS AWAY!!!!!! Crazy. 

I just need this storm.  My parents back on the east coast just got 30".  I need something to make me feel better. lol 

[Snowlover76]

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU JAN 28 2016

TO CO-OPT A PHRASE..."I`M GONNA HAVE TO SCIENCE THE [sNOW] OUT OF
THIS!"

MUCH ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A POTENT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WHILE MANY
FEATURES -- INCLUDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS -- WILL NOT BE WELL
RESOLVED FOR DAYS TO COME...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT EASTERN
NEB/WESTERN IA ARE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW AND WIND IN THAT TIME. WIND
IS PERHAPS THE GREATEST CERTAINTY...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
EJECTS ACROSS KS INTO MO ON TUES...PLACING EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING SNOW...THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE
MOISTURE- LADEN THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WOULD BRING THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SOMEWHERE IN AND/OR NEAR OUR AREA. STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK STATIC
STABILITY AND STATIC INSTABILITY) FOR A SHORT TIME...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN FURTHER. IN CURRENT MODEL PROGS...THE
SYSTEM HAS MANY CLASSIC SYNOPTIC FEATURES FAVORING A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED TROWAL POINTED INTO
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...UPSTREAM MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 4-8 G/KG
(DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT...AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT
WOULD DEFINE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. ONE LIMITING FEATURE
NOTED TODAY IS THAT THE LIFT IS NOT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FLAKE-SHATTERING
WINDS...THAT MAY HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS FROM MAX POTENTIAL. WITH
WINDS LIKE THIS...WE MIGHT BE MEASURING SNOWFALL SIDEWAYS ANYWAY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT VISIBILITIES AND THEIR
DURATION...IT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE FOR INTERMITTENT NEAR-WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED BLIZZARD CRITERIA SOMEWHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM.

REGARDING TIMING...IT IS LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE LIKELY WHETHER AMOUNTS ARE ON THE
LOW OR THE HIGH END OF CURRENT PROJECTIONS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE ONSET IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST NEB...TO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT
ELSEWHERE. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND LIKELY PEAKING ON TUESDAY
BEFORE PULLING AWAY AND DIMINISHING SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AFTER SNOWFALL ENDS AS GUSTY WINDS LINGER.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.
 

[Geos]

You do understand that people on this forum probably look at the DGEX and take it seriously 

 

Not putting any stock into. Just something else to look at while we're waiting for the next run.

[gosaints]

Not putting any stock into. Just something else to look at while we're waiting for the next run.

I know you arent. Others will

[hlcater]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f078/sfcconus.png

 

That is way stronger than what it had 12z. 

[Geos]

This system is stronger. 

 

 

Main low is further south - almost to LA now.

[Money]

This system is stronger.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f078/prateptypeconus.png

 

Main low is further south - almost to LA now.

LA? Lol geos is smoking something

[Geos]

LA? Lol geos is smoking something

 

Ok. Santa Barbara

 

[gosaints]

Gfs shiuld be weaker southeast

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f108/sfcconus.png

[Geos]

Further south for sure.

 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f114/sfcconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f120/sfcconus.png

[Money]

6+ for geos this run

 

Chicago gets a couple

 

Iowa 14-18

[Snowlover76]

well this blows 

[Geos]

You guys in Nebraska are safe.

 

[Money]

That's one spread the wealth type snow band

[Jaycee]

Wow jackpot. And I'm not excited about it

[winterfreak]

You guys in Nebraska are safe.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f126/acckucherasnowconus.png

Pretty much sums up our winter.

[Snowlover76]

Wow jackpot. And I'm not excited about it

its almost always a kiss of death. 

[jcwxguy]

well this blows

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160128/18Z/f138/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

Pretty much sums up our winter.

 

Riding the edge.

 

Going to be a nail bitter until the last minute I think for both of us.

[gosaints]

Riding the edge.

 

Going to be a nail bitter until the last minute I think for both of us.

My gut says you.get a decent storm at this time. Money for sure

[WBadgersW]

I don't get it, isn't Lincoln still getting a lot of snow on that run?

 

Things improved around here. Still shows a bit of rain, but im not worried about that yet.

[Snowlover76]

I don't get it, isn't Lincoln still getting a lot of snow?

 

Things improved around here. Still shows a bit of rain, but im not worried about that yet.

I hate being in the jackpot this far out.  Its a jinx IMO 

[NEJeremy]

well at least it's another run where we're "safe" here in Omaha. Only 4 more days to go

[WBadgersW]

I hate being in the jackpot this far out.  Its a jinx IMO 

 

100% agree lol. But you never know

[Money]

I hate being in the jackpot this far out. Its a jinx IMO

Dc was in the jackpot 6 days before system and they got 24

[Geos]

I don't get it, isn't Lincoln still getting a lot of snow on that run?

 

Things improved around here. Still shows a bit of rain, but im not worried about that yet.

 

It's very brief by you.

 

Instant weather maps is using a different algorithm. Pretty crazy amounts.

 

[Geos]

Hang on I'll overlay the snowfall map over a map so you can see exactly where it falls out in the Plains.

[gosaints]

I wish the.gfs wasnt the only model with such an.impressive snow swath

[Snowlover76]

Dc was in the jackpot 6 days before system and they got 24

when i was still living in the northeast, in Jan 2008 we were forecasted to get 14+

 

ended up with heavy rain.  Its burned me in the past and I get nervous whenever I'm in the jack. 

[Geos]

That's 16-18" on the edge of Lincoln.