GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Money]

Ensembles are supposed to be SE of the op at this range

[Tom]

Ensembles are supposed to be SE of the op at this range

Good...hope the ensemble support continues...your in a good spot so I know your not to worried. 

[Money]

Nam 7 mb weaker compared to 18z with the northern wave

[hlcater]

Nam 7 mb weaker compared to 18z with the northern wave

how strong was it to begin with? Just to get a perspective.

[WBadgersW]

Sunday storm barely has any snow on the NAM

[Money]

how strong was it to begin with? Just to get a perspective.

18z got it down to 983. 0z was around 992

[Tom]

00z NAM slower than the 12z/18z GFS runs...here's the snow shield by 12z/2nd comparison...

[Tom]

If models trend slower tonight, might be a better thing out this way towards the Lower Lakes.  HP coming down out of Canada has more time to seep down into the CONUS.

[Tom]

It is the 00z NAM at the end of its run, however, it looks like the 12z GGEM same time stamp by HR 84...

 

12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012912/gem_asnow_us_16.png

 

00z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016013000/namconus_asnow_us_29.png

 

 

GFS is farther north with the band and also has a weaker HP.  These are the details that I hope get ironed out by late in the weekend.

[Maxim]

final call 1.5" of slop. congrats NE and others.

[Geos]

You can see those height falls in central OK. Low would go that direction if it went to 90 hours.

 

[Tom]

You can see those height falls in central OK. Low would go that direction if it went to 90 hours.

 

crefptypeconus-2.png

The only problem I have, it is HR 84 on the NAM...let's see if the 00z runs on the other models show anything similar.

[Tornadobrah89]

The Canadian is showing the snow way south. Could it be possible this thing goes much further south? I think it's much easier for them to forecast the severe side of this storm but who knows where the snow is going to set up? Or how far south the snow band will go.

[Geos]

It is the 00z NAM at the end of its run, however, it looks like the 12z GGEM same time stamp by HR 84...

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

00z NAM...

 

 

 

GFS is farther north with the band and also has a weaker HP.  These are the details that I hope get ironed out by late in the weekend.

 

That's a close correlation. A slower system will mean bigger totals, but that may shift the track even further south.

[Geos]

COOP snowfall averages using the analogs.

 

[Money]

The same nam that was 7 mb weaker with the northern stream and caved to the other models

[Maxim]

The Canadian is showing the snow way south. Could it be possible this thing goes much further south? I think it's much easier for them to forecast the severe side of this storm but who knows where the snow is going to set up? Or how far south the snow band will go.

Nah, I don't see much room for a SE shift at this point. The 12z GEM didn't even make sense either.

[gosaints]

Just checked back in. So much for wave one

[Geos]

First system going further south. Just a tad weaker.

 

[Money]

First system going further south. Just a tad weaker.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160130/00Z/f033/prateptypeconus.png

Way weaker by 48

[Geos]

Way weaker by 48

 

GFS wasn't strong with it on the 18z run either. Just a few nuisance showers and clouds on Sunday by the looks of it.

[Money]

2nd storm down to 995 in northern Arizona at 57

[gosaints]

I see geos and money r having a great evening together

[Money]

I see geos and money r having a great evening together

What up

[Tornadobrah89]

Nah, I don't see much room for a SE shift at this point. The 12z GEM didn't even make sense either.

I don't think the last mw storm was supposed to go south either or have that much cold air. I'm surprised anyone is putting faith in these models until we are inside 24 hours honestly

[gosaints]

What up

Geos tryin to send this thing LAF I see

[Geos]

Geos tryin to send this thing LAF I see

 

Or at least Rensselaer.

 

[Money]

Geos tryin to send this thing LAF I see

Him and Tom both

[Money]

Gfs looking good and consistent

[Geos]

Snow streaking out along the NE/KS border.

 

[bud2380]

Gfs north and warm. Big shift on the 850s.

[gosaints]

Gfs looking good and consistent

Should be nice run

[ToastedRavs]

Seems to be slowing down a hair, which is fine by me. Not only for snow totals but for the caucus too

[winterfreak]

Another bad run. Can already see where the rain snow line is.

[Tom]

00z GFS cutting NW...that's quite the shift...

[Money]

Should be nice run

Nice run for you might be a bit too warm here tho

[Geos]

That's really far north.

[Tom]

SC WI/ IA shafted this run.....

[Snowlover76]

If this keeps going north I might rain.

[gosaints]

Nice run for you might be a bit too warm here tho

Ya probably is probably over doing it but who knows. The jump on 18z ensembles was pretty dramatic