Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

0z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f45/acckucherasnowmw.png

[gosaints]

Both nam's cut back on the good stuff considerably.  not uncommon i guess

[gosaints]

4km

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Little bit left to go

[Money]

Odd looking radar composite 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/crefmw.png

[Geos]

Ice moving south.

 

[gosaints]

Odd looking radar composite 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/crefmw.png

Dry air?

[Madtown]

Fizzle fizzle fizzle into a turd.

[Geos]

Total snowfall, including secondary defo band.

 

 

[Money]

It's gonna be interesting to see which model does the best with this with regards to the track of the low and snowfall amounts. 

 

NAM still on the northern end of things. 

[NEJeremy]

Looks better for eastern Nebraska at least!

[gosaints]

RGEM at hour 24

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_024.png

[Money]

RGEM at hour 24

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_024.png

 

 

South compared to 18z. 

 

Almost brings snow to Milwaukee/Geos at HR 18

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_018.png

[gosaints]

Low rides the Iowa border on the RGEM

[Money]

Low rides the Iowa border on the RGEM

 

Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. 

[gosaints]

Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. 

I was just stating that low rides the Iowa border

[Geos]

Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. 

 

About 25 miles north of here still.

 

Front crossing the NW Tollway/90 very shortly.

[Madtown]

Wife wants to know what time this is going to start tomorrow...icy crap. She's out in Dodgeville west of Madison by about 45 mi.

[gabel23]

Total snowfall, including secondary defo band.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.png

Nice southeast trend, looks like backside defo band drops some heavy rates. I'm in the running for 6" if that trend continues, that would make it 3-3 with this wave according to the LRC! Can't wait to see what this version brings in may!!

[Geos]

Wife wants to know what time this is going to start tomorrow...icy crap. She's out in Dodgeville west of Madison by about 45 mi.

 

Looks like about 7pm off the 4km NAM. I'd say an error of an hour though.

[Madtown]

Thanks!

[Geos]

Already 37° in Milwaukee. About 40° at MSN, which is two hours ahead of schedule (HRRR). 

[Madtown]

Calm before the storm in here

[Geos]

RGEM is like 6° too warm with temps around here initially...

 

Front gets pretty far south.

 

[Madtown]

FXUS63 KMKX 230306 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT CHARGED DOWN THE LAKE WITH THE FINE LINE ON THE MKX 88-D SHOWING A CONTINUED SWLY MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AS HI- RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATING DRY AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME UNTIL STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TOWARD 12Z WED. AND AFTER. STILL LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN TO START...GOING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTH BY MID-MORNING. LOOKING AT A DPROG/DT OF 18Z TUE AND 00Z WED NAM...IT SHOWS NO CHANGE AT 00Z THU AND 06Z THU WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...BUT IS A BIT SLOWER BY 12Z THU AND BIT FARTHER SOUTH AT 18Z THU...THOUGH THICKNESS PATTERN IS THE SAME. NO CHANGE TO GOING HEADLINES FOR NOW.

[Money]

GFS back north with a max snowfall of 27 right around gosaints area 

[gosaints]

Nice the see the nam and gfs are on the.same page regarding qpf!!!

[Money]

Nice the see the nam and gfs are on the.same page regarding qpf!!!

 

NAM with 1.0 QPF for you and GFS with 2.1 lol and we are within 36-42 hours of the event.

 

Went from 11 on 18z GFS to 2 on the 0z. Stupid models. 

[gosaints]

NAM with 1.0 QPF for you and GFS with 2.1 lol and we are within 36-42 hours of the event.

 

Went from 11 on 18z GFS to 2 on the 0z. Stupid models.

This really is a dumb hobby

[Money]

Now GFS shows a secondary defo band after the low passes and gives Milwaukee nearly 5 inches of snow lol

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f048/6hkucherasnowmw.png

 

 

Total:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

1 1/2 days away from the event:

 

NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f54/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f054/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

Pretty close eh?

[Madtown]

Lol should go back in time...do away with this hypersensitive forecasting and forecast snow, rain or both. Make people become aware of what's going on around them. When there is 5" on the ground think about going home, when there is 7. Time to get going.

[Snowshoe]

Green Bay

 

UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

 

NEW NAM SIMILAR IN KEEPING LEAD BAND OF PCPN S OF THE AREA

OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOWS

ACRS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO HAS THE SHARP

CUT-OFF ON THE FLANK OF THE SYSTEM THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR

SOME TIME. ONE ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE

PCPN/STRONGER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS

LESS LIKELY.

 

MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WE MAY NEED TO BACK DOWN A BIT ON

SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL ON THAT

AFTER SEEING THE ENTIRE 00Z DATA SET. WL ALSO LEAVE IT TO THE MID-

SHIFT TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO TAKE THE REMAINING WATCH TO A

WARNING OR AN ADVISORY.

[Geos]

1 1/2 days away from the event:

 

NAM:

 

 

 

GFS:

 

 

 

Pretty close eh?

 

Hoping the reel that in here in the end.

Close

 

Front almost to Hyde Park now. 38° here now. 

[gosaints]

Money gonna like the ggem

[Money]

Money gonna like the ggem

 

Seems north of 12z, no?

[gosaints]

Seems north of 12z, no?

You do pretty good on the fronto I think. Just loaded further maybe just north of you precip more west east based than gfs or nam

[Geos]

Snow is farther south into the Milwaukee metro on the GEM in the evening.

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160323/00Z/f039/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

2+ QPF on GGEM for areas just like GFS.

 

Odd seeing NAM the lowest QPF wise..

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160323/00Z/f039/accqpfmw.png

[Geos]

I think the GEM is running too warm in eastern WI. Warmest of all of models.