GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[ToastedRavs]

Normally don't post GFS numbers....  but more than six tenths QPF in six hours bears posting the numbers.  Hope it pans out.  Reminds me of Dec 8 2009; we got more than 16" that storm

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.5    -5.5    1018      86      98    0.00     547     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -4.4    -5.9    1012      95      99    0.23     545     536    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -4.3    -6.6    1003      93      99    0.61     538     535    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.3   -10.6    1002      89      99    0.30     525     524    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -9.1   -12.6    1008      89     100    0.07     524     518    WED 12Z 03-FEB -14.8   -13.7    1018      88      57    0.01     530     516    WED 18Z 03-FEB -14.3   -15.5    1024      84      12    0.00     531     513    

[centralweather44]

Like I said the other day. Never good being in the bullseye this far out. After all, it is what it is. I'll be happy with 5-6". Be the biggest snow this year so far here

[bud2380]

the swath on the Canadian is not nearly as wide as the GFS either.  Although this is a good hit for me, I still hope it's a little too far south. 

[gosaints]

Very interesting evolution on the ggem looking at the slp and precip on tropical tidbits.

[bud2380]

GFS close up

 

http://i.imgur.com/FBkrg0b.png

[Money]

I mean

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160129/00Z/f120/sfcmw.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160129/00Z/f120/6hqpfmw.png

[Geos]

 

Normally don't post GFS numbers....  but more than six tenths QPF in six hours bears posting the numbers.  Hope it pans out.  Reminds me of Dec 8 2009; we got more than 16" that storm

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.5    -5.5    1018      86      98    0.00     547     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -4.4    -5.9    1012      95      99    0.23     545     536    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -4.3    -6.6    1003      93      99    0.61     538     535    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.3   -10.6    1002      89      99    0.30     525     524    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -9.1   -12.6    1008      89     100    0.07     524     518    WED 12Z 03-FEB -14.8   -13.7    1018      88      57    0.01     530     516    WED 18Z 03-FEB -14.3   -15.5    1024      84      12    0.00     531     513    

 

I remember that storm. Early season warmer lake waters really cut into totals here. Ended up at about 4", when about a foot was forecast.

[Geos]

I mean

 

<3

 

 

 

 

Nudge that freezing line south just a tad and it's all snow here.

 

CMC is pretty interesting to say the least.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I remember that storm. Early season warmer lake waters really cut into totals here. Ended up at about 4", when about a foot was forecast.

 

I didn't even get that much.  I think MKE county near the lake got an inch or two, but over 6" just inland in Waukesha.

[Money]

Looks like 16/20 ggem ensembles have a sub 990 low somewhere with many 980 lows

[gosaints]

The ggem and gfs are a world apart just on the first system

[Money]

HR 120:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012900_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_120.png

[Jaycee]

It's going to get ugly in here.  CMC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't really even know what to say about that one.

[Geos]

Interesting that the CMC does not have a strong wave on Sunday.

 

[Snowlover76]

 

It's going to get ugly in here.  CMC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't really even know what to say about that one.

 

yea its bad

[Money]

Individual systems:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012900_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_120.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012900_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_120.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012900_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_120.png

[gosaints]

HR 120:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012900_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_120.png

Wow look at the spread!!!!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think the snow maps must be off on the GFS.  Not only does the low pass through or just south of MKE, the black 0C line on Earl Barker's maps are north of here much of the time of greatest precip.  Hard to buy those amounts on the southern flank even if there is that much moisture.

[Jaycee]

GGEM ensembles are everywhere. I don't know. I have a feeling the EURO is going to be very ugly around here.

[Money]

Interesting that the CMC does not have a strong wave on Sunday.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160129/00Z/f066/pratetypeconus.png

 

 

UKMET same way:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GGEM ensembles are everywhere. I don't know. 

 

Almost all of them are south and east of the operational GFS.

[Money]

I think the snow maps must be off on the GFS.  Not only does the low pass through or just south of MKE, the black 0C line on Earl Barker's maps are north of here much of the time of greatest precip.  Hard to buy those amounts on the southern flank even if there is that much moisture.

 

Low passes way south of Milwaukee 

[CentralNebWeather]

More waiting. Time for bed. Dreaming of northwest trends and blizzard conditions

[bud2380]

yeah the GGEM ensembles are all over the place.  That wouldn't give me much confidence. 

[Money]

ukie: 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

Doesn't even have a high pressure anywhere lol 

[NEJeremy]

Meh, it's one run of the Canadian model. I still think the euro will be fine tonight.

[Jaycee]

Almost all of them are south and east of the operational GFS.

 

True, but they are also hundreds of miles apart even, whereas the spread on the GFS is much less. I'll stick with the GFS, despite it shifting, it's been showing a snowband within 100 miles around here for over a hundred hours at this point. It'd be a huge slap in the face if the DGEX was right all along.

[Money]

By this time tomorrow night we'll be within 100 hours or so, and by 12z Saturday we will be getting into NAM range lol 

[Tom]

Almost all of them are south and east of the operational GFS.

GGEM ensembles came in a tad SE of 12z runs..,UKIE came in SE also..it would put us in a great spot.  BTW, the UKIE track is identical placement where the 12z EPS mean had the Low.

[gosaints]

ukie:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

Doesn't even have a high pressure anywhere lol

And there is the just scoot on bye solution.. Would imagine that would be pretty yawn for everyone

[clintbeed1993]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5QGkOGZubQ

[WildWisconsinWeather]

True, but they are also hundreds of miles apart even, whereas the spread on the GFS is much less. I'll stick with the GFS, despite it shifting, it's been showing a snowband within 100 miles around here for over a hundred hours at this point. It'd be a huge slap in the face if the DGEX was right all along.

 

True, I think Lincoln will do pretty well, Omaha may be a different story depending on the orientation of the storm.

[Tom]

By this time tomorrow night we'll be within 100 hours or so, and by 12z Saturday we will be getting into NAM range lol 

Tracking this storm from 10+ days out has been something...I don't recall tracking one like this for so long...its pretty remarkable that there hasn't been 1 fluke run with no storm on all the models.

[Snowlover76]

True, but they are also hundreds of miles apart even, whereas the spread on the GFS is much less. I'll stick with the GFS, despite it shifting, it's been showing a snowband within 100 miles around here for over a hundred hours at this point. It'd be a huge slap in the face if the DGEX was right all along.

Its usually a bad sign if the DGEX is too far south since it is usually amped and NW. 

[gosaints]

GGEM ensembles came in a tad SE of 12z runs..,UKIE came in SE also..it would put us in a great spot. BTW, the UKIE track is identical placement where the 12z EPS mean had the Low.

I understand you like the overall ukie track for your back yard but it is probably pretty lame overall.

[Money]

GGEM ensembles came in a tad SE of 12z runs..,UKIE came in SE also..it would put us in a great spot.  BTW, the UKIE track is identical placement where the 12z EPS mean had the Low.

 

Ukie hasn't even been running last two days so meh 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I understand you like the overall ukie track for your back yard but it is probably pretty lame overall.

 

Yeah, but I think someone would still see warning criteria snows.  Double digits would probably be off the table with that solution.

[Money]

GGEM:

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160129/00Z/f126/sfcmw.png

[gosaints]

Ukie hasn't even been running last two days so meh

The ukie is a winter weather advisory type solution or low end warning. It flies a million miles an hour

[Money]

The ukie is a winter weather advisory type solution or low end warning. It flies a million miles an hour

 

Doesn't have a high anywhere near the GL at all either. An odd solution.