April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

82 here.  

[Deweydog]

I don't know why we're sitting here fighting over second place when Blizzard clearly kicked all of our asses.

It was a good call, and he was first to it.

[Jesse]

It was a good call, and he was first to it.

Sometimes unrestrained hyperbole works out!

 

Score!!!

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes unrestrained hyperbole works out!

 

 

Rarely on the cold/snowy side though.   

[Jesse]

Rarely on the cold/snowy side though.

Someday your warm reign of terror will come to an end.

[Deweydog]

Sometimes unrestrained hyperbole works out!

 

Score!!!

On the warm side...

[Jesse]

On the warm side...

To be expected with a warming climate. Already been hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed.

[TT-SEA]

Someday your warm reign of terror will come to an end.

 

That was more of a poke at all of us who get too excited for prospects of cold/snow and then get burned.   

[TT-SEA]

To be expected with a warming climate. Already been hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed.

 

Exactly... a warming climate.    

[GHweatherChris]

83 degrees here, absolutely awesome day. Looks like the wind has shifted to wsw and are cooling already, should kick in here this evening. Perfect one day warm shot.

[Jesse]

Exactly... a warming climate.

For now....

[bainbridgekid]

Just noticed it's only 63 at BLI, though they did momentarily hit a high of 71.

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed it's only 63 at BLI, though they did momentarily hit a high of 71.

 

 

I saw there some stratus offshore there...must have been a sea breeze.

 

My mom texted me to say it was 76 at their house.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SLE hit 86, making this easily their warmest day prior to 4/11 on record.

 

Historic event for the Willamette Valley, at least.

[Front Ranger]

I saw there some stratus offshore there...must have been a sea breeze.

 

My mom texted me to say it was 76 at their house.  

 

Tell her to put her thermometer in the shade. Politely, since it's your mom.

[Bham_Guy]

Just noticed it's only 63 at BLI, though they did momentarily hit a high of 71.

 

There was a decent northerly breeze until about 1:00, but it didn't produce much down slope warming.

[TT-SEA]

Tell her to put her thermometer in the shade. Politely, since it's your mom.

They are more inland and it's always in the shade. In fact it seems to run cool most of the time.

[Jesse]

I mistook you for another poster. You were right Wednesday and I was wrong. Today it seems like we will both be right because PDX hit 85 and you called for 80-85 and I called for 85-90. Tomorrow you will be wrong however because you called for 70s and I called for 80s if it reaches 80+, which you said wouldn't happen. So in the end it all evens out.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPDX.html

Except tomorrow hasn't happened yet. Back to back 80+ is a pretty tough feat for this early. Especially considering we lose the offshore flow component tomorrow.

 

Good point that I was also right, predicting 80-85. There goes Matt's argument.

[Jesse]

Kelso Airport hit 90 today! I called it!

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KKLS.html

That's extremely impressive.

[Deweydog]

That's extremely impressive.

No way.

 

Ice burn!

 

Nice day!

[James Jones]

Earliest 85 in PDX history by 19 days today (old record was 86 on 4/26/04). Earliest in Portland history too, downtown's earliest was 87 on 4/12/1904.

[Jesse]

No way.

 

Ice burn!

 

Nice day!

I never made a forecast for Kelso. I have no clue what goes on there. I won't rule out the chance that their mid-afternoon heating *may* have been helped along by an exploding meth lab nearby, though.

[BLI snowman]

Today a preview of things to come after a cool May.

[Jesse]

Preview of things to come after a cool May.

Troll says what?

 

Our record cool October last year sure worked out.

[Jesse]

Historic day.

[BLI snowman]

Troll says what?

 

Our record cool October last year sure worked out.

Refreshing the forum every 30 seconds for warm-summer prognostications I see.

 

You'll just feel that much hotter today when you let yourself get all worked up!

[Deweydog]

I never made a forecast for Kelso. I have no clue what goes on there. I won't rule out the chance that their mid-afternoon heating *may* have been helped along by an exploding meth lab nearby, though.

85-90 for the area was the way to go. As it stands, PDX was mitigated a bit by a little stronger than anticipated offshore flow. Models a couple days ago were more in line with a perfect storm of gradients dying in the afternoon.

 

The stronger gradients help Kelso in particular, characterized by the light southerlies they occasionally pick up on days like this.

[Jesse]

85-90 for the area was the way to go. As it stands, PDX was mitigated a bit by a little stronger than anticipated offshore flow. Models a couple days ago were more in line with a perfect storm of gradients dying in the afternoon.

 

The stronger gradients help Kelso in particular, characterized by the light southerlies they occasionally pick up on days like this.

Yup, Kelso was definitely in a sweet spot.

 

Super historic reading.

[Jesse]

I miss Dmitri. He would always do great write-ups of events like this.

[TT-SEA]

Lets go with a favorable blend of 1878, 1889, 1906, 1926, 1931, 1936, 1942, 1958, 1995, 1998.  

 

All of these years were coming off a strong Nino and transitioning to cold neutral or Nina.     That is the majority of such years.

 

And all of them had spectacular summers here.

 

1889, 1926, 1931, and 1958 were off-the-charts warm and sunny.

[GHweatherChris]

I am gonna go with 2016 as an analog for this summer.

[Jesse]

I am gonna go with 2016 as an analog for this summer.

Good one!

[Timmy Supercell]

81 / 35 in Klamath Falls today. It actually was quite breezy the whole afternoon. It was especially nice over by Lake Ewauna with estimated 15-20 mph winds. It felt like 72-74 outside during the peak because of that.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if it's just a coincidence the word analog starts with anal.

[bainbridgekid]

Easily the earliest ever +20c 850mb sounding for SLE this morning.

 

Unless I'm reading it wrong, looks like the previous earliest +20c was early May.

 

 

Also pretty interesting that the average 850mb temp is no higher in early April than in January.

[GHweatherChris]

I wonder if it's just a coincidence the word analog starts with anal.

No coincidence, anal goes with anal retentive, which describes most of us on this forum sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

Topped out at 82 here.  Pretty impressive for this early.

[snow_wizard]

"Nice" and warmer than average don't always go hand in hand. You and I both seem to agree September 1983 was pretty nice. That month was 2-3 degrees below average down here.

 

Sept 1983 had the coldest low temps I've ever witnessed in that month.  It dropped to 31 with heavy frost on one day.

[snow_wizard]

Someday your warm reign of terror will come to an end.

 

No question whatsoever the coming few years will be much cooler than the last 2.  Really easy call.

[snow_wizard]

 

 

Also pretty interesting that the average 850mb temp is no higher in early April than in January.

 

Goes to show how utterly lame January has been the past 30 years or so.