2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

DominicR · February 19, 2014

Dominick, I think a front end snow is very possible. Not saying we are going to get crushed or anything like that with the system itself.

That always overdone. I bet will get nothing in terms of snow over here but maybe a quick burst in the end. Will need a decent shift but it does look quite close.

East Dubzz · February 19, 2014

Geos, 4k NAM looks kind of interesting for you as well.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

Instantweathermaps snowfall map for NAM looks a bit weird but think all of central IA/E IA look good for 4-9 inches except far eastern tip. Heaviest prob up in N WI.

Tom · February 19, 2014

Money, I was just thinking of that...can we ask for 3/3??? Wouldn't that be a head scratcher for all the mets and NWS offices in our region.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

LOT met on other board:

New NAM run rolling out arguably has a stronger dynamic cooling signal than the 18z run over northern IL and southern WI.

Geos · February 19, 2014

I agree with Dominic.

6" on the front end isn't going to happen. If today was any indication, the WAA in the mid levels will torch. Predominately rain this far east.

Sounding near Lake Geneva. A very marginal situation.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

Because of very strong dynamic cooling intial slug near WI border north towards MKE brings a very impressive burst of snows.

Money · February 19, 2014

Bufkit for MKE

140220/1100Z 35 15010KT 29.0F SNPL 10:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.022 10:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.02 72| 26| 2
140220/1200Z 36 13009KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 10:1| 1.7|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140220/1300Z 37 11010KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.236 13:1| 5.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
140220/1400Z 38 10011KT 31.9F SNOW 5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 10:1| 6.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.64 100| 0| 0
140220/1500Z 39 09016KT 31.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 9:1| 7.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0
140220/1600Z 40 08017KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.050 9:1| 7.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.83 0| 0|100
140220/1700Z 41 08017KT 31.5F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.05|| 0.84 4| 96| 0
140220/1800Z 42 09018KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.06|| 0.85 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140220/1900Z 43 09017KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.07|| 0.86 0| 0|100
140220/2000Z 44 11016KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.005 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.87 0| 0|100
140220/2100Z 45 11014KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.87 0| 0|100
140220/2200Z 46 10015KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.89 0| 0|100
140220/2300Z 47 11017KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.94 0| 0|100
140221/0000Z 48 12017KT 33.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.03 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140221/0100Z 49 16014KT 34.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.08 0| 0|100
140221/0200Z 50 23021KT 34.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0|100
140221/0300Z 51 24024KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0
140221/0400Z 52 24023KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0
140221/0500Z 53 24024KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0
140221/0600Z 54 24025KT 31.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 7.3|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140221/0700Z 55 24026KT 30.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.5|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.11 100| 0| 0
140221/0800Z 56 24028KT 30.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 7.7|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
140221/0900Z 57 25029KT 29.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 7.8|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.14 100| 0| 0
140221/1000Z 58 25029KT 27.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.15 100| 0| 0
140221/1100Z 59 25028KT 25.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.16 100| 0| 0
140221/1200Z 60 25028KT 23.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.16 100| 0| 0

ORD

140220/1200Z 36 09010KT 30.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.052 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.05 1| 99| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140220/1300Z 37 06008KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.289 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140220/1400Z 38 04011KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.261 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100
140220/1500Z 39 07012KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100
140220/1600Z 40 08011KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100
140220/1700Z 41 09008KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0| 0
140220/1800Z 42 10007KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140220/1900Z 43 11007KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.72 0| 0|100
140220/2000Z 44 12006KT 33.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.72 0| 0| 0
140220/2100Z 45 12006KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.73 0| 0|100
140220/2200Z 46 12008KT 34.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100
140220/2300Z 47 14010KT 38.7F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.76 0| 0|100
140221/0000Z 48 18016KT 44.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.79 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140221/0100Z 49 22019KT 41.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.81 0| 0|100
140221/0200Z 50 23020KT 35.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.82 0| 0|100
140221/0300Z 51 23021KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.82 0| 0|100
140221/0400Z 52 23021KT 32.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
140221/0500Z 53 24022KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0
140221/0600Z 54 24023KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 0.2|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140221/0700Z 55 24024KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 0.3|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0
140221/0800Z 56 24023KT 31.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0
140221/0900Z 57 24022KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0

DominicR · February 19, 2014

it's gonna be quick but a solid 6-8hr period of mod-heavy snow where it sets up. Really liking Des Moine/Cedar Rapids/La Cross and into far northern WI at this point.

East Dubzz · February 19, 2014

it's gonna be quick but a solid 6-8hr period of mod-heavy snow where it sets up. Really liking Des Moine/Cedar Rapids/La Cross and into far northern WI at this point.

Cedar Rapids likely won't get in on much of the snow either.

Cobb data from the 00z NAM just have me 7.2" of snow. That's a joke. Laughable, actually.

Geos · February 19, 2014

Sounding at Chicago at the same time for reference.

Iowawx · February 19, 2014

Any thoughts on the 00Z GFS??

Tom · February 19, 2014

00z RGEM...keeps heavy rains south and takes SLP right over NE IL...about a 50-75 mile shift from its earlier 18z/12z runs today...things are going to get interesting by tomorrows 12z runs.

Money · February 19, 2014

GFS is way NW lol. Takes the low over me.

Money · February 19, 2014

So we got NAM/RGEM showing farther SE tracks taking the low into MKE/NE IL while the 0z GFS is farther NW and takes the low about 70-80 miles farther NW than those two.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

00z RGEM...keeps heavy rains south and takes SLP right over NE IL...about a 50-75 mile shift from its earlier 18z/12z runs today...things are going to get interesting by tomorrows 12z runs.

Not here maybe as far east as SW WI/NW IL.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

So we got NAM/RGEM showing farther SE tracks taking the low into MKE/NE IL while the 0z GFS is farther NW and takes the low about 70-80 miles farther NW than those two.

NAM does pretty well in these situations.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

This run on crack. MKE lol. 8 inches.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

May not end as far east as DBQ but Cedar Rapids/Waterloo look to be pretty close. DSM good spot right now into far SE MN and NW WI.

Money · February 19, 2014

What do you think about here in E/C WI? I'm about 60-70 miles NW of MKE.

East Dubzz · February 19, 2014

May not end as far east as DBQ but Cedar Rapids/Waterloo look to be pretty close. DSM good spot right now into far SE MN and NW WI.

Waterloo will be fine, should see some decent snow unless the GFS wins. Cedar Rapids looking at more rain likely, similar to Dubuque.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

What do you think about here in E/C WI? I'm about 60-70 miles NW of MKE.

It's going to be close. Heaviest obviously to NW but not to far away so several inches still a shot. Down by Madison-MKE def mostly rain right now.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

Waterloo will be fine, should see some decent snow unless the GFS wins. Cedar Rapids looking at more rain likely, similar to Dubuque.

Yeah they do seem fine. Good thing strong dynamics will come to play to help crush WAA quick.

Money · February 19, 2014

I'm more worried about freezing rain than snow. With a track to NE IL/MKE usually is good for here in terms of keeping the rain out etc.

DominicR · February 19, 2014

I'm more worried about freezing rain than snow. With a track to NE IL/MKE usually is good for here in terms of keeping the rain out etc.

I don't think it is going to be a big concern. Prehaps intially a start but the WAA will overcome it quick and as Geos said earlier ecp in the mid-levels.

Money · February 19, 2014

GGEM is showing the colder temps as well at hr 36. 850 mb line is probably a good 50-60 miles south and the low is a tad NE than 12z.

Geos · February 19, 2014

GFS

nd Futurecast

DominicR · February 19, 2014

GFS

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014021900/east/gfs_60hr_precip_east_11.pngnd Futurecast

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-20439200-1392783915.png

Ready to swim man?

Tom · February 19, 2014

Jerry Taft's forecast is from the 5pm news...it doesn't look like he updated his map.

Geos · February 19, 2014

Ready to swim man?

Haha - My sump pumps are already turning on every 15 minutes.

I feel bad for anyone that lives close to a river. Fox River, Illinois River...

Money · February 19, 2014

GGEM has precip starting as snow for S. WI as well. About 4-5 hours then it changes to rain in the MKE area.

RN/SN line is literally right over head here south to DBQ

Money · February 19, 2014

GB is mostly all snow. They get SN from HR 39 to HR 49 then it switches to rain as the low tracks overhead.

This is going to be a very tough call for the MKE office. A temp or two degree difference will mean everything in terms of precip etc

Tom · February 19, 2014

Brant Miller & Skilling both showed 4" or so near RFD...thinking they used the NAM model on that one. The accumulating snow band is creeping closer into NW IL and WI/IL border. If this tracks farther SE by 12z tomorrow, its going to be very close to what happened in Cycle 2 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen.

Tom · February 19, 2014

Wx Bell seriously needs to fix the problems they always have with the GGEM...gets pretty annoying

Iowawx · February 19, 2014

WX bell not loading the GGEM for me. What would it suggest for Cedar Rapids, Iowa?? Looks like its closer to the NAM and RGEM solutions.

Geos · February 19, 2014

0z GFS really sends the warm air slug far into WI. It's short, but intense.

Money · February 19, 2014

GB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
912 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-191100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU...
WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ
912 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

...A STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX TO ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND
A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM WILL TAKE A TRACK FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD CREATE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET AND RAIN FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO WAUSAUKEE...AND A PERIOD
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT SHIFT WILL
LEAD TO A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OBSERVED CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE FOX VALLEY TO THE LAKESHORE. BECAUSE GROUND TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY COLD...THE WINTRY MIX AND RAIN MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY OR
POSSIBLY ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A STEVENS POINT TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. THE
HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN AN INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THIS
COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.
STAYED TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

Money · February 19, 2014

MKE SWS

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL
BE INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA...MAKING IT A STORM TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOW PRESSURE TRACK TAKES IT FROM KANSAS CITY THURSDAY
MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW. COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL THEN CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. STRONG WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR AND LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG OUR VARIOUS MODEL SIMULATIONS FOR THE
TRACK OF THE STORM...RAISING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. A SHIFT TO
THE EAST WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
YOU MAY WANT TO REVIEW YOUR PLANS AND HAVE ALTERNATIVES AVAILABLE
IF NEEDED.

Sciascia · February 19, 2014

Might be OT, but I saw someone post that ORD lost 5" of snow today. If it's melting that rapidly, it's gonna probably be close to gone by the time the cold comes back.

Tom · February 19, 2014

No way, I just went out side and measured 12" in the same spot that has sun from the morning till 3pm. Lost 2" or so today.

EDIT: It actually compacted down overnight from 16" to 14.5"...then melted the rest today.

2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

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