January 2014 in the PNW

[westcoastexpat]

Wow, Mount Washington on Vancouver Island has shut down for the season after only 3 weeks of being open.

 

They may need to reopen, though. Mountain snows can definitely be sustained given what the models have been showing, my only concern is the lack of impressive moisture. 

 

Modified arctic air definitely seems to be in the cards. It's funny that many places many finish this winter with below normal temps and below normal precip but overall I think most would say that the winter has been pretty lame. February may surprise.

[Guest Monty67]

Wow, Mount Washington on Vancouver Island has shut down for the season after only 3 weeks of being open.

 

They may need to reopen, though. Mountain snows can definitely be sustained given what the models have been showing, my only concern is the lack of impressive moisture. 

 

Modified arctic air definitely seems to be in the cards. It's funny that many places many finish this winter with below normal temps and below normal precip but overall I think most would say that the winter has been pretty lame. February may surprise.

You are a scholarly met now as well?

[catnip]

Wow, Mount Washington on Vancouver Island has shut down for the season after only 3 weeks of being open.

 

They may need to reopen, though. Mountain snows can definitely be sustained given what the models have been showing, my only concern is the lack of impressive moisture. 

 

Modified arctic air definitely seems to be in the cards. It's funny that many places many finish this winter with below normal temps and below normal precip but overall I think most would say that the winter has been pretty lame. February may surprise.

 

Not for the season, well at least not yet.

 

Pretty Sad.

 

They need a few good pacific storms to dump on them, as they can pick up a lot of snow when the conditions are right. Doesn't look like they have much hope in the near future though.

[Guest Monty67]

6z EURO, GEM and GFS look decently chilly. Hope their is decent moisture to work with in later runs.

I don't think the Euro or GEM run a 6z.....do they?

[HighlandExperience]

Wow, Mount Washington on Vancouver Island has shut down for the season after only 3 weeks of being open.

 

They may need to reopen, though. Mountain snows can definitely be sustained given what the models have been showing, my only concern is the lack of impressive moisture. 

 

Modified arctic air definitely seems to be in the cards. It's funny that many places many finish this winter with below normal temps and below normal precip but overall I think most would say that the winter has been pretty lame. February may surprise.

 

It seems our best snows come in marginal situations. Thankfully it is still snowing over the Central Cascades due to a nice CZ. Picked up nearly 14 inches at snoqualmie overnight. This storm has been a huge help.

[catnip]

I don't think the Euro or GEM run a 6z.....do they?

 

00z and 12z only.

[HighlandExperience]

00z and 12z only.

 

I mean tto say the last Euro and GEM. But the 6z GFS didn't look bad.

[westcoastexpat]

Not for the season, well at least not yet.

 

Pretty Sad.

 

They need a few good pacific storms to dump on them, as they can pick up a lot of snow when the conditions are right. Doesn't look like they have much hope in the near future though.

 

I'm sure they will reopen. They have two months where they can still score some dumps. People in Vancouver Island would be willing to go late in the season given how snow starved it has been, so they would be smart to open whenever they can. I'm just surprised because I have always found Mount Washington to be one of the snowiest in the southern BC region. I can't believe they didn't open until Jan.12!

[westcoastexpat]

It seems our best snows come in marginal situations. Thankfully it is still snowing over the Central Cascades due to a nice CZ. Picked up nearly 14 inches at snoqualmie overnight. This storm has been a huge help.

 

I'm glad they avoided the rain. This was a very potent system. With cooler temperatures I don't see melting to be much of a concern. Snoqualmie always surprises, gotta love it.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm glad they avoided the rain. This was a very potent system. With cooler temperatures I don't see melting to be much of a concern. Snoqualmie always surprises, gotta love it.

 

Ya... I think this may be some of the best skiing of the season (this pathetic season) coming up this week at Snoqualmie and Stevens. Of course I am hoping that it will get even better

 

Edit: Can you imagine the disaster this would have been if rain fell the entire time?

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS showing solid freezing fog potential out to 72 hours (Sunday morning) for lowlands around Seattle (particularly Jim's region):

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS looks like its going in a positive direction at hour 174

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I like where the 12z is going. Solid cold up to hr 186 and it looks like some good stuff to follow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z GFS looks like its going in a positive direction at hour 174

 we were thinking the same.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like where the 12z is going.

 

No doubt. Me too...

 

Should be close to snow at my location tonight. Precip looks light though, so with the marginal airmass I don't think the ingredients will come together for me tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140130.201402.gif

[westcoastexpat]

Dry arctic air starting to move in. Definitely looks like a cooler run, but also really dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS is good...And then its not...

`

[TT-SEA]

I like where the 12z is going. Solid cold up to hr 186 and it looks like some good stuff to follow.

 

 

You guys are not seeing clearly this morning... that is a breakdown situation at 186 hours.    About to go zonal.    Which is fine... and what the 00Z ECMWF showed as well.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GFS is good...And then its not...

`

 

Pretty obvious what is about to happen at 180 hours on that run.   

[westcoastexpat]

Could potentially be a good run for Vancouver, I like the positioning of that low around 180 hours. Nothing significant but something to watch.

 

00Z Euro has been consistent showing a cold Aleutian low dropping down the BC coast as well in the (very) extended. Never get into specifics that far out, but pattern is promising.

 

February could be interesting for the lower mainland in BC. Tight gradient, though. Areas south of Bellingham may miss out altogether for the time being.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian still looking different at 144 hours.

 

This set-up could be huge for Oregon.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[westcoastexpat]

Yup, GGEM looks quite different.

 

Eugene special again? Not likely, but it would be pretty amazing for Eugene to finish with more snow than any of its northern lowland city companions.

 

I'm not impressed with the thermals with that system, though. Would be pretty borderline, makes me nervous; then again, it's over a week out, definitely too early to be looking at details. Something to monitor.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be nice to have some southern energy merge with the cold dropping down around day 8. Gets close but low is to far north.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You guys are not seeing clearly this morning... that is a breakdown situation at 186 hours.    About to go zonal.    Which is fine... and what the 00Z ECMWF showed as well.

Yes, but there are times it meets in the middle for a epic snow event. But hard to come by.

[westcoastexpat]

It would be nice to have some southern energy merge with the cold dropping down around day 8. Gets close but low is to far north.

 

It does get close! Worth monitoring, particularly for my home region (US-Canadian border)

[Guest Winterdog]

Ensembles. 

 

 

[Phil]

At least the tropical forcing will favor an active wave train..it's been awhile to say the least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the tropical forcing will favor an active wave train..it's been awhile to say the least.

 

An active pattern gives me a better chance for snow, and significant snow at that. A blocky pattern not so much. March 2012 was active as hell, I had 40" of snow.

[westcoastexpat]

Marginal, small overrunning event could be in the cards at the end of the first week of Feb, followed by a more typical wet pattern with mountain snows.

[HighlandExperience]

Marginal, small overrunning event could be in the cards at the end of the first week of Feb, followed by a more typical wet pattern with mountain snows.

 

Might be a strong N-S gradient. I kinda doubt Eugene will get slammed again.

 

At least the mountains will improve over the next few weeks.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

An active pattern gives me a better chance for snow, and significant snow at that. A blocky pattern not so much. March 2012 was active as hell, I had 40" of snow.

Same here near hood canal. At this point give me anything.

[Guest Winterdog]

Euro at day 7!!!!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro at day 7!!!!

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/140130184148.gif

 

 

I hope the EURO is leading the way!

[bainbridgekid]

Legitimate arctic blast starting at day 7 and what looks like the makings of an overrunning event at 216 on the Euro.

[westcoastexpat]

Beware of the Euro, it has been painfully inconsistent for the most part, but it does continue to occasionally show that low popping up in eastern OR/WA that I've been talking about for nearly a week now. The main issue is that it is rather dry, but if it can tap into some moisture, it could get interesting.

 

12Z Euro now showing what the 12Z GGEM did too at about 220 hours: snows for the coast, particularly Oregon

[Phil]

Here's the major reason why the ECMWF is showing a cold solution.

 

Full column PV split/SSW event, with enhanced vertical eddy activity moving into western Canada: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

 

This is the perfect wave orientation for the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Legitimate arctic blast starting at day 7 and what looks like the makings of an overrunning event at 216 on the Euro.

 

 

Yep... Arctic blast in full swing on the detail maps at 168 hours.   Pretty much dry in WA at that time.    

 

Will need moisture to come in later with this set-up.

[Phil]

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

 

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

 

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

 

The result of the said hemispheric shear regime has been persistent NPAC height rises. While the tropical forcings have been able to knock the ridging/wave breaking around, the general theme of rising heights somewhere around the NPAC continued given the momentum above the ferrel cell rifts.

[westcoastexpat]

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

 

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

 

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

 

Hey Phil, I really appreciate your contributions to the thread!

 

To be fair, I know that you have been asked (many times) before to speak in layman terms. I have a feeling that you are aware that few (if any) posters aren't going to comprehend your third/final sentence.

 

You're a smart guy, clearly, and as much as you know about the ENSO/AAM inertia and MJO/RMM submissiveness in the QBO stress field, you are also smart enough to know that it has (often) been asked of you to clarify what you mean when you make posts referencing these types of acronyms.

 

Perhaps start your own thread again if it is difficult for you to "dumb down" your references. I think many of us, including myself, are very interested in how these "things" influence our weather, but it's essentially useless if we don't understand what they mean, right? It would be great if you could elaborate. However, if your explanation of what these complicated terms mean ends up spawning even more complicated terms, then it's probably best to not reference them at all, yes?

 

Thanks in advance!