January 2014 in the PNW

[Prairiedog]

Interesting article on the historical droughts in California.  There were some crazy long droughts that lasted decades.  Now with so much agricultural dependance on California, IF history were to repeat itself with a much longer drought, I'm seeing tomatoes at $10/lb and forget our winter fruit.  Economic results would be terrible.  Shaping up to be the driest 2012-13 in over 400 years!  Could help Oregon wine producers as Cali would have trouble keeping up with the demand.  

Now back to the cold.  

 

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24993601/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more

[Deweydog]

Well the 12z models all agree on the undercutting theme from the last few days. Euro at 192-216 would be a nice and quick snow dump. 

 

That's my point.  I think there's a better than decent change we'll see things trend away from a quick transition.  

 

1993 is a pretty decent analog, though.  Kind of the same rudderless pattern leading up to the initial event, although it was a far more traditional block.  This one is just goofy.  

[50shadesofvan]

Our favourite model (the NAM obviously) has 1000-500mb thickness down to 516 for Vancouver BC by Monday evening. Flurries on the coast possible Sunday/Monday

 

EDIT: If some cities get even an inch of snow cover before the brunt of the 'cold crisis' this very well could be a colder, more sustained event for several cities when compared to December's memorable event.

Time to start blogging. 

 

ay

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our favourite model (the NAM obviously) has 1000-500mb thickness down to 516 for Vancouver BC by Monday evening. Flurries on the coast possible Sunday/Monday

 

EDIT: If some cities get even an inch of snow cover before the brunt of the 'cold crisis' this very well could be a colder, more sustained event for several cities when compared to December's memorable event.

Time to start blogging. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gifay

 

I think I have a chance of flurries Monday morning!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Our favourite model (the NAM obviously) has 1000-500mb thickness down to 516 for Vancouver BC by Monday evening. Flurries on the coast possible Sunday/Monday

 

EDIT: If some cities get even an inch of snow cover before the brunt of the 'cold crisis' this very well could be a colder, more sustained event for several cities when compared to December's memorable event.

Time to start blogging. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gifay

 

If we could get a nice little low to spin up off Vancouver island and track south east down the coast then we could get a little action here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think I have a chance of flurries Monday morning!

OMG! Flurries!!!  <_ lol... we are talking about some intense longer duration cold and will end up with flurries think should aim a little higher. or hmmm maybe not>

[BLI snowman]

That's my point.  I think there's a better than decent change we'll see things trend away from a quick transition.  

 

1993 is a pretty decent analog, though.  Kind of the same rudderless pattern leading up to the initial event, although it was a far more traditional block.  This one is just goofy.  

 

Because the models agree on it right now? I don't know, sometimes you have to kind of take the models at face value. 

 

1993 was a pretty rare and prolonged blocking pattern. People forget that we had a 2nd big arctic airmass crash into the eastern side of the region a few days after the 2/19 event. Given the rather quick hitting tendencies of February blocks, I don't think that's in the cards this time around. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Because the models agree on it right now? I don't know, sometimes you have to kind of take the models at face value. 

 

1993 was a pretty rare and prolonged blocking pattern. People forget that we had a 2nd big arctic airmass crash into the eastern side of the region a few days after the 2/19 event. Given the rather quick hitting tendencies of February blocks, I don't think that's in the cards this time around. 

 

I wish Flatiron were here to minimize the significance of February 1993.

[Deweydog]

Because the models agree on it right now? I don't know, sometimes you have to kind of take the models at face value. 

 

1993 was a pretty rare and prolonged blocking pattern. People forget that we had a 2nd big arctic airmass crash into the eastern side of the region a few days after the 2/19 event. Given the rather quick hitting tendencies of February blocks, I don't think that's in the cards this time around. 

 

No, because of the consistent tendency this winter, and the last few for that matter, has been to diminish the strength and impact of Pacific influence as things draw near. 

 

Good thing is, we'll be watching them like hawks.  Go Hawks!!!

[Deweydog]

I wish Flatiron were here to minimize the significance of February 1993.

 

Not 2006-2014?  Not Arctic.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not 2006-2014?  Not Arctic.  

 

Why have arctic outbreaks become so common!

[Deweydog]

Conditions in downtown Seattle for the parade on Wednesday are going to be downright chilly. 

[Weather101]

Love the models! Get the cold air here first then worry about the rest later!

[BLI snowman]

No, because of the consistent tendency this winter, and the last few for that matter, has been to diminish the strength and impact of Pacific influence as things draw near. 

 

Good thing is, we'll be watching them like hawks.  Go Hawks!!!

 

Definitely true of this winter, but February can often throw a wrinkle in the December./January trends!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Conditions in downtown Seattle for the parade on Wednesday are going to be downright chilly. 

Yeah and plows will be out to clear the way after the flurry storm. Or is that a flake storm?  Hmmmmm     How many flakes do you need to make a flurry? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Deweydog]

Definitely true of this winter, but February can often throw a wrinkle in the December./January trends!

 

Time will tell!

[Deweydog]

Yeah and plows will be out to clear the way after the flurry storm. Or is that a flake storm?  Hmmmmm     How many flakes do you need to make a flurry? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

We get it.  Models look dry.  

[Snow]

18z GFS is slower with the cold air through hour 120.

[Snow]

But it might be better, out to hour 138, a system trying to organize itself dropping down the Canadian coastline.

[Phil]

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

 

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

 

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

 

The result of the said hemispheric shear regime has been persistent NPAC height rises. While the tropical forcings have been able to knock the ridging/wave breaking around, the general theme of rising heights somewhere around the NPAC continued given the momentum above the ferrel cell rifts.

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

[catnip]

But it might be better, out to hour 138, a system trying to organize itself dropping down the Canadian coastline

Ya, interesting. Come on system, you can do it!

[catnip]

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z isn't digging the trough nearly as far west.. minor details = huge implications... It's out to HR 144. Still chilly. Unsure how the rest of the run goes. Be back in a few off to do stuff.

[Deweydog]

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

 

I counted 8.  No big deal...

[Snowman Josh]

Definitely looks good Wed/Thur timeframe(18z)  for a system to slide down from the BC coast.  Could be sooner if the approaching wave becomes more consolidated in the northern branch.  Definitely cold enough air in place with -8 to -12 850's widespread. 

 

Looks 50/50 at this point.  I'm still holding out hope for some snow showers early Sunday as the semi-arctic boundary makes its way through the central Puget sound.

[stuffradio]

I counted 8.  No big deal...

I have 5 eddys around my block. I say hi every day.

[Snow]

18z GFS is not good compared to the 12z runs. This is the 18z of course so I am taking it with a grain of salt.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

Stop!! You're scaring me... I am not sure if I should be amazed or bewildered.  

[Deweydog]

The 500mb lancscape at 165 hours looks like a specific part of a female's anatomy.  

[westcoastexpat]

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

 

You spelled Canada wrong. Awkward. 

[Snowman Josh]

18z GFS is not good compared to the 12z runs. This is the 18z of course so I am taking it with a grain of salt.

 

I agree, kind of.  18z appears to keep the undercutting to a minimum, at least out to Thursday.  I think this will be more prolonged, per Rob's comments earlier.

[Deweydog]

What is CDS?

 

Columbus Day Storm.  

[Phil]

You spelled Canada wrong. Awkward.

You sure it's not spelled Cadada?

[Snow]

At hour 189:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_189_1000_500_thick.gif

[Snowman Josh]

CDS: Comprehensive data set?

[stuffradio]

CDS = Canadians Doing Stuff.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like things want to start breaking down around hour 180 with a nice undercutting system. I am only out to 192 but depending on where that tracks it could be epic or just wet.

 

 

[Thunderhill]

At hour 189:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_189_1000_500_thick.gif

December 2008 Redux, that's a massive snowstorm waiting to happen for PDX...or Seattle depending on the next couple frames...or both.

[Thunderhill]

December 2008 Redux, that's a massive snowstorm waiting to happen for PDX...or Seattle depending on the next couple frames...or both.

If that low loses energy and goes south of PDX...wow...that could be bad...bad.

[luvssnow_spokane]

December 2008 Redux, that's a massive snowstorm waiting to happen for PDX...or Seattle depending on the next couple frames...or both.

No snow storm initially as it veers north but a little later on we might get hit around hour 288 lol...! Nice... That initial push warms us up but we rebound a little