GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[CentralNebWeather]

No I don't have students at this moment if anyone was wondering if I was wasting tax payer money, just eating my lunch at my computer and reading weatherforums.  I love it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Good idea gosaints.  I showed another history teacher yesterday the instantweathermaps site so he could see what I look at daily.  He was very interested then and we talked for about 15 minutes this morning about weather.  I

[Geos]

cmc

 

Too far southeast I think. System is dynamic enough to have a track through at least Indy.

[jcwxguy]

Lots of ensemble members way way way east.....

can we take a look to see how bad it is for eastern nebraska

[WildWisconsinWeather]

CMC has a much stronger lead wave.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

Will use this thread for this system as well. I think once we get to tomorrow night will start a Part II.

 

I'll take an inch or so for tomorrow's wave and call it a day like the GEM seems to indicate.  Of course, with these couple of torchy days coming up, the remaining snow/sleet cover will be taking a beating.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Too far southeast I think. System is dynamic enough to have a track through at least Indy.

 

It's such a weird track, looking at 120, the low seems to be toward NW Indiana after the last frame showed it just south/east of there.  Constantly flipping low locations are not very realistic.

[Geos]

It's such a weird track, looking at 120, the low seems to be toward NW Indiana after the last frame showed it just south/east of there.  Constantly flipping low locations are not very realistic.

 

I just realized it zig zags like the EURO. I saw it heading up the Ohio River Valley then transfers to around Kokomo! That road block high pressure to the north is playing with these models.

 

---

 

GEFS mean definitely went east, more than anything.

 

 

 

[Tony]

It's such a weird track, looking at 120, the low seems to be toward NW Indiana after the last frame showed it just south/east of there.  Constantly flipping low locations are not very realistic.

To be fair most of the other models have been jumping the low like a bouncing ball as well.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I just realized it zig zags like the EURO. I saw it heading up the Ohio River Valley then transfers to around Kokomo! That road block high pressure to the north is playing with these models.

 

---

 

GEFS mean definitely went east, more than anything.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

 

Honestly a lot of those are starting to look like a classic Michigan cutter, which is great for Milwaukee's sake.  Earlier this week it looked like the storm would peak in intensity just west of here, but the latest trends throw a wrench into that idea.

[Snowlover76]

My euro prediction is that it goes SE

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160129/12Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[gosaints]

My euro prediction is that it goes SE

Safest prediction

[Snowlover76]

Safest prediction

It will end up being right too. When the ensembles are SE, that means the storm will go SE.

[gosaints]

It will end up being right too. When the ensembles are SE, that means the storm will go SE.

Could be right for sure safest bet right now but have seen this game enough times to know anything is on the table

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160129/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[gosaints]

So far EURO a bit stronger and a bit slower than the GFS out west

[Geos]

Slower low, will allow the baroclinic zone settle further south.

[winterfreak]

Doesn't look like it's going south.

[Snowlover76]

So far EURO a bit stronger and a bit slower than the GFS out west

Stronger is better.

 

 

I think. Lol

[gosaints]

Stronger is better.

 

 

I think. Lol

We will see might not be stronger in the end just because it is at 72

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160129/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[gosaints]

Nebraska at least will like 96

[bud2380]

low in EC KS at 96 hours. 850s below 0 for all of iowa. 

[gosaints]

Gonna bowling ball from there I am guessing

[ToastedRavs]

On phone, but from memory, seems further West and slower, correct?

[gosaints]

On phone, but from memory, seems further West and slower, correct?

Will be good run for you i think.  

[Snowlover76]

The low looks like it's in a good placement for here.

[winterfreak]

Yep awful down here. Good for NE for sure.

[gosaints]

The low looks like it's in a good placement for here.

Yes should be good for you.  Very similar placement to GFS

[bud2380]

Perfect run for Nebraska

[Geos]

A definite track won't be nailed down until we know how strong the Sunday system is. EURO isn't impressed with it, but it has been late to the party before.

[gosaints]

Perfect run for Nebraska

and iowa

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160129/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

[Madtown]

How bout Wisconsin?

[gosaints]

How bout Wisconsin?

Depends what the low does between 96 and 120.  But would think Madtown does solid

[NEJeremy]

My euro prediction is that it goes SE

you were saying....

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            12Z JAN29

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.9    -2.4    1014      60      98    0.00     548     537    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.5    -4.1    1012      80     100    0.03     546     536    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.3    -4.9    1011      91     100    0.11     545     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.3    -6.3    1006      92      99    0.33     537     532    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.6    -7.5    1007      90      99    0.57     532     527    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.0    -9.9    1012      83      99    0.14     533     523    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.7    -9.5    1018      76      97    0.03     535     521    

WED 12Z 03-FEB -11.8    -9.6    1023      73      47    0.00     537     519    
 
 
 

 

[gosaints]

you were saying....

Well it did go southeast and the end but the closing off early helps you guys alot.  I bet you guys get the highest totals out of 

[Geos]

How bout Wisconsin?

 

Seeing this map, tells me most it not all of WI would miss the warm tongue. Unless there is zig zagging.

 

[jcwxguy]

.