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January 2014 in the PNW

TT-SEA

By TT-SEA
in West of the Rockies

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luterra Contributor

luterra

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Posted

The 500mb lancscape at 165 hours looks like a specific part of a female's anatomy.  

One of the oddest looking patterns I have seen.  Lots of cutoff features, lots of variables at play.  Can't say I'm strongly convinced of anything past hr 120.

 

That strange tightly wound cutoff high over northern AK is combining with the polar vortex over Baffin Bay to generate crazy strong meridional flow.  Not sure what to make of it all yet, but it better be something fun :-)

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SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

I asked my daughter what she thought about everyone bickering about nothing...  

Guest Winterdog
Guest Winterdog

Let’s face it; this is not just a scientific forum.  That is the beauty of it to me.  This forum has always been a great mix of science, statistics, hunches, humor, and lots of personal feelings demon

brody
brody

And you're one of them.     NOT with confrontational people like you.   It's fascinating seeing you call people out for their opinion but then acting as if your opinion is the only one that matters.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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One of the oddest looking patterns I have seen.  Lots of cutoff features, lots of variables at play.  Can't say I'm strongly convinced of anything past hr 120.

 

That strange tightly wound cutoff high over northern AK is combining with the polar vortex over Baffin Bay to generate crazy strong meridional flow.  Not sure what to make of it all yet, but it better be something fun :-)

 

Lots of moving parts.  I hope no one is in love with any one scenario at this point.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Thunderhill Newbie

Thunderhill

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No snow storm initially but a little later on we get hit! Nice... That initial push warms us up but we rebound to snow and cold quickly.

When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.

I am thinking of us Puget sounders... :)  To far out to worry about but nice to see an attempt for some white stuff. We shall see... ;)

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Snow Newbie

Snow

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When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.

 

Your right, it all depends on where that low tracks. The potential is HUGE.

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Thunderhill Newbie

Thunderhill

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Your right, it all depends on where that low tracks. The potential is HUGE.

Yup...then again there could be NO westerlies on the 00z haha...could be bone dry.  HOWEVER, the GFS has been very consistent in bringing some sort of westerly flow into the west coast starting in the 180-240 timeframe...

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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Ugh

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thunderhill Newbie

Thunderhill

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HAHA, one run, we'll see a lot of wavering with the dynamic pattern change that is progged, like Dewey said, I wouldn't get to wrapped up in any one model run, you may crash and burn. 

What we do know is that it looks like we will get cold, what happens after it arrives...good luck predicting the few days following it's arrival.

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

Posted
Posted

Hate to see the 18z water down the cold. I figured we'd have a run like that today.

Yep it was inevitable for us to see a run like that.  The good thing is though, it really wasn't that bad.  At least it didn't take away the cold completely, although I bet we see a run that does that by tomorrow night, we usually do.

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weatherfan2012 Community Regular

weatherfan2012

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Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

the models are having a really differcult time handeling this pattern it will be interisting to see where this gos mid to late february and March.another question is the AO how do you see that playing out.one thing is clear we are going into a new pattern for the nation.
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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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I agree, kind of.  18z appears to keep the undercutting to a minimum, at least out to Thursday.  I think this will be more prolonged, per Rob's comments earlier.

I wouldn't trust that guy he's full of .

 

Columbus Day Storm.  

Yep.

 

When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.

Oh ya, tons of potential. 18z shows a snow event, then major ice storm for PDX/Gorge.

 

Warm bias.  

Yes. In my opinion if 00z runs tonight mirror 12z we may need to shave a few more degrees off these temps.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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I wouldn't trust that guy he's full of s**t.

 

Yep.

 

Oh ya, tons of potential. 18z shows a snow event, then major ice storm for PDX/Gorge.

 

Yes. In my opinion if 00z runs tonight mirror 12z we may need to shave a few more degrees off these temps.

 

:lol:

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Snowman Josh Newbie

Snowman Josh

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Posted

It would be so cool if these ensembles could be kept in one place--you know, you can read the 00 after the 18 after the 12, etc.  It would be so easy to make comparisons then.

 

I'm just not very sophistimicated.

Meteograms my friend, meteograms.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

4:47 PM Update
The system for Monday can already be see up in Yukon. You can see on IR Loop it's progressing southward slowly. Where exactly this tracks will play a role in how much precip we see, or if it's largely dry. If it slides a bit offshore it could pick up a bit of moisture. If it tracks further inland things should be fairly dry.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

Also, I personally am not ruling out the remote chance for a surprise dusting to snow to quick 1" with this, but everything has to come together just right. This system as it heads south is also what will dig out the arctic trough over western Washington and Oregon bringing very cold air into the area Tuesday - Saturday(possibly beyond?). So all of the pieces are in place and the pattern progression can be seen in real-time on IR Loop instead of merely relying on the models to see the what and when. I really like that you can track things now with the eye and not rely solely on stupid computers.

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/n5sgop.png

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