January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

That is the GFSx for PDX. 

 

Just another tool in our forecasting arsenal!

 

It is ridiculously inaccurate considering what the GFS is actually showing. You had to know this before posting.

[Jesse]

I remember Andrew posting a similar chart just days before the arctic event in early December. I think it showed PDX's highs bottoming out in the mid-upper 30s and their lows in the mid-20s. We all know how well that verified...

[Jesse]

Anyone viewing this site on a Nintendo Wii?

 

2006 called, it wants its question back.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's just Andrew posting a chart or graph. I don't think he has some evil intent to ruin Winter for us low landers below 1500' LOL He isn't making a forecast or anything.

[snow_wizard]

The spaghetti is amazing around day 6 and 7.  Looking more and more likely we will get snow out of this before it's over.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its not like I made this chart up. lol

[snow_wizard]

GFS guidance...

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW

00z GEM 850mb temp loop

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en

Officially the coldest I've ever seen!

-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts!

 

HR 120

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif

[Jesse]

Hoping the 00Z was once again warmer than the ensemble mean.

Looks like I got my wish. The op warmer than just about any ensemble for next week. Ensemble mean was a good 3-4c colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's just Andrew posting a chart or graph. I don't think he has some evil intent to ruin Winter for us low landers below 1500' LOL He isn't making a forecast or anything.

 

Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output.

[Gradient Keeper]

ALERT ALERT ALERT

00z GFS Ensembles! Coldest yet. Coldest mean temp yet! nearly -15c and a lot of members -15c or COLDER

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

Holy sheeeit! The ensemble mean shows 850s bottoming at -16 for Seattle. Wow!

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle

Mean temp-16c HOLY BALLS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

WOW

00z GEM 850mb temp loop

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en

Officially the coldest I've ever seen!

-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts!

 

HR 120

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif

I think there is potential for this thing to be huge. So much cold air to tap into.

[Snow]

WOW

00z GEM 850mb temp loop

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en

Officially the coldest I've ever seen!

-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts!

 

HR 120

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif

 

http://www.memegene.net/media/created/e99794.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Vancouver, BC

Cold much?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[bainbridgekid]

Wow.

 

Op was cold and it's still several degrees warmer than the ensemble mean . . .

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are insane.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output.

 

 

The GFS MOS is quite reliable... if the 00Z operational GFS verified perfectly then it would be really close.    

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I got my wish. The op warmer than just about any ensemble for next week. Ensemble mean was a good 3-4c colder.

The coldest weather is in the period where the GFS has a warm bias. It's almost always too warm for events at around day 5.

[Jesse]

Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output.

It has been shown to be wildly inaccurate in the past. I just don't get the point of posting it. What kind of reaction were you expecting?

 

You had to have known people would respond negatively. I don't buy the innocent act.

[Jesse]

The coldest weather is in the period where the GFS has a warm bias. It's almost always too warm for events at around day 5.

Yup. I actually like the change they made to the GFS a few years back. It's nice seeing events get colder as they get closer.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian shows a good old fashioned snowstorm about a day later than the GFS. The low makes landfall further south and the cold hangs around about a day longer. Major event if it verifies.

[Snow]

http://www.vibevixen.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/VIBE-Vixen-Cold-Weather-Meme-71.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked.

I can feel this one. I doubt we sneak out of this one without a widespread event.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO HR 96 850mb around -12c PDX

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting note is many CFS runs are showing another major cold wave in early March. I probably wouldn't mention it yet except quite a few eastern mets have been talking about the NW getting smacked in March. It would kind of fit actually. We got hit in early Dec, a close call in early Jan, now a major cold wave all but certain for early Feb. The LRC seems to be at work this winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is this site running slow for anyone else????

Yes, when I click post it takes a minute and even then sometimes I have to click it again.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 looking very similar to the GEM. Let's see if it ultimately ends up near as cold.

[snow_wizard]

This will probably go down as one of the top 3 February cold snaps at least since 1940. That is pretty D**n significant.

[westiztehbest]

Looks like after the snow event next weekend there's a brief moderation before going cold again at day 13-16.

 

[van city]

This topic is HOT tonight.

 

When are we moving to the February discussion?

[van city]

Looks like after the snow event next weekend there's a brief moderation before going cold again at day 13-16.

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/16kb6de.jpg

That would be awesome.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good lord that is some serious moisture. Need that 984 low to track further south by about 200 miles.

With this track the hood canal area would get buried. And a lot of other areas. Reminds me of feb 1995 when hood canal got 3 ft. Think it was 1995.

[Jesse]

PDX's cold records for the Feb 6-10 period are pretty lame. Record mins are in the low-mid 20s and record min/maxes are in the upper 30s. We could be breaking some of those by ten or more degrees.

[Guest Winterdog]

Whooa!

 

 

[Jesse]

HR 120 looking very similar to the GEM. Let's see if it ultimately ends up near as cold.

That's only five days out. With the operational Euro/GEM and GFS ensembles all in lockstep at this point I can't imagine things varying much. Maybe the token 1-2 degrees of warming by verification time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Holy crapping cows

HR 144

http://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

Fa fa fa feel the bass bass bass...

[Weather101]

Vancouver, BC

Cold much?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Beautiful

[snow_wizard]

With this track the hood canal area would get buried. And a lot of other areas. Reminds me of feb 1995 when hood canal got 3 ft. Think it was 1995.

This is WAY better than that. Way colder, way more potential.