January 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS certainly not backing off...Still dry as a bone.

[catnip]

The 12z GFS certainly not backing off...Still dry as a bone.

Ya, looking pretty cold.

 

Shame about it being so dry... again.

[Timmy]

Chris c says 46 out of 50 euro ensembles give us wintry precip on days 8-9 with the mean at about 3" of snow. As per the 00z

[Snow]

I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159?

[stuffradio]

Myforecast gives Maple Ridge close to 40 cm by Feb 9.

[Snow]

Chris c says 46 out of 50 euro ensembles give us wintry precip on days 8-9 with the mean at about 3" of snow. As per the 00z

 

F*** YEA!

[GobBluth]

Wow, -20 850s encroaching into eastern Oregon by Thursday afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159?

 

Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift.

[Snow]

Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift.

 

Pretty close to snow? It will be windy because of the cold east winds.

[GHweatherChris]

Hopefully some moisture starts showing in the models soon, I would hate to waste this chance.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift.

I don't think it's Windy.  He would have simply said, "score!!!!"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty close to snow? It will be windy because of the cold east winds.

 

LOL...The 510 line is pretty close to PDX. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I've never seen the ensemble mean change that much in just one run.

Me neither. I mean a drop of 2 or 4c maybe, but not 6 or 7c. Craziness

[Snow]

Hopefully some moisture starts showing in the models soon, I would hate to waste this chance.

 

Me too, who would of thought this time it could even be colder.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can't believe what I'm seeing, 510 line to Portland by hour 159?

And super dry!  --- Waiting to see some moisture and then we are talking.  I think that is what we all really want... ? If it ends up like the December event I think we are going to be left for wanting. Cold without snow... Yawn!

[Gradient Keeper]

What about your hunch that winter was over back in early January?

Oh, yeah, about that... I did say to leave the door slightly ajar and to see what the models looked like by the end of the month, ummm, yeahhhhh sounds good. Anyhow

 

So far it looks a touch colder than 6z! 850mb nearly -15c and thickness around 511 I believe. *Rubs eyes*

[Snow]

And super dry!  --- Waiting to see some moisture and then we are talking.  I think that is what we all really want... ? If it ends up like the December event I think we are going to be left for wanting. Cold without snow... Yawn!

 

What's crazy is that even Southern California gets moisture as the cold air drops down to them. Actually all of the SW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 216 the overrunning potential looks pretty good.

[Snow]

It's going to be a race now of how fast the system gets to us before all the arctic cold air retreats.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With the energy heading south this looks like a good overrunning event for W. Oregon...Of course this far out it really means nothing.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_1000_500_thick.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Round 2

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

At hour 216 the overrunning potential looks pretty good.

A nice snow to rain transition? 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM though HR 144 looks very cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A nice snow to rain transition? 

 

I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso.

 

At face value, we all know it will change from run to run.

[Snow]

I think the cold air probably stays in place as the first system goes into S. Oregon, N. California. Light snow Eugene to Kelso.

 

It will stay in place, PDX wont lose the cold gorge east winds. H pressure still in Southern BC feeding cold air through. The Willamette Valley looks like it will get a nice snowstorm.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Goodies
Check out the COLD extracted raw numbers

Portland/Troutdale -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
The Dalles - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdls
Salem - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksle
Pendleton - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdt
Bellingham - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbli
Moses Lake - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmwh
Seattle - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea
Spokane - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgeg
Williams, Lake BC -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cywl

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well it will be nice to have some cold air here... Now lets do our snow dance!!  

[TT-SEA]

I don't know what this means for down the road... but this weekend looks pretty messy.    The cold air that was supposed to come through today now gets stuck in place and tomorrow there is a band of drizzle and clouds moving NORTH up through Bellingham again.

 

Looks like it will be Monday now before it will get cold enough to scour out the low level moisture for good south of Everett.

 

Could very well drizzle here all weekend.   Not what was shown earlier.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the GFS extracted data is incredibly cold. 512 thickness and -14C 850 mb temps at Salem.

[Snow]

12z GFS Goodies

Check out the COLD extracted raw numbers

 

Portland/Troutdale -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

The Dalles - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdls

Salem - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksle

Pendleton - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdt

Bellingham - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbli

Moses Lake - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmwh

Seattle - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea

Spokane - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgeg

Williams, Lake BC -http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cywl

 

Check out those east winds from the gorge! High temps below freezing from Wed to at least Friday for much of the western interior.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 is nice! lol

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks like it has much more snow potential later next week.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian at 144 hours:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM appears ever colder yet.
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en
Thickness appears to briefly fall below 510 around 507-508. Very impressive. After day 7-8 a series of very strong low pressure areas rotate up towards Vancouver Island. Appears to me this is setting the stage for a snow/ice event, perhaps major ice storm if things work out right. Heck, may even have to watch out for south wind event/storm potential.

[GobBluth]

Hour 384 is nice! lol

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif

California can start to back off the drought predictions.

[stuffradio]

It would be nice to end winter on a bang.

March in like a Lion, out like a Lamb?

[Gradient Keeper]

As we always say, "Let's get the cold air here first, get it firmly in place, then worry about moisture details later." same applies here.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF

Tuesday 10:00 PM COLD!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z WRF

Tuesday 10:00 PM COLD!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif

 

Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers.