Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 I believe the 18z Nam had the ULL way NW of the low That's good. It will help draw in the colder air down from aloft and from the North. Kuchera vs. the 10:1. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 850 in a perfect spot or at least you would think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 ParaEuro sure is lovin' on NWIN. Hope that transpires and propagates NE towards me. Right now, I'm in a bit of a lull zone where neither lake is adding anything. At least that's what it looks like to me. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Need the 850 mb low to back up just a little more. If this thing can phase up to 700mb then the snow band will extend far into N IL/ SE WI.We need the trough at 500mb to start to dig under the low a bit more. Once that happens the low will come further west and probably slow down.You can see the ULL over South Bend on this map. Next map shows it doing just that. Earlier the better though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids.Sounds like a great call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Sounds like a great call Haha~ The funniest part was that they actually said the East Coast was getting impacted at first. They were playing it up like it was going to be repeat of that blizzard. Widespread 20" amounts just don't happen in the Great Lakes. LOT's latest graphic. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids.It's probably the RPM model...they just showed in on ABC nightly news... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I wonder if a Blizzard Watch will be put out. Winds will be really strong. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Will be some interesting 0z runs tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Is this a winter storm, or a hurricane?? (borrowed) 22z RAP.....look at this thing!!! This is 850mb winds. It's a beast & just getting started. http://forums.accuweather.com/style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced: 75% of original size [ 847 x 701 ] - Click to view full imagehttp://i.imgur.com/YTibqNm.png Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I wonder if a Blizzard Watch will be put out. Winds will be really strong. I've dreampt of scoring one (toughest winter headline to score) since they started being used. I actually had the idea about 10 yrs before the Denver WFO made it a common place item. LOT has zero problem issuing them. Michigan offices are another story. Cant remember seeing one anywhere in the state. GHD1 they upgraded from WSWarnings or went straight to the BlizWarn, cant remember tbh. You're gonna get rocked over there btw on the backside. Winds howling like Chicago normally sees and Detroit almost never sees outside of the '78 bliz. Get ready Nikos! fun couple days looming for us (all really). Good Luck! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well 0z Nam has a shutout for ORD..the fat lady is tuning up for the kill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I was looking at the surface maps vs. the snowfall map and it makes no sense. There should be a little snow in NE IL. 4km NAM does the same thing, showing snow many hours. Nothing on the ground. Wondering if it's seeing the warm ground... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Jaster/WestJim should do good with this storm. Indianajohn will prob be on the NW edge of the defo band. It'll be interesting watching the radar and high rez models by tomorrow night. Edit: Niko and Marcus are in the game also. Prob the biggest snowfall of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 SREF came back west http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I was looking at the surface maps vs. the snowfall map and it makes no sense. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022300/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_19.png There should be a little snow in NE IL. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022300/namconus_asnow_ncus_20.png 4km NAM does the same thing, showing snow many hours. Nothing on the ground. Wondering if it's seeing the warm ground... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016022300/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.pngTidbits maps do it all the time. They show reflectivity all the time with storms that dont produce a flake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Don't what the point of showing snow aloft that never reaches the ground on the maps. Crazy NAM. End of the WRF-NMM is really amped up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Don't what the point of showing snow aloft that never reaches the ground on the maps. Crazy NAM. End of the WRF-NMM is really amped up. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016022212/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_eus_48.pngThose are some heavy rates of precip! The radar should look phenomenal on Wednesday. Meantime, 00z GFS came in a tad NW and now showing 1-3" for extreme NE IL and SE sections advisory type snows. NW IN/SW MI posters sitting pretty. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yeah I can see the GFS is coming closer to Louisville on this run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 @ Jaster/West Jim, when this storm scoots on by, 40-50 mph winds lock in out of the WNW and the GFS picking up on Lehs snowfall. I see a lolipop blip of 12" right by you Jaster! Haha.... Edit: IndianaJohn also gets hit hard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff Yeah especially east of the lake. 34-35°. Yikes. I've never gotten good accumulation above 34.0°. 33.0° makes a world of difference. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wow this is getting interesting.... I am worried that northern lake county Indiana misses the heavy snow. Looks like it's gonna be close!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 @ Jaster/West Jim, when this storm scoots on by, 40-50 mph winds lock in out of the WNW and the GFS picking up on Lehs snowfall. I see a lolipop blip of 12" right by you Jaster! Haha.... Edit: IndianaJohn also gets hit hard Thx buddy! That yellow is not quite far enough inland for mby in Marshall. Remember I'm 3rd county in - some 80 mile from the lake. If the winds truly are WNW though, their strength and the low baro will carry it all the way here. Had a solid 9" on the back side of Dec '09 WI bliz for that very reason. 0z GFS is what I'm cheering for right now. Falling in line with Euro Para and quite the major event for this area! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff Good points on milder snowstorms from Hoosier at AmWx. Could this be Detroit Thursday morning? "Thinking of blizzards that had wet snow and not drier snow that is more common, one that comes to mind is March 9, 1998...also a super Nino winter. Temps did drop with time but there's a good stretch there of temps in the 30s with blizzard conditions." obs from Gary: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Low track practically crosses over Toledo on this run. GGEM Low west of Louisville at 39 hours... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 well with any luck, this might get me past 20" for the season. lol didnt the last couple of larger storms in the area end up with the snow expanding further northwest of the low. and the last couple of storms ended up tracking more north didnt they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 well with any luck, this might get me past 20" for the season. lol didnt the last couple of larger storms in the area end up with the snow expanding further northwest of the low. and the last couple of storms ended up tracking more north didnt they? Yeah largely.This setup reminds me of the 1/9 system. For day and days the heaviest snow was supposed to fall in the exact area that we are looking at now and then it ended up snowing more here than NW IN and a secondary deformation band went up farther east. Seeing those warm surface temperatures is a red flag. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 UK MET stays on course. Low is north of Louisville. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Chicago and western MI, NW IN get pounded on the UK MET. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Total moisture.Downtown Chicago at 2.5cm, which is about an inch of moisture. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 WRF NMM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 For the record, I hope I don't get any snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'll take it Tbone. EURO on a similar track to last nights 0z run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Has this been sampled? It seems the models are still all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Has this been sampled? It seems the models are still all over the place. It was over Western Mexico this afternoon, so yeah it should have been. Don't know how good their data collecting is. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 It was over Western Mexico this afternoon, so yeah it should have been. Don't know how good their data collecting is.Just odd to see this much fluctuation in models this close. Just fits this winter I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just odd to see this much fluctuation in models this close. Just fits this winter I guess. GFS was the steadiest with the 2/2 storm for days. So I have to give that model the credit. GGEM hasn't done very good since the November storm. I would toss that for being too warm and too far east with the snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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