January 2014 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

+1

 

Timmy likes to disagree just to disagree. Reminds me of my ex-girlfriends, yes, all of them.

Yeah...it's pretty obvious that any precip Sunday night will be snow. Even the NWS agrees with that.

[Snow]

18z GFS ensembles are great. The OP was an outlier and way too warm. 00z GFS, GEM and ECMWF will be fantastic tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Jim... this is going to be a slow process now.   Clearing will really come on Monday afternoon and evening and THEN it will cool down.    

 

We always jump the gun on this stuff.    It never gets truly cold until the true clearing commences.

850s will be plenty low by the end of the weekend for snow. That isn't really rushing it as the overall cold pattern will have been in place for a good while by then.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...it's pretty obvious that any precip Sunday night will be snow. Even the NWS agrees with that.

 

 

I do to some extent.

 

We thought that in December with the front coming south (during the Seahawks - Saints game) and it still ended up being mostly just light rain.   We all guaranteed it would be snow by the point.    But it just does not work that way.

[Snowman Josh]

Tuesday for offshore flow.   Read carefully now.   I know what I am saying.    The flow will be onshore down here with any c-zone.    That is how c-zones usually work.  

 

And early Monday is the best shot.    Not Sunday.   We have football to focus on anyways.  

Onshore flow is the only way the PSCZ works, don't think I don't know that. I've been studying the weather around here much longer than 10 years...dude.

 

Takes a big man to admit when he is wrong, and, yes I was wrong about the offshore gradients, just checked them. I still think there will be enough mixing down to the lower levels to give most of us a little clearing, the forecast even supports that.

[Snowman Josh]

I to some extent.

 

We thought that in December with the front coming south (during the Seahawks - Saints game) and it still ended up being mostly just light rain.   We all guaranteed it would be snow by the point.    But it just does not work that way.

This cold air looks to spread much more quickly than the December event, quicker onset so to speak. Not nearly as gradual.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAM HR 9

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_009_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

Onshore flow is the only way the PSCZ works, don't think I don't know that. I've been studying the weather around here much longer than 10 years...dude.

 

Takes a big man to admit when he is wrong, and, yes I was wrong about the offshore gradients, just checked them. I still think there will be enough mixing down to the lower levels to give most of us a little clearing, the forecast even supports that.

 

 

Closer to the water and for the north interior for sure.    Seattle is going to struggle.

[TT-SEA]

00z NAM HR 9

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_009_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Are we tracking the NAM now.  

 

That is a good sign.

[Snowman Josh]

Closer to the water and for the north interior for sure.    Seattle is going to struggle.

 

Seattle is right on the water.

[TT-SEA]

This cold air looks to spread much more quickly than the December event, quicker onset so to speak. Not nearly as gradual.

 

It was supposed to be coming tonight.   I posted maps earlier showing a frigid Saturday morning.    So reality seems to be slower than what the models show at 60 hours out.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Are we tracking the NAM now.  

 

That is a good sign.

Oh, I dunno I was more so joking around... we could, the pattern progression is already underway, so the NAM might be somewhat useful.

[Snowman Josh]

I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle is right on the water.

 

King County is the exception.    Cloud convergence most of the weekend.    Best chance for breaks in King County will be Seattle though.    From Everett north along the water should be decent.   And on the coast.

[Snowman Josh]

King County is the exception.    Cloud convergence most of the weekend.    Best chance for breaks in King County will be Seattle though.    From Everett north along the water should be decent.   And on the coast.

When the sun peaks out tomorrow for you I want a pic.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes.

There are a few disturbances to the north at HR 21 to keep an eye on.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_021_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes.

 

 

I get sort of excited when Rob starts tracking satellite loops and the NAM.    

 

Means we are getting close to something good!  

 

I am like Pavlov's dog with Rob's posts... I start drooling in anticipation.  

[TT-SEA]

When the sun peaks out tomorrow for you I want a pic.

 

 

Maybe for you.   Guarantee it won't happen out here amongst all these hills.  

[Snowman Josh]

At the least looks like Northern California and maybe points south will get some precip. Sierras will start getting some snow as well.

 

I know it is bad here but they are in dire need.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian looks very hopeful for snow Sunday night. Also some ensembles on the Canadian are going for a longer cold snap now. Extending this thing will be crucial for getting big snow.

[TT-SEA]

850s will be plenty low by the end of the weekend for snow. That isn't really rushing it as the overall cold pattern will have been in place for a good while by then.

 

850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening.    That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow.     

 

Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough.

[Snowman Josh]

The Canadian looks very hopeful for snow Sunday night. Also some ensembles on the Canadian are going for a longer cold snap now. Extending this thing will be crucial for getting big snow.

Ya, the Canadian looks filthy. Hey, that's where it is coming from, maybe they are the winners with this one?

[Snowman Josh]

850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening.    That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow.     

 

Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough.

Ya, but 500mb temps in the -30to -35 range will support snow around -4 850's with heavy precip.

[Gradient Keeper]

I get sort of excited when Rob starts tracking satellite loops and the NAM.    

 

Means we are getting close to something good!  

 

I am like Pavlov's dog with Rob's posts... I start drooling in anticipation.  

IR Loops 4 life. I'm drooling as we speak.... but I am not pulling any 24 hours shifts anymore. Nope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

IR Loops 4 life. I'm drooling as we speak.... but I am not pulling any 24 hours shifts anymore. Nope.

 

Good. That ain't healthy!

[Gradient Keeper]

Good. That s**t ain't healthy!

Lol probably not...

[Snowman Josh]

This is what we need:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bojFWBHGl9U/T0Fd8U6PBPI/AAAAAAAAGTs/OpBgb3ftAmA/s1600/500vor.66.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening.    That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow.     

 

Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough.

With northerly gradients it will be cold enough.

[snow_wizard]

The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky.

[Snowman Josh]

The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol just totally crashed face down mashed into keyboard..... be back for 00z GFS, GEM, EURO.

[TT-SEA]

The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky.

 

 

Jim... check out the 12Z WRF.   Its probably coming back as some type of warm front later tonight and tomorrow.   

 

All the models showed some brief clearing this evening.    It likely will not last for us.   

 

There is very little tricky about this view of tomorrow morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.27.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Lol just totally crashed face down mashed into keyboard..... be back for 00z GFS, GEM, EURO.

 

[GHweatherChris]

I am more tickled by this blast than the one in December.  Feeling good about it.

 

This one overall is a strange progression, and has to have some surprises.

[BLI snowman]

850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening.    That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow.     

 

Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough.

 

-6c or lower with offshore flow (which is key) is great for snow, so long as there is some legitimate precip to work with. If anyone sees any steady stuff on Sunday evening, expect accumulating snow.

[Snowman Josh]

MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH TO AFFECT WRN WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE SOLUTIONS MIRRORED CLOSELY BY THE CANADIAN. THESE MODELS BRING IN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL/N WA COAST. THIS PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LOW PRESSURE AXIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 500 FT OR LESS WHICH MEANS THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SPOTTY LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AS WELL...

[TT-SEA]

MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH TO AFFECT WRN WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE SOLUTIONS MIRRORED CLOSELY BY THE CANADIAN. THESE MODELS BRING IN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL/N WA COAST. THIS PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LOW PRESSURE AXIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 500 FT OR LESS WHICH MEANS THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SPOTTY LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AS WELL...

 

 

I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning.    Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area.

 

I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday.   

 

That is the best shot by far going into the cold air.

 

Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area.    Don't like saying it but its true... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt.   MOS guidance has 42 at SEA that day even with -8C or -9C.

[Snowman Josh]

I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning.    Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area.

 

I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday.   

 

That is the best shot by far going into the cold air.

 

Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area.    Unfortunately... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt.

Ya, but late sunday into Monday could be fun if a decent PSCZ sets up, all I'm saying. Could be a few bursts of snow here and there, hail, maybe a little rumble. Much better than what we have seen for sure.

 

We all know that later in the week is the main event. Going to be fun to watch everything unfold. Go Hawks!!

[TT-SEA]

Ya, but late sunday into Monday could be fun if a decent PSCZ sets up, all I'm saying. Could be a few bursts of snow here and there, hail, maybe a little rumble. Much better than what we have seen for sure.

 

We all know that later in the week is the main event. Going to be fun to watch everything unfold. Go Hawks!!

 

 

I agree... with the ECMWF set-up it could be pretty active on Monday morning.   And the ECMWF is so far superior in this situation is not even a contest.

[Snowman Josh]

I agree... with the ECMWF set-up it could be pretty active on Monday morning.   And the ECMWF is so far superior in this situation is not even a contest.

 

We agreed? Sweet, finally .

 

Kidding aside, I trust the European within 72 hours without fail. GFS has been on crack for a couple years now, maybe longer.