January 2014 in the PNW

[Snowman Josh]

We all know that placement of a low this far out means nothing. Could be anywhere.

[Snow]

It's amazing how things can change and things still might change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the arctic air next week the 00z is definitely colder than the 18z. 

[Snow]

You're talking about the potential storm next weekend?

 

Yeah big/huge snowstorm for Vancouver and nice snowstorm for Seattle. Maybe Portland also??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_189_1000_500_thick.gif

[snow_wizard]

Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like 850s bottom out around -14C at PDX on this run.

[Snowman Josh]

Holy sh*t though!!! The moisture that gets entrained for a good 24 hours is epic, way before winds shift. I'm starting to really feel late Friday/Saturday.

 

 

If..........it verifies.

[snow_wizard]

BTW the Canadian shows thicknesses dropping to 508 or a little lower over the Puget Sound region in the 5 to 6 day time frame. It actually has a vortex cutting off and sitting over WA and OR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the Canadian shows thicknesses dropping to 508 or a little lower over the Puget Sound region in the 5 to 6 day time frame. It actually has a vortex cutting off and sitting over WA and OR.

 

Sounds nifty!

[Snowman Josh]

If..it verifies, we would be seeing over an inch per hour rates...easily.

[TT-SEA]

Is this site running slow for anyone else????

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself.

[Snowman Josh]

Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked.

Dude, that is 12-18 somewhere.

[snow_wizard]

Is this site running slow for anyone else????

Not me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its sad that Flatiron left.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself.

 

That is some insane cold.

[Snowman Josh]

Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself.

 

Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north.

 

Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monthly minimums so far this cold season...

 

November: 17

December: 2

January:     20

February: ???

[snow_wizard]

Dude, that is 12-18 somewhere.

Pretty rare for the models to show that kind of precip with such wicked easterly gradients. Could be some Arctic / marine air interaction going on there. Could be huge.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z through HR 168 colder than 18z, but kind of a similar 500mb pattern with not digging the trough as far west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north.

 

Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing.

 

He's just talking about how much cold air is in NW Canada.

[snow_wizard]

Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north.

 

Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing.

Just look like the trough could swing in again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty rare for the models to show that kind of precip with such wicked easterly gradients. Could be some Arctic / marine air interaction going on there. Could be huge.

 

The 12z was still a much better overall run imo.

[Snowman Josh]

Good lord that is some serious moisture. Need that 984 low to track further south by about 200 miles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just look like the trough could swing in again.

 

I'm dying for some cold onshore flow!

[snow_wizard]

He's just talking about how much cold air is in NW Canada.

 

I was also referring to the 500mb trough possibly swinging in again.

[TT-SEA]

Its sad that Flatiron left.

 

 

I just sent him a message on facebook now.

[Snowman Josh]

Just look like the trough could swing in again.

 

Ya, guess it is possible with that double barrel low. I love to see the triple point much further south though. I agree though that it is very possible the trough could reassert itself. Especially with this winter's lack of prolonged zonal flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Oregon makes up some of that rain deficit in February...

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself.

December 21st/22nd 2008 again, I say yes PLEASE!!!

 

Granted there was no really reload after the 21st storm, but I had snow on the ground for almost 4 weeks out here after that.

[Snow]

Portland north is going to get CRUSHED!

[snow_wizard]

I'm guessing the 7 to 12 day period will be all over the place the next few days. There is still a chance of an epic period in there. At least this run has a huge snowstorm before the cold is done.

[GHweatherChris]

This blast has some serious potential written all over it.

[Snowman Josh]

198 through hr 300 is some serious precipitation and some serious mountain snows. Probably a good 5-6 days of heavy mountain snow above 2-3000 ft. Of course that is la la land.

 

Probably best not to look that far ahead .

[TT-SEA]

December 21st/22nd 2008 again, I say yes PLEASE!!!

 

Granted there was no really reload after the 21st storm, but I had snow on the ground for almost 4 weeks out here after that.

 

 

About the same on the 00Z GFS run.

 

There is no reload.   

 

Becomes very wet and windy... all rain for the lowlands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm guessing the 7 to 12 day period will be all over the place the next few days. There is still a chance of an epic period in there. At least this run has a huge snowstorm before the cold is done.

 

The 12z had a decent snow event for NW Oregon...That overrunning sweet spot will move around a bit.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM HR 120

better 500mb pattern and colder than GFS. 510 thickness PDX

http://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still a solid modified arctic blast next week.

[TT-SEA]

Portland north is going to get CRUSHED!

 

 

So its guaranteed to happen now????    

 

Should say they would get crushed if that run somehow came close to verifying.

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy crapping cows

HR 144

http://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif