January 2014 in the PNW

[brody]

Put that $56.02 to good use!

Pffft   

 

more like $55.02, have to go to Moneytree and they charge $0.99 to cash it 

 

NOT

[Weather101]

I'm hoping this turns out well for everyone ! Liking the trend of the models.

[westcoastexpat]

Euro wants to reinstate the ridge in the west/trough in the east scenario (again) in the long range. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

First thing that comes to mind is when was the last time we had two arctic blasts that were dry in the same winter?

Yeah.  It's kind of like the winter had a vasectomy.

[FroYoBro]

Yeah.  It's kind of like the winter had a vasectomy.

That comment made me never want it to snow again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says this is our last chance for a multi-day cold spell!

 

Since it’ll be mid-February by that time, my gut feeling then is that next week will be the last chance for a many-days-long cold spell this season.

[Bryant]

Snowing currently up in Bellingham. Didn't expect to see that

[Weather101]

Mark Nelsen says this is our last chance for a multi-day cold spell!

 

Since it’ll be mid-February by that time, my gut feeling then is that next week will be the last chance for a many-days-long cold spell this season.

Makes sense. More like common sense. He's right our best chance for a week or longer cold spell. Once we hit past mid feb it's more like a day or two maybe a few days max for cold air.

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen says this is our last chance for a multi-day cold spell!

 

Since it’ll be mid-February by that time, my gut feeling then is that next week will be the last chance for a many-days-long cold spell this season.

 

Multi and many are two different things.

 

There is a chance the cold coming up will be more February-like than January-like, though.  Good thing is it most likely will not be March or April-like,  

[BLI snowman]

Dewpoint already down to 22 at BLI with brisk Fraser River outflow. Airmass seems colder than progged.

 

06z NAM and GFS  show a nice snow event on Monday from OLM south, probably a widespread 1-2".

[Weather101]

Dewpoint already down to 22 at BLI with brisk Fraser River outflow. Airmass seems colder than progged.

 

06z NAM and GFS show a nice snow event on Monday from OLM south, probably a widespread 1-2".

Seems quicker too. My Dewpoint is 31 from 41F today.

[bainbridgekid]

6z is the coldest run yet inside the resolution change. 

 

-14 to SEA and -13 to PDX at hour 165.

 

Long range gets messy but it's really cold until day 9 which is what really matters.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z is the coldest run yet inside the resolution change. 

 

-14 to SEA and -13 to PDX at hour 165.

 

Long range gets messy but it's really cold until day 9 which is what really matters.

Yeah, 6z GFS looks good (for cold) 850mb down to -13c, thickness 514. There is good potential for either a brief overrunning event or a something more significant as we transition out of the modified arctic air mass into a moister westerly flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Dewpoint already down to 22 at BLI with brisk Fraser River outflow. Airmass seems colder than progged.

 

06z NAM and GFS  show a nice snow event on Monday from OLM south, probably a widespread 1-2".

Not surprised. I posted last night that arctic air was already sliding south into southern British Columbia and also that you can already see the initial stages of the upcoming cold snap transpiring on IR Loop. Good sign indeed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Modified arctic air is starting to seep into northern Washington, but as well into the Columbia Basin.

 

as of 3 AM

BLI-YWL -9.2mb. This is actually down a bit from yesterday when it was around -11mb. It will probably increase today/tonight.

OMK-YKA -8.1mb northerly flow is pushing down into the Omak, Ephrata and to about Moses Lake.

 

You can see this on the image below.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?wfo=sew&map=otxw&list=1&sort=name

[Gradient Keeper]

As of 4 AM Central and southern British Columbia/Alberta are solidly below zero.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW. 6z GFS Ensembles alert!

 

Portland - The mean temp is down to -13c with several members -15c or colder! Remains at -5c until February 9th. Beyond this point the mean warms, but there are a few cold members which keep things interesting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle - Mean temp down to -14c! Several members colder. Just the same beyond day 10 there is some spread with a few colder members to not perhaps rule out a prolonged cold spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Vancouver, BC - Mean temp -13c and holding around -10c through February 8th-9th! A decent amount of spread beyond this point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[st0rmchaser]

As always, moisture will be at a premium around 2/7 and 2/8. Going only by the 6z ensemble, it appears the cold will hang on until the 9th?

[Gradient Keeper]

With the improved model consistency and agreement amongst the GEM/EURO/GFS through day 7-8 it's hard to not jump on board, hard to note bite at this colder/arctic blast solution. If 12z runs later this morning continue the theme it's starting to look very promising.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for the updates DJ Droppin!

No problem. I was a bit exciting shall we say with what the 6z ensembles revealed! Who wouldn't be? ...

[Gradient Keeper]

As always, moisture will be at a premium around 2/7 and 2/8. Going only by the 6z ensemble, it appears the cold will hang on until the 9th?

Yeah, that seems possible indeed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Any early risers make sure you check out the previous page [125] and look at the 6z GFS Ensembles I posted(If you haven't already seen them) You will be and ... maybe even some

[Gradient Keeper]

? EURO looks cold through day 8, then exactly like the GEM does shoved the next massive wave of cold air southward into the Gulf of Alaska resulting in a flat ridge building over us. I have a hunch models may trend even a bit colder in the 4-8 day range too. We're definitely Seeing improved model consistency and continuity now day 4-8.

My hunch may be paying off!

[brody]

Any early risers make sure you check out the previous page [125] and look at the 6z GFS Ensembles I posted(If you haven't already seen them) You will be and ... maybe even some

That ensemble mean is dipping WAY low and few members across that -15C line

 

I agree moisture may be limited but this could work in our favor sooner than later.

[AnthonyC]

Seattle - Mean temp down to -14c! Several members colder. Just the same beyond day 10 there is some spread with a few colder members to not perhaps rule out a prolonged cold spell.

 

Wow, that's pretty impressive!!

[Jesse]

My hunch may be paying off!

What about your hunch that winter was over back in early January?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensembles OMG!

[Jesse]

Mark Nelsen says this is our last chance for a multi-day cold spell!

 

Since it’ll be mid-February by that time, my gut feeling then is that next week will be the last chance for a many-days-long cold spell this season.

I think that kind of goes without saying.

[Jesse]

06z ensembles OMG!

Yeah, wow. Where did that come from?

[luvssnow_spokane]

06z ensembles OMG!

yeah!!! looks to dry though so looks like a boring December repeat. I hope not would be another total waste of cold air.

[HighlandExperience]

06z ensembles OMG!

 

Pretty nice knowing that it is going to get chilly.

 

Reading the NWS discussion you would think this week would be just a snooze. 

[HighlandExperience]

yeah!!! looks to dry though so looks like a boring December repeat. I hope not would be another total waste of cold air.

 

I don't want to be greedy, but you are right. 

[Jesse]

Important to note the mean stays well below the operational in the long term. An immediate warm up and westerly flow are by no means a given after day 10. The pattern following the cold (assuming we get the cold) will be key to snow chances, IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've never seen the ensemble mean change that much in just one run.

[Timmy]

I've never seen the ensemble mean change that much in just one run.

. Let's just hope it doesn't go back on the next run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 12z is a little faster with the cold air.

[Timmy]

Looks like the 12z is a little faster with the cold air.

With the onset or the exit?

[catnip]

With the onset or the exit?

Onset