Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 That is the GFSx for PDX. Just another tool in our forecasting arsenal! It is ridiculously inaccurate considering what the GFS is actually showing. You had to know this before posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I remember Andrew posting a similar chart just days before the arctic event in early December. I think it showed PDX's highs bottoming out in the mid-upper 30s and their lows in the mid-20s. We all know how well that verified... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone viewing this site on a Nintendo Wii? 2006 called, it wants its question back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's just Andrew posting a chart or graph. I don't think he has some evil intent to ruin Winter for us low landers below 1500' LOL He isn't making a forecast or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The spaghetti is amazing around day 6 and 7. Looking more and more likely we will get snow out of this before it's over. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its not like I made this chart up. lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS guidance... Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 WOW00z GEM 850mb temp loophttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=enOfficially the coldest I've ever seen!-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts! HR 120http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hoping the 00Z was once again warmer than the ensemble mean. Looks like I got my wish. The op warmer than just about any ensemble for next week. Ensemble mean was a good 3-4c colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's just Andrew posting a chart or graph. I don't think he has some evil intent to ruin Winter for us low landers below 1500' LOL He isn't making a forecast or anything. Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 ALERT ALERT ALERT00z GFS Ensembles! Coldest yet. Coldest mean temp yet! nearly -15c and a lot of members -15c or COLDER Portlandhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Holy sheeeit! The ensemble mean shows 850s bottoming at -16 for Seattle. Wow! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 SeattleMean temp-16c HOLY BALLShttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 WOW00z GEM 850mb temp loophttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=enOfficially the coldest I've ever seen!-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts! HR 120http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gifI think there is potential for this thing to be huge. So much cold air to tap into. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 WOW00z GEM 850mb temp loophttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=enOfficially the coldest I've ever seen!-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts! HR 120http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif http://www.memegene.net/media/created/e99794.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Vancouver, BCCold much?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow. Op was cold and it's still several degrees warmer than the ensemble mean . . . http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The ensembles are insane. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output. The GFS MOS is quite reliable... if the 00Z operational GFS verified perfectly then it would be really close. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like I got my wish. The op warmer than just about any ensemble for next week. Ensemble mean was a good 3-4c colder. The coldest weather is in the period where the GFS has a warm bias. It's almost always too warm for events at around day 5. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output.It has been shown to be wildly inaccurate in the past. I just don't get the point of posting it. What kind of reaction were you expecting? You had to have known people would respond negatively. I don't buy the innocent act. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The coldest weather is in the period where the GFS has a warm bias. It's almost always too warm for events at around day 5.Yup. I actually like the change they made to the GFS a few years back. It's nice seeing events get colder as they get closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Canadian shows a good old fashioned snowstorm about a day later than the GFS. The low makes landfall further south and the cold hangs around about a day longer. Major event if it verifies. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://www.vibevixen.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/VIBE-Vixen-Cold-Weather-Meme-71.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked.I can feel this one. I doubt we sneak out of this one without a widespread event. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z EURO HR 96 850mb around -12c PDX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another interesting note is many CFS runs are showing another major cold wave in early March. I probably wouldn't mention it yet except quite a few eastern mets have been talking about the NW getting smacked in March. It would kind of fit actually. We got hit in early Dec, a close call in early Jan, now a major cold wave all but certain for early Feb. The LRC seems to be at work this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is this site running slow for anyone else????Yes, when I click post it takes a minute and even then sometimes I have to click it again. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 HR 120 looking very similar to the GEM. Let's see if it ultimately ends up near as cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This will probably go down as one of the top 3 February cold snaps at least since 1940. That is pretty D**n significant. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like after the snow event next weekend there's a brief moderation before going cold again at day 13-16. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This topic is HOT tonight. When are we moving to the February discussion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like after the snow event next weekend there's a brief moderation before going cold again at day 13-16. http://i60.tinypic.com/16kb6de.jpgThat would be awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Good lord that is some serious moisture. Need that 984 low to track further south by about 200 miles.With this track the hood canal area would get buried. And a lot of other areas. Reminds me of feb 1995 when hood canal got 3 ft. Think it was 1995. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 PDX's cold records for the Feb 6-10 period are pretty lame. Record mins are in the low-mid 20s and record min/maxes are in the upper 30s. We could be breaking some of those by ten or more degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Whooa! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 HR 120 looking very similar to the GEM. Let's see if it ultimately ends up near as cold.That's only five days out. With the operational Euro/GEM and GFS ensembles all in lockstep at this point I can't imagine things varying much. Maybe the token 1-2 degrees of warming by verification time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Holy crapping cowsHR 144http://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gifFa fa fa feel the bass bass bass... Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Vancouver, BCCold much?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.pngBeautiful Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 With this track the hood canal area would get buried. And a lot of other areas. Reminds me of feb 1995 when hood canal got 3 ft. Think it was 1995. This is WAY better than that. Way colder, way more potential. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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