January 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, according to the NWS -- snow for Puget Sound (as of today) looks incredibly unlikely to limited. Typical scenario for here -- Plenty of cold to be tapped but no moisture. Yet!

 

... ANOTHER COLDER CANADIAN TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON SUNDAY.
THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL MOIST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE NEW 12Z NAM-12 SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE LATE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH SO THAT
SHOWERS COULD FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR SEA-LEVEL. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT STAY
TUNED. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ECMWF ARE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE LOW BELOW 1000 FEET WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
WELL BELOW 1300 METERS...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET BUT IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE LIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT
THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETROGRADING THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. EVEN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL STAY WITH THE DRY AND COOL
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FELTON

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers.

Agreed. WRF is going to be ridiculously cold Wed - Sat. Oh BTW, GEM has 850mb -17c PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Agreed. WRF is going to be ridiculously cold Wed - Sat. Oh BTW, GEM has 850mb -17c PDX.

 

Wow that is crazy. 

[Snow]

The UKMET is on the train.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Timmy]

Wow that is crazy. 

totes cray

[Gradient Keeper]

The UKMET is on the train.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Thank God! Without the Brit's support this all falls apart very quickly.

[stuffradio]

Thank God! Without the Brit's support this all falls apart very quickly.

We found this out in 1812.

[GobBluth]

The UKMET is on the train.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Now I'm convinced. 

[Gradient Keeper]

We found this out in 1812.

LOL @ THAT !!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF 7:00 PM Wednesday

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif

[Jesse]

Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers.

[Jesse]

Amazing 12z runs so far. Hope the Euro keeps the beat going.

 

It has been awhile since PDX has seen anything in the Feb 5-15 timeframe. Records could definitely fall.

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder than December's blast? 1:00 AM Thursday 925mb temps -15c over PDX!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.141.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif

[Timmy]

WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c!

 

what did we bottom out at in december?

[Snow]

WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif

 

THAT'S INSANE, LOOK AT THE POWER OF THE GORGE!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM 850mb temp loop
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en
Wow is all I can say! Not often you see the -15c to -20c shading over PDX and all of Washington! and -20c to -25c Gorge and Columbia Basin. 850mb temps of -10c or colder PDX through HR 180-192.

 

HR 120 !!

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_120_0850.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

what did we bottom out at in december?

925mb around -13c. This is far colder.

[Canadian guy]

WOW

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Sometimesdylan]

Gotta love what's happening. Hope the cold stays on this side of the coast for a while. Maybe the west coast will see some snow as far south as the east coast has if things keep up. For some reason I am excited to have to warm up my car in the morning...

[50shadesofvan]

For reference, I believe this is as cold as the WRF got us in December. If this verifies records will be falling like dominos. Coldest February Arctic outbreak since at least 1990 for the Vancouver, BC area. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles. Mean around -13c, but notice we stay at -6c or colder now THROUGH February 12th. Also, note how many more cold members there are beyond day 10. This MIGHT become a much longer event(perhaps snowy!)

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

As Steve Pierce would say, "That's Nucking Futs!"

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Snow]

WOW

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

That's RIDICULOUS! The OP is the warmest member, wow. Better in long range too as more members stay colder!

[Timmy]

That's RIDICULOUS! The OP is the warmest member, wow. Better in long range too as more members stay colder!

The 12z Euro run is gonna be huge in this.

[Snow]

The 12z Euro run is gonna be huge in this.

 

Yes it will be.

[Gradient Keeper]

I want some pizza....

[st0rmchaser]

Wow, that's pretty impressive!!

 

If for no other reason than the anticipation/buzz factor, we needed this! The rest of the country has experienced seemingly unprecedented cold while we've been thrown crumbs from the master's table. Our December blast was nice, but it left most of us wanting and expecting more.

[bainbridgekid]

Euro looks cold through hour 120.

 

510 thicknesses just to our East and 850mb temps between -12 and -14.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/f120.gif

[van city]

If this verify Jim will be the happiest person on this forum, he had some ups and downs.

I couldn't be happier for him.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I want some pizza....

I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke...  

[luvssnow_spokane]

If this verify Jim will be the happiest person on this forum, he had some ups and downs.

I couldn't be happier for him.

Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow.  

[Timmy]

Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow.  

Yeah, If it pans out like the 12z has it. that will make an incredible winter.  Record dry with two arctic events, very strange. 

[bainbridgekid]

Sub 510 thicknesses and 850mb temps of -16 to PDX at hour 144 on the Euro.

[van city]

Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow.

 

I realize that, however will be better than what we went through.

[stuffradio]

I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke...  

 I need Rum and Coke. Who cares what time it is!

[Snow]

12z ECMWF at hour 144, OH MY GOD!

[IbrChris]

Word on the street is 12z ECMWF Op is ridiculously cold. -16c at coldest point at hour 144 (run is currently processing).

[Gradient Keeper]

Word on the street is 12z ECMWF Op is ridiculously cold. -16c at coldest point at hour 144 (run is currently processing).

The street folk are right, and very wise.