January 2014 in the PNW

[Snowman Josh]

We'd measure snow in feet if that verified, Rob.

[Snow]

So its guaranteed to happen now????    

 

Should say they would get crushed if that run somehow came close to verifying.

 

No but the potential is there. I like our chances because everything evens out in the end, moisture will come our way finally.

[Snow]

I will take the coldness of the GEM and the wetness of the GFS. Maybe the ECMWF will show both.

[Snowman Josh]

I know one thing. If that verifies then there will be a lot of guys cursing their snow contest numbers .

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian would likely lead to a totally different scenario next weekend... with the undercut happening much farther south if at all.

[Jesse]

Sooo...the 00z sucked?

 

I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sooo...the 00z sucked?

 

I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north.

 

-14C 850mb temps at PDX suck...

[FroYoBro]

At this point we just want the models to show consistent cold hitting us. Looking good. We all know low placement/undercutting/overrunning moisture details won't be figured out until we are actually in the cold event. 

[Snowman Josh]

Sooo...the 00z sucked?

 

I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north.

Very true. I was just trying to keep the cold air around with probably a little less snow . With that deep of cold air in BC though, a reload could happen.

[Jesse]

I will take the colder and drier Canadian thank you very much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Either way its going to be a cold month in North Dakota.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will take the colder and drier Canadian thank you very much.

 

Me too...Unless we can dial up a March 2012 redux. Imagine that a month earlier...

[Jesse]

-14C 850mb temps at PDX suck...

It's annoying when people are negative for no good reason, isn't it?

[TT-SEA]

I probably should shut down the forums then, I wouldn't want people to get emotionally wrapped up for some 41F and rain. Thanks Tim!

 

Where did you read that??

 

The Canadian likely keeps us in the cold longer... but would not have the massive overrunning event next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

I agree... I would prefer the Canadian run. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX finished exactly average for January.

[Snow]

Where did you read that??

 

The Canadian likely keeps us in the cold longer... but would not have the massive overrunning event next weekend.

 

Your wrong, it would indeed. Massive blizzard if this verifies

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Ice storm anyone?

[GHweatherChris]

About the same on the 00Z GFS run.

 

There is no reload.   

 

Becomes very wet and windy... all rain for the lowlands.

Somewhat similiar, but in 2008 there was no total warmup for another week,.

[Jesse]

I agree... I would prefer the Canadian run.

The 00z GFS is playing with fire. Sure if such and such low miraculously tracked further south we'd all get snow, but that never happens.

 

Keep us cold and dry for longer then hopefully see a more traditional overrunning event later on.

[TT-SEA]

Ice storm anyone?

 

 

No thanks.    

[TT-SEA]

The 00z GFS is playing with fire. Sure if such and such low miraculously tracked further south we'd all get snow, but that never happens.

 

Keep us cold and dry for longer then hopefully see a more traditional overrunning event later on.

 

 

I am sure our biggest snow events in history were playing with fire.  

[GHweatherChris]

The models all look good for different reasons right now, what  a great start going into this snap.

[TT-SEA]

Your wrong, it would indeed. Massive blizzard if this verifies

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

 

 

I was guessing based on 144 hours... that adds some weight to the GFS solution.

 

Do you have the 850mb temp at that time??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS guidance...

 

[FroYoBro]

Anyone viewing this site on a Nintendo Wii?

Hell no.

[FroYoBro]

GFS guidance...

 

Something bad...

[Jesse]

GFS guidance...

 

 

That looks bogus.

[Sometimesdylan]

00z continues the cold for us. Winter is very much alive. Crazy.

[Jesse]

This place is bumming me out tonight. 

 

Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs?

[bainbridgekid]

This place is bumming me out tonight. 

 

Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs?

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.111.0000.gif

[FroYoBro]

This place is bumming me out tonight. 

 

Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs?

Dude, just look at the models and ignore people. It is still looking great for cold and a chance for snow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS guidance...

 

well that is lame.

[Gradient Keeper]

37 for the high temp? Not with 925mb temps -16c

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020100/images_d2/slp.132.0000.gif

[Jesse]

37 for the high temp? Not with 925mb temps -16c

 

That's what I was thinking.

 

I want to like and respect Andrew, then he posts stuff like that just to get a rise out of people...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just report the facts. Don't shoot the messenger.

[GHweatherChris]

I just report the facts. Don't shoot the messenger.

Where does that fact come from??

 

I just looked at the meteo output for the 00z gfs for SEA and PDX and it shows nothing like that. And with the actual numbers the models are showing the temps you posted are not realistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's what I was thinking.

 

I want to like and respect Andrew, then he posts stuff like that just to get a rise out of people...

 

That is the GFSx for PDX. 

 

Just another tool in our forecasting arsenal!

[Jesse]

Hoping the 00Z was once again warmer than the ensemble mean.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where does that fact come from??

 

The GFS model.