April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Let's turn this into a realistic discussion. Looking at representative analogs featuring summer transitions to La Niña under a +PDO, the analog aggregate of 1936, 1983, 1988, and 1995 looks like this:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I'm relaxed. Your methodology is very shaky and reeks of confirmation bias, though. Seems like a disservice to the scientific method to let that kind of thing slide. Especially when it is peddled with such confidence, almost as if summer already happened and it is fact.

 

 

Who cares?   I never claimed this to be scientific.   And even if you try to be purely scientific... nature still bites you in the a** as Phil pointed out yesterday.   

[TT-SEA]

Let's turn this into a realistic discussion. Looking at representative analogs featuring summer transitions to La Niña under a +PDO, the analog aggregate of 1936, 1983, 1988, and 1995 looks like this:

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

I really like 1936, 1988, and 1995.     

 

1983 was decent but I would not expect it to be that chilly this summer given how warm we have been running for so long.    Jesse agrees with this as well.  

[Jesse]

Who cares?   I never claimed this to be scientific.   And even if you try to be purely scientific... nature still bites you in the a** as Phil pointed out yesterday.   

 

Fair enough. I will remember this post next time you are jumping all over Jim's methodology.

[Phil]

By far, 1936 is the best match. The rest (1988, 1983, 1995) are all good large scale matches, though diverge in wave orientation to some degree, which is to be expected.

 

Here's 1936:

 

 

Here's 1983, 1988, and 1995:

 

[Phil]

Won't matter... we are in a new climate regime.

 

Some records at SEA from this time of year include 1987, 1992, 2004 which were warm summers.

 

PDX records include years like 1987. 1992, 2004, 2009, and 2013.

We can throw out all of those years. They're all either +ENSO and/or trending +QBO. In other words, polar opposite to this year.

 

They're good anti-logs, though, so you can incorporate them that way.

[TT-SEA]

By far, 1936 is the best match. The rest (1988, 1983, 1995) are all good large scale matches, though diverge in wave orientation to some degree, which is to be expected.

 

Here's 1936:

 

image.png

 

Here's 1983, 1988, and 1995:

 

image.png

 

 

Glad to hear that

 

1936 was a great summer here... an early start but then had the typical damp late May / early June period and then turned really nice into October.   No extreme heat... just consistently sunny and warm.

 

I just think the 1930s were a strange decade and might not ever be a good guide for forecasting.  

[TT-SEA]

We can throw out all of those years. They're all either +ENSO and/or trending +QBO. In other words, polar opposite to this year.

 

They're good anti-logs, though, so you can incorporate them that way.

 

 

Got it.    

 

At least there is no evidence that early April warmth leads to cold summers here.  

[Phil]

Let's find out, then.

 

We'll aggregate the summer Niña transition/+PDO analogs 1936/1983/1988/1995 into A/M/J and J/A/S monthly compilations.

 

Here's what we observe:

 

A/M/J:

 

 

J/A/S

 

[BLI snowman]

After Friday's warmth, the weather looks boring for the foreseeable future. Reminds me why April sucks. 

[Phil]

Also, I'm looking at a few additional ENSO analogs with the +IO/+PDO configuration (reflects proper AAM/H-Ws), most of which are in the 1930s/1940s. I'll probably end up with several additional analog years.

 

I've just recently come to comprehend the crucial nature of properly matching the underlying IO/IOD phase.

[TT-SEA]

After Friday's warmth, the weather looks boring for the foreseeable future. Reminds me why April sucks. 

 

Yeah... a lush green landscape with flowers blooming everywhere and blues skies and pleasant weather is a nightmare.   There is more to life than tracking rain events.  

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... a lush green landscape with flowers blooming everywhere and blues skies and pleasant weather is a nightmare.   There is more to life than tracking rain events.  

 

It's a rather incredible psychological and physical burden attempting to be as culturally refined as you.

 

I barely have the fortitude to even think about summer yet, let alone argue for days on end about it, LOL!

[TT-SEA]

It's a rather incredible psychological and physical burden attempting to be as culturally refined as you.

 

I barely have the fortitude to even think about summer yet, let alone argue for days on end about it, LOL!

 

 

Too bad for you.   I am going to sit inside in a dark room and pout for the next week because April sucks!  

[TT-SEA]

Pretty deep trough later next week... made some convection up here?

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-6Jq3fd.png

[BLI snowman]

Too bad for you.   I am going to sit inside in a dark room and pout for the next week because April sucks!  

 

An internet-less, week long dark room sabbatical might be just what the shrink ordered for you. 

[TT-SEA]

An internet-less, week long dark room sabbatical might be just what the shrink ordered for you.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS is strange... showing 69 at SEA tomorrow and 70 on Friday.

[Deweydog]

GFS MOS is strange... showing 69 at SEA tomorrow and 70 on Friday.

That's Celsius, not Fahrenheit.

[Jesse]

61 at PDX as of 1pm. Would take a rapid jump in temps the next few hours for them to crack 75.

 

Certainly possible with the warm airmass currently moving in, though. Just need to get some of that warmth to mix down. Early September sun angles working their magic for the time being!

[Front Ranger]

We went to Five Guys this evening and the fries were a little overcooked. Any thoughts on what this might mean for summer?

 

Five Guys started in Virginia. VA has very warm, humid summers...

[Jesse]

Nice day!

[TT-SEA]

Nice day!

 

 

75 is a tragic nightmare but 74 is a nice day?  

[Jesse]

75 is a tragic nightmare but 74 is a nice day?  

 

Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare?

[TT-SEA]

Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare?

 

I thought you were tracking 75 at PDX and at 5:01 p.m. when 74 became official you proclaimed it a nice day.  

[Jesse]

I thought you were tracking 75 at PDX and at 5:01 p.m. when 74 became official you proclaimed it a nice day.

I had actually just gotten back from a walk.

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 78 in Klamath Falls. I broke my record high of 77 set in 1996. I also was a few degrees above forecast temperature. If tomorrow performs similarly, I should achieve 82-84, and that would be another record.

 

 

Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare?

 

45 and drizzle is your favorite weather right? 

[GHweatherChris]

Peaked at 70 around 5:30, holding around that still, great evening. Tomorrow will be spectacular, looking forward to it after the turd of a winter we had.

[MossMan]

Nice evening!

[TT-SEA]

Light east wind here this morning and 61 already.    Nice morning.

[Jesse]

Light east wind here this morning and 61 already. Nice morning.

East winds gusting to 30mph or higher at Troutdale this morning, with a temp in the low 60s. Meanwhile PDX fell to 47 and VUO hit 43.

 

Will be interesting to see if the winds end up spreading across the Portland metro area today, and what affect they have on high temps, if any.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is way different for next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run. Much cooler and wetter.

[GHweatherChris]

12Z GFS is way different for next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run. Much cooler and wetter.

Why are you worried about next Tuesday?

[TT-SEA]

Why are you worried about next Tuesday?

Not worried at all... just brought it up to show objectivity to Jesse.

[Jesse]

Not worried at all... just brought it up to show objectivity to Jesse.

You should be objective because it is virtuous, not for the sole purpose of proving that you are to me.

[TT-SEA]

You should be objective because it is virtuous, not for the sole purpose of proving that you are to me.

 

 

I am trying to impress you!  

[GHweatherChris]

I am trying to impress you!

It's creepy.

[TT-SEA]

It's creepy.

 

 

Shut up... I am just joking around.   Stop taking it so seriously.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian actually agrees for the middle of next week...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

 

 

But the timing might be great for a nice weekend next week as well.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Jesse]

Shut up... I am just joking around. Stop taking it so seriously.

Hard not to after the turd of a winter we just had. >:C