January 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the ensembles are great!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow the ensembles are great!

A bit late to the party, junior.... Yep, they are!

[Guest Winterdog]

Day5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day5http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/140131184053.gif

So, you're saying Winter isn't over then.... I gotcha. Finally, a February blast! Finally, it's OUR turn.

[Guest Winterdog]

Euro still has Sea/PDX in the -15 range through day 7 but warming from day 6. Let's see some moisture now!

[stuffradio]

So, you're saying Winter isn't over then.... I gotcha. Finally, a February blast! Finally, it's OUR turn.

Look how much of N.A. is covered in cold air.

[van city]

Rob, I really like your positive attitude, the stuff you were throwing "Winter cancel" was kind of upsetting.

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob, I really like your positive attitude, the stuff you were throwing "Winter cancel" was kind of upsetting.

I was saying it just didn't look good.... I was very close to slamming the door shut I mean, maybe left it open an inch? Let's get some snow this time though!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Look how much of N.A. is covered in cold air.

Yeah, I was noticing that also... Quite impressive!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was saying it just didn't look good.... I was very close to slamming the door shut I mean, maybe left it open an inch? Let's get some snow this time though!

Yeah, I honestly am going to be a little pissed if we get this cold and have no snow or just a snow to rain transition, as both options suck!

[van city]

I was saying it just didn't look good.... I was very close to slamming the door shut I mean, maybe left it open an inch? Let's get some snow this time though!

I am teasing you. I like you this way better.your analysis are great keep the good work.

[FroYoBro]

I think the 12z models are saying Thursday is going to be chilly.

[Gradient Keeper]

I am teasing you. I like you this way better.your analysis are great keep the good work.

But you're pretty much right. I had no optimism towards any cold/snow potential at all.

[Guest Winterdog]

The Euro shows the possibility of precipitation Monday into Tuesday with temps low enough for snow in western Oregon all the way up to the Everett area. It would be nice to have some white grass at least going into this.

[50shadesofvan]

Your initial Opening Ceremony Olympic forecast for February 7th: Sochi +7C Vancouver: -7C

 

LOL.

 

A little ironic, don't you think...

[stuffradio]

Your initial Opening Ceremony Olympic forecast for February 7th: Sochi +7C Vancouver: -7C

 

LOL.

 

A little ironic, don't you think...

Imagine if that was in 2010.

[catnip]

Imagine if that was in 2010.

They would be making snow instead of trucking it in.

 

[Canadian guy]

Your initial Opening Ceremony Olympic forecast for February 7th: Sochi +7C Vancouver: -7C

 

LOL.

 

A little ironic, don't you think...

 

I think it is more ironic that it could be that cold but still no snow in the mountains.

[Brennan]

I know this isn’t a sports thread..... But seriously, Seattle’s first World Championship since the last cold phase, and an extreme arctic blast in the same week? HEAVEN. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Valdez update: the river has drained from the road and crews are starting to clear out the ice that it left. The crews are giving the avalanche debris caution as there might be water still damed in it.

 

2 people were arrested for trying to walk the avalanche path, apparently they were trying to get their sick cat to the clinic.

[Jesse]

Wow. Awesome how close this is looking all of a sudden. The really cold stuff is just 4-6 days out now, and model agreement is stellar.

 

The long range also appears to be loaded with potential.

[Deweydog]

Early-mid February.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke...  

You need to wait until afterwards for the smoke.

[Deweydog]

NOGAPS is the coldest of the 12z's!  

 

You know what that means...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What happened?

[luvssnow_spokane]

What happened?

Not much... we are just smoking cigarettes and eating pizza because the models are FRICKEN AWESOME! for cold>>>>> Dude where ya been!? --- Honestly, they are cold but snowless for the puget sound. The Potential is still out there for a few flakes though.  

 

OR are we smoking pizza and eating cigarettes?Crap!---  I always get those two confused.     

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not much... we are just smoking cigarettes and eating pizza because the models are FRICKEN AWESOME! for cold>>>>> Dude where ya been!? --- Honestly, they are cold but snowless for the puget sound. The Potential is still out there for a few flakes though.

I know, I am up to speed. But trust me it's hard working on cars all day and checking on the weather also. Lol i'm probably the only automotive technician around that's a weather nut.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You need to wait until afterwards for the smoke.

What!!??  Damit! I am always getting that confused...  *puts the cigarettes away*

[BLI snowman]

At this point the trend has been for undercutting from the SW around February 8-9, which would present a classic overrunning snow opportunity that has been missing from the past couple of arctic airmasses.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Early-mid February.  

wrong

[Gradient Keeper]

I seem to remember this guy named Deweydog on the forum here saying this before. Ever heard of him?

[Guest Winterdog]

At this point the trend has been for undercutting from the SW around February 8-9, which would present a classic overrunning snow opportunity that has been missing from the past couple of arctic airmasses.

I'm not giving up hope for at least a minor accumulation Tuesday before the colder air moves in.

[Deweydog]

At this point the trend has been for undercutting from the SW around February 8-9, which would present a classic overrunning snow opportunity that has been missing from the past couple of arctic airmasses.

 

I think we're seeing/will see a mitigation/delay of any undercut activity.  If we've learned anything this cold season, it's that the westerlies are having trouble getting their s**t in one bag.  Just the fact this pattern is looking as if it's going to phase into a decent block speaks volumes.  Even the models showing the undercut are more just a downstream reaction of the intense energy dumping westward from SE Alaska and bombing over the GOA a week or so from now.  That whole evolution seems too fast and furious to me.  RIP Paul Walker.

 

At this point, I'm wondering if we may have to wait for wavelengths to start to change in a few weeks.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Early-mid February.  

I seem to remember this guy named Deweydog on the forum here saying this before. Ever heard of him?

[Deweydog]

I seem to remember this guy named Deweydog on the forum here saying this before. Ever heard of him?

 

I also heard he's a waste of bandwidth.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I also heard he's a waste of bandwidth.  

Not at all, he's a fabulous addition to our 33 up weather forum.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not at all, he's a fabulous addition to our 33 up weather forum.

Lol 33 is a bad word.

[BLI snowman]

I think we're seeing/will see a mitigation/delay of any undercut activity.  If we've learned anything this cold season, it's that the westerlies are having trouble getting their s**t in one bag.  Just the fact this pattern is looking as if it's going to phase into a decent block speaks volumes.  Even the models showing the undercut are more just a downstream reaction of the intense energy dumping westward from SE Alaska and bombing over the GOA a week or so from now.  That whole evolution seems too fast and furious to me.  RIP Paul Walker.

 

At this point, I'm wondering if we may have to wait for wavelengths to start to change in a few weeks.  

 

I'd still tend to err on the side of climo, which would say the westerlies will be a factor on the backside of this. Obviously hasn't been the case recently, but at this point I like our chances for something relative to December. IIRC there never was much of a signal for significant undercutting with that block. 

 

The evolution of this is looking kind of similar to Februaries 1993 and 2006, though. 

[Deweydog]

I'd still tend to err on the side of climo, which would say the westerlies will be a factor on the backside of this. Obviously hasn't been the case recently, but at this point I like our chances for something relative to December. IIRC there never was much of a signal for significant undercutting with that block. 

 

The evolution of this is looking kind of similar to Februaries 1993 and 2006, though. 

 

Maybe... But to steal one from Jim's playbook, climo is out the window this year!

[BLI snowman]

Maybe... But to steal one from Jim's playbook, climo is out the window this year!

 

Well the 12z models all agree on the undercutting theme from the last few days. Euro at 192-216 would be a nice and quick snow dump.