The "Dewey's Second Chance" Post Tax-Day Scorchin' April Nicewave Contest! ~ Part Deux (y)

[Phil]

Clearly rigged.

 

Like I said, I am going to put together winners for SEA, PDX and overall once all of the numbers are in.

What about grouping winners into SEA, PDX, and those who did both SEA/PDX? Might reduce the number of conspiracy theories.

[Jesse]

What about grouping it into SEA, PDX, and those who did both?

 

That's what I said.

[Phil]

That's what I said.

Ah, gotcha.

 

I thought you were including the PDX-only group in the overall group (SEA/PDX).

[TT-SEA]

PDX just jumped to 85... further crushing some forecasts.

 

Matt's 70 at PDX today is going to cost him the win on the last day.   He Spieth-ed it.  

[Deweydog]

PDX just jumped to 85... further crushing some forecasts.

 

Matt's 70 at PDX today is going to cost him the win on the last day. He Spieth-ed it.

It's your fault, you told me to go cold for Tuesday.

 

Like Jordan's caddy telling him to club down on #12.

[bainbridgekid]

PDX just jumped to 85... further crushing some forecasts.

 

Matt's 70 at PDX today is going to cost him the win on the last day.   He Spieth-ed it.  

It could hit 200 degrees and it would hurt everyone's forecasts equally since we were all too cool today.

[Jesse]

It could hit 200 degrees and it would hurt everyone's forecasts equally since we were all too cool today.

Don't get his hopes up!

 

Yeah, once it got above 79 at PDX it didn't really matter. I think that was the highest anyone went for PDX today.

[Phil]

Don't get his hopes up!

 

Yeah, once it got above 79 at PDX it didn't really matter. I think that was the highest anyone went for PDX today.

Hey, I went 80 @ PDX. Still a massive bust though.

 

I noticed the ECMWF/EPS/NAEFS were trending positive with the offshore trough (hence later with the height falls) before I put in my my final guess, but I wasn't sure whether the trend would continue given what looked like a semi-mishandling of the initial poleward propagation of the lead anticyclone. I wish I'd caught on earlier.

[Front Ranger]

Not true. Mark only forecast for PDX and has missed by over 20 points so far...

 

He's an anomaly.

 

Is it just me, or do we use that word a lot around here?

[Jesse]

He's an anomaly.

 

Is it just me, or do we use that word a lot around here?

I'll agree with you that we do as long as you don't post a corny gif.

[Front Ranger]

I'll agree with you that we do as long as you don't post a corny gif.

 

<_>

 

I'll agree to that as long as you post only what I want you to post.

[Jesse]

<_>

 

I'll agree to that as long as you post only what I want you to post.

Alright, no more thoughtful discussion on the realities of global warming it is.

[Front Ranger]

Alright, no more thoughtful discussion on the realities of global warming it is.

 

via GIPHY

[Deweydog]

Just imagine if I'd blown today by 19 degrees the other way!

 

Heaven!!!

[Phil]

So..final numbers?

[Jesse]

So..final numbers?

Sorry, been a busy day. By late tonight or tomorrow morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Sorry, been a busy day. By late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Like tomorrow tomorrow morning.

[Phil]

Like tomorrow tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow morning this time next year.

[Jesse]

Final Contest Numbers:

 

Overall Ranking-

 

Jesse: 24

 

Phil: 24.5

 

Dewey: 27

 

James Jones: 30

 

Tim: 30.5

 

Mark Nelsen: 32

 

Shawnigan: 32.5

 

Flatiron: 35

 

Bainbridge: 35.5

 

Justin: 38.5

[Jesse]

Ranking for PDX forecasts:

 

Phil: 23

 

Jesse: 24

 

Dewey: 27

 

Shawnigan: 27

 

Tim: 27

 

James Jones: 30

 

Mark Nelsen: 32

 

Bainbridge: 34

 

Justin: 35

 

Flatiron: 36

[Jesse]

Ranking for SEA forecasts:

 

Phil: 26

 

Flatiron: 34

 

Tim: 34

 

Bainbridge: 37

 

Shawnigan: 39

 

Justin: 42

[TT-SEA]

How does Phil win both SEA and PDX and lose overall?

 

Good job Phil and Jesse!

[Jesse]

 

Law of averages.

[Jesse]

How does Phil win both SEA and PDX and lose overall?

 

Good job Phil and Jesse!

 

23 + 26 = 49

 

49/2 = 24.5

 

24

[Phil]

Congrats Jesse, looks like you're batting 1.000 on the year.

 

This was an awesome learning experience for me, being unfamiliar with these observation sites and their microclimactic tendencies. Definitely will come away a better forecaster at both locations.

[Jesse]

Congrats Jesse, looks like you're batting 1.000 on the year.

 

This was an awesome learning experience for me, being unfamiliar with these observation sites and their microclimactic tendencies. Definitely will come away a better forecaster at both locations.

 

Thanks.

 

You did great considering you are not even familiar with the region.

[Deweydog]

Thanks.

 

You did great considering you are not even familiar with the region.

Didn't he live at Stevens Pass or something?

[TT-SEA]

23 + 26 = 49

 

49/2 = 24.5

 

24

 

 

Despite the math... its hard not to say Phil was the winner by winning both locations.    He beat you for PDX by 1 point and beat everyone else who did a forecast for SEA.   

 

Tough to judge because we did not all play the same game.   But Phil was 2-0 which is better than 1-0.

[Phil]

How does Phil win both SEA and PDX and lose overall?

 

Good job Phil and Jesse!

Thanks man.

 

Just the way the math works out. I think Jesse is correct in that there's no other mathematically plausible way to combine the two scores (outside higher level math that's completely unnecessary for this sort of thing).

[Phil]

Didn't he live at Stevens Pass or something?

Half of my extended family currently lives in Everett, WA. Does that count?

[Jesse]

Despite the math... its hard not to say Phil was the winner by winning both locations.    He beat you for PDX by 1 point and beat everyone else who did a forecast for SEA.   

 

Tough to judge because we did not all play the same game.   But Phil was 2-0 which is better than 1-0.

 

You're right. This is an outrage.

[Phil]

You're right. This is an outrage.

Yeah, I'm suing.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I'm suing.

 

It seems pretty straightforward to me. You won the forecasts for SEA PDX and I won the composite. So you won 2/3.

 

Tim is just mad at me lately because it's going to start raining again.

[Deweydog]

Half of my extended family currently lives in Everett, WA. Does that count?

I'm 1/64th Sioux Indian.

 

Several strongly-worded letters written and I'm still not getting any royalties for Dances With Wolves.

[TT-SEA]

You're right. This is an outrage.

 

 

I say next time we all forecast for the same locations.    This is far too important to mess around with loose rules. 

[ShawniganLake]

The overall winner could have been reserved for people who forecasted for both locales.

[Phil]

It seems pretty straightforward to me. You won the forecasts for SEA PDX and I won the composite. So you won 2/3.

 

Tim is just mad at me lately because it's going to start raining again.

Haha.

 

You won, dude. The rules were straightforward from the start.

[TT-SEA]

It seems pretty straightforward to me. You won the forecasts for SEA PDX and I won the composite. So you won 2/3.

 

Tim is just mad at me lately because it's going to start raining again.

 

 

Garden needs some rain.   

 

Most of Saturday looks decent.   Good compromise.  

[ShawniganLake]

Thanks for the time you put into this Jesse.

[Deweydog]

This is Roger Maris all over again.

 

You can Google Roger Maris, Jesse.