April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

You should be apologizing for stealing our rain!

My family down here does feel like I brought the Seattle weather to them.

 

There's a chance of rain down here every day through next Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

My family down here does feel like I brought the Seattle weather to them.

 

There's a chance of rain down here every day through next Tuesday.

 

 

Tell them that its physically impossible to move weather systems that far away.   At least with current technology.  

[Phil]

OMG... so what are the analogs today??

First, looks like you need to get your facts straight yet again regarding both 1988 and 1995.

 

Here's J/A/S 1995, near-surface temperatures on the 1981-2010 baseline:

 

 

Here's J/A/S 1988, near-surface temperatures on the 1981-2010 baseline:

 

[Phil]

OMG... so what are the analogs today??

I can include 1995 if I include all analogs that meet at least 3/4ths of my requirements. In this case, I get 1881, 1889, 1936, 1942, 1946, 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1995, with 1998 being borderline.

 

Even warmer years in that set (1889, 1942) were either just a few hundred miles off in wave orientation, or flipped 3-5 weeks later than the majority of the aggregate.

 

Compiling them in the trimonthly groups of A/M/J and J/A/S, we get the following results in 500mb geopotential heights, 850mb temperature anomalies, and near-surface temperature anomalies:

 

April/May/June: 500mbH, 850mbT/a, near-sfcT/a:

 

 

July/August/September: 500mbH, 850mbT/a, near-sfcT/a:

 

 

So, a fairly strong result here. Even if I add in 1998, which I don't like as an analog, the signal doesn't change substantially.

[Deweydog]

Dewey thinks it can, and he basically controls our weather!

Common sense is a powerful but scarce resource.

[Jesse]

Common sense is a powerful but scarce resource.

So common sense dictates that we will have a third consecutive record warm summer?

[Deweydog]

So common sense dictates that we will have a third consecutive record warm summer?

No... Common sense tells us it's possible but not likely.

[Jesse]

No... Common sense tells us it's possible but not likely.

Hogwash!

[Jesse]

84 at PDX. Getting historic out there.

[Deweydog]

84 at PDX. Getting historic out there.

I thought there was no way PDX sees 85-90?

 

Historic AND impossible to predict!

[Abbotsford_wx]

77 up here so far. The record is 79.

[Jesse]

I thought there was no way PDX sees 85-90?

 

Historic AND impossible to predict!

They haven't hit 85 yet....

 

And I wouldn't talk too big of game, considering I'm beating you pretty handily in the contest so far.

[Front Ranger]

In many ways... that is the best of both worlds.   Early summer tends to be cool and later summer tends to be hot.    So we could end up with a long, wonderfully warm summer without extreme heat with your forecast verifying.

 

That being said... almost every year I look at seems to have a considerably wet and cloudy June.    So I expect that will likely be the case this year.

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this September is cloudier/wetter/colder than June. 

[TT-SEA]

First, looks like you need to get your facts straight yet again regarding both 1988 and 1995.

 

Here's J/A/S 1995, near-surface temperatures on the 1981-2010 baseline:

 

image.png

 

Here's J/A/S 1988, near-surface temperatures on the 1981-2010 baseline:

 

image.png

 

 

Phil... answer this question with no maps.   Look up the actual readings if necessary.   Please!    

 

Was July and September of 1995 significantly above normal in western WA and NW OR?

 

 

The ACTUAL answer based on what ACTUALLY happened is YES.     Its like you are posting a map of today and saying its not above normal here right now.   The problem is that we all know it is above normal here.   

 

Every major station in our area was significantly above normal in July and September of 1995.    There is no debate on this... its actually what happened.   

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this September is cloudier/wetter/colder than June. 

 

I think exactly the opposite based on all the Nino to Nina years that I have looked at since 1877.    June is more likely to be wet and cloudy overall.... September is more likely to be warmer and more sunny.

[TT-SEA]

I can include 1995 if I include all analogs that meet at least 3/4ths of my requirements. In this case, I get 1881, 1889, 1936, 1942, 1946, 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1995, with 1998 being borderline.

 

Even warmer years in that set (1889, 1942) were either just a few hundred miles off in wave orientation, or flipped 3-5 weeks later than the majority of the aggregate.

 

Compiling them in the trimonthly groups of A/M/J and J/A/S, we get the following results in 500mb geopotential heights, 850mb temperature anomalies, and near-surface temperature anomalies:

 

April/May/June: 500mbH, 850mbT/a, near-sfcT/a:

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

 

July/August/September: 500mbH, 850mbT/a, near-sfcT/a:

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

 

So, a fairly strong result here. Even if I add in 1998, which I don't like as an analog, the signal doesn't change substantially.

 

Also... blending many years does not mean that this year will follow the average of all those years combined.     

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS was onto something... SEA went from 73 down to 72 in the last hour.

 

For days it has been showing strangely cooler conditions at SEA.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this September is cloudier/wetter/colder than June.

Blasphemer! Did you even think of the fall ball before you said this?

[Jesse]

PDX at 85 right now and still going to get hotter! I was the first one to call temps 85-90 for today.

Still at 84 as far as I can tell:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=pdx&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

Didn't you also call for three straight days in the 80s?

[Phil]

In many ways... that is the best of both worlds. Early summer tends to be cool and later summer tends to be hot. So we could end up with a long, wonderfully warm summer without extreme heat with your forecast verifying.

 

That being said... almost every year I look at seems to have a considerably wet and cloudy June. So I expect that will likely be the case this year.

That could very well be the case. I don't know how the local cloudiness/rainfall tendencies work there. I'm just looking at temperature anomalies and the large scale circulation patterns that drive them.

[Front Ranger]

84 at PDX. Getting historic out there.

 

Somewhat. Vancouver has hit 80 as early as 3/9 and hit 89 on 4/12.

 

Downtown Portland hit 83 on 3/28/30 and 4/5/66.

 

OLM, that always reliable bastion of weather sanity, is sitting at 76. Will need to hit 80 to beat out 2004 for its earliest 80+ on record.

[Phil]

Phil... answer this question with no maps. Look up the actual readings if necessary. Please!

 

Was July and September of 1995 significantly above normal in western WA and NW OR?

 

 

The ACTUAL answer based on what ACTUALLY happened is YES. Its like you are posting a map of today and saying its not above normal here right now. The problem is that we all know it is above normal here.

 

Every major station in our area was significantly above normal in July and September of 1995. There is no debate on this... its actually what happened.

The July/August/September aggregate finished below average, though. That's the point I'm making, and honestly, using high resolution temperature maps is most demonstrative way for me to convey this reality to you.

[Front Ranger]

I think exactly the opposite based on all the Nino to Nina years that I have looked at since 1877.    June is more likely to be wet and cloudy overall.... September is more likely to be warmer and more sunny.

 

In general, Septembers where -ENSO is setting in tend to be wetter/cooler.

 

Plus, you're arguing for persistence from recent conditions. June is closer to recent conditions than September.

[Phil]

Also... blending many years does not mean that this year will follow the average of all those years combined.

All of them (except one) finished colder than average during the July/August/September trimonthly. That doesn't mean each individual month was below average, but that the three months, when averaged together, were below average overall.

[Deweydog]

Blasphemer! Did you even think of the fall ball before you said this?

I am very worried. Light jacket usage may increase 15-20%.

[Deweydog]

They haven't hit 85 yet....

 

And I wouldn't talk too big of game, considering I'm beating you pretty handily in the contest so far.

My forecast was an ode to the Canadian and Tim and Alan Thicke's honor. It was based entirely upon it. It said no way to no way proclamations.

[TT-SEA]

In general, Septembers where -ENSO is setting in tend to be wetter/cooler.

 

Plus, you're arguing for persistence from recent conditions. June is closer to recent conditions than September.

I will go back to my list. I remember two things stood out the most in Nino to Nina years.... it seemed to rain quite a bit in late May and June and September was close to (or in a few cases was) the nicest month of the warm season.

[Farmboy]

I got a question for the weather geniuses here.  What is the likelihood of the pacific northwest seeing another beautiful/warm stint of 70+ days this month?  Likely or unlikely...? 

[Deweydog]

I got a question for the weather geniuses here. What is the likelihood of the pacific northwest seeing another beautiful/warm stint of 70+ days this month? Likely or unlikely...?

44.4%.

[Jesse]

My forecast was an ode to the Canadian and Tim and Alan Thicke's honor. It was based entirely upon it. It said no way to no way proclamations.

I don't get it. :/

[Deweydog]

I don't get it. :/

It, along with other models prior to it, said mid 80's today were really likely. No way to no way, at least from an objective forecasting perspective.

[Jesse]

I will go back to my list. I remember two things stood out the most in Nino to Nina years.... it seemed to rain quite a bit in late May and June and September was close to (or in a few cases was) the nicest month of the warm season.

"Nice" and warmer than average don't always go hand in hand. You and I both seem to agree September 1983 was pretty nice. That month was 2-3 degrees below average down here.

[Jesse]

It, along with other models prior to it, said mid 80's today were really likely. No way to no way, at least from an objective forecasting perspective.

Yesterday was a pretty bad bust, though. I think you had PDX close to 80. I had a feeling things would be slow to fully mix out, especially with the chilly start.

 

Also, I had 83 today. I was going for mid-80s as well. As it stands it looks like they could just kiss 85.

[Deweydog]

I saw PDX hit 85 just after 3pm on my App. Everybody's forecast busted yesterday because of the high cirrus clouds. You called for 75-80 and you missed it too.

Cirrus didn't hold things back. Things just didn't mix out quite as well as some thought they would. NWS highlighted it pretty well.

[Jesse]

I saw PDX hit 85 just after 3pm on my App. Everybody's forecast busted yesterday because of the high cirrus clouds. You called for 75-80 and you missed it too.

What are you talking about? I called for 76, and they had an official high of 74 yesterday. I was pretty close. Too warm if anything.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

[Deweydog]

Yesterday was a pretty bad bust, though. I think you had PDX close to 80. I had a feeling things would be slow to fully mix out, especially with the chilly start.

 

Also, I had 83 today. I was going for mid-80s as well. As it stands it looks like they could just kiss 85.

So the no way stuff was just knee jerk?

 

It happens...

[TT-SEA]

"Nice" and warmer than average don't always go hand in hand. You and I both seem to agree September 1983 was pretty nice. That month was 2-3 degrees below average down here.

 

 

I am not talking about 1983.   

[Jesse]

So the no way stuff was just knee jerk?

 

It happens...

I was close to being correct. And overall I have been righter than you for the last few days. Don't spin it the other way, Mr. Lawyer.

 

I guess when I think 85 to 90 I don't think greater than or equal to. 85 to 90 means like 86-88. Not 85. Although that is purely semantic I suppose.

[Deweydog]

I was close to being correct. And overall I have been righter than you for the last few days. Don't spin it the other way, Mr. Lawyer.

 

I guess when I think 85 to 90 I don't think greater than or equal to. 85 to 90 means like 86-88. Not 85. Although that is purely semantic I suppose.

No way.

[Jesse]

No way.

I don't know why we're sitting here fighting over second place when Blizzard clearly kicked all of our asses.