July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Should have said "east of the cascades" and left it at that. Either way, just semantics.

 

The difference between hot and cold isn't just semantics.  

 

It's a way of life here.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows some very "chilly" air getting into the NE next week.   Very chilly almost down to DC.   I would call it almost an ice box over there.  Phil is going to be happy!

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-3Xzl9V.png

[Phil]

The difference between hot and cold isn't just semantics.

 

It's a way of life here.

Lol, marine climates and their large temperature swings ftw.

[Phil]

ECMWF shows some very "chilly" air getting into the NE next week. Very chilly almost down to DC. I would call it almost an ice box over there. Phil is going to be happy!

 

 

If 95F was *below average* here, then your analogy would apply.

 

Again, context. The 00z EPS actually had much of WA *below average* on d9. Got it?

[TT-SEA]

If 95F was *below average* here, then your analogy would apply.

 

Again, context. The 00z EPS actually had much of WA *below average* on d9.

 

 

Better way to say it... rather than saying chilly air into east central WA.      It won't be chilly by any stretch of the imagination there.

[James Jones]

If 95F was *below average* here, then your analogy would apply.

 

Again, context. The 00z EPS actually had much of WA *below average* on d9. Got it?

What maps showed that? This doesn't exactly scream below average:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016072100/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016072100/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

[Phil]

Better way to say... rather than saying chilly air into east central WA.      It won't be chilly by any stretch of the imagination there.

We've been over this crap already. Chilly, as in colder than the seasonal average. Obviously I don't think you'll be wearing sweaters and hoodies. Comprende?

[Phil]

What maps showed that? This doesn't exactly scream below average.

Dang, meant 00z ECMWF (operational). I'm just not clicking on all cylinders lately.

 

Obviously, NE flow/downsloping still dominating areas west of the Cascades:

 

[Phil]

I'm done debating the semantical nitpicking of posts describing clown range model runs. Idiotic.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Went back to check on accuracy.   Above image was from last Wednesday evening.   Actual highs through yesterday:

 

7/14 - 76  (4 degrees too cold)

7/15 - 76  (3 degrees too cold)

7/16 - 73  (2 degrees too warm)

7/17 - 79  (5 degrees too cold)

7/18 - 71  (1 degree too cold)

 

 

Its generally running too cold... the only exception was the stubborn marine layer day on Saturday.     Interestingly it was too cold by 4 degrees even for day 1.

 

 

Update on this:

 

7/19 - 77 (2 degrees too cold)

7/20 - 80 (4 degrees too cold)

7/21 - 82 (12 degrees too cold)   **so far**

 

 

Might be sort of close the next 2 days.

 

But 7 out of 8 days it was too cold.  

[Phil]

Uh, that run is 6+ days old + it was a cold outlier. Not to mention that SEA is skewing warm from all guidance, and most stations in the region.

[TT-SEA]

Dang, meant 00z ECMWF (operational). I'm just not clicking on all cylinders lately.

 

Obviously, NE flow/downsloping still dominating areas west of the Cascades:

 

image.png

 

 

I would say that changed on the 12Z run:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-AJxlCS.png

[Phil]

Gotta love urban contamination. Looks like a small section of the eastern sound averaging above normal. Everyone else below:

 

[TT-SEA]

Uh, that run is 6+ days old + it was a cold outlier. Not to mention that SEA is skewing warm from all guidance, and most stations in the region.

 

 

Yes... keep that in mind when saying Seattle will be cold.  

 

And that run was actually warmer than the previous run which is why we were discussing it back then.

 

If you want to talk about the 11-15 day period like its so obvious what will happen then its good to look back and see how it did previously.     We are looking ahead and its been running too cold all month for our region.   Remember those -7 and -10 departures for the half of the month?   More like 0 to -4 in that period with the coldest anomalies east of the mountains where variability is more extreme.

[Phil]

The departures I referenced were at 850mb, not the surface, doofus.

[Front Ranger]

I'm done debating the semantical nitpicking of posts describing clown range model runs. Idiotic.

 

Bookmarked.

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love urban contamination. Looks like a small section of the eastern sound averaging above normal. Everyone else below:

 

image.png

 

 

More like west versus east.     There is no urbanization on the SW WA coast.

 

Its been much more muted over here.    And the pattern has favored more sunshine between Seattle and Vancouver BC which is really why it has not been as cold in that area.   

[Phil]

Bookmarked.

I'll call out misinformation whenever I see it, though, if it's relevant to me.

 

Not going to put up with it. Doesn't mean I'll go back and requote all the "blowtorch July" posts with a bunch of smiley faces.

[TT-SEA]

The departures I referenced were at 850mb, not the surface, doofus.

 

 

No... the 850mb anomalies were more like -13C.

 

We were talking surface departures when you said -7 to -10 by the middle of the month.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z ECMWF has 850mb temperature anomalies easily surpassing -20F over the PNW in the long range. About -13C over OR, almost -30F. Wow.

 

 

Example.

[Phil]

No... the 850mb anomalies were more like -13C.

 

We were talking surface departures when you said -7 to -10 by the middle of the month.

This a load of bullcrap.

[Phil]

Example.

That was one run. I never said anything about -10F departures at the surface (especially in urban locations), nor would I forecast anything that outrageous.

 

Two can play at this game. You might want to give it rest.

[Phil]

I have a bunch of outrageously laughable posts from you, made back in April/May.

 

You probably don't want to continue this, trust me on this one.

[TT-SEA]

That was one run. I never said anything about -10F departures at the surface (especially in urban locations), nor would I forecast anything that outrageous.

 

 

You absolutely did say surface temps.   Based on model runs that excited you.  

 

I asked if you want to wager that the second half of July would be warmer at SEA compared to average than the first half of the month.      You said considering most of the region will be running -7 to -10 departures by the 10th that you would not take the wager.   But that there would be more "heavy troughing" later in the month.     

[TT-SEA]

I have a bunch of outrageously laughable posts from you back in April/May. You don't want to play this game, trust me.

 

 

I already said my ideas for summer were completely off track.    I am not denying saying that it would be a warm to hot summer and persistence would rule.    That was wrong!  

 

Ironically... persistence did NOT rule and its been a troughy summer and yet places in western WA and OR might still end up with a warm summer overall.   

 

SEA and BLI will be running solidly above normal for the first two months of the JJA period.  

[GobBluth]

Get a room guys.

[Deweydog]

Get a room guys.

I recommend somewhere in east/west central Washington. Beautiful country.

[Phil]

You absolutely did say surface temps. Based on model runs that excited you.

 

I asked if you want to wager that the second half of July would be warmer at SEA compared to average than the first half of the month. Ypu said considered most of the region will be running -7 to -10 departures by the 10th that you would not take the wager. But that there would be more "heavy troughing" later in the month.

 

No, you're just a delusional nutcase living in an alternate universe. If modeling was spitting out numbers like that, I wouldn't believe it for a second.

 

As for the monthly forecast, you've been all over the f**king place. You made a knee jerk forecast that happened to be correct after busting repeatedly for months on end. You're a wreck of a forecaster. A clueless, delusional wishcaster with no scientific integrity. Go screw yourself.

[TT-SEA]

If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one.

 

 

[Deweydog]

No, you're just a delusional nutcase living in an alternate universe. If modeling was spitting out numbers like that, I wouldn't believe it for a second.

 

As for the monthly forevast, you've been all over the place. You made a knee jerk forecast that happened to be correct after busting repeatedly for months on end. You're a wreck of a forecaster. A clueless, delusional wishcaster with no scientific integrity. Go scree yourself.

Unhinged much?

[TT-SEA]

Want to make a wager that the second half of July averages warmer than the first half of July at SEA?   

 

 

If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one.

 

[Phil]

At 850mb. Read the post below that one in response to Dewey.

[TT-SEA]

At 850mb. Read the post below that one in response to Dewey.

 

 

You were talking surface temps... everyone was in that discussion.

 

You distanced yourself a little by saying it was not your official forecast.

 

But you believed it enough to not take my wager on SEA.  Which I would have won handily... so good idea there.

 

Your idea was that SEA would be so far below normal in the first half of the month that even heavy troughing in the second half of the month could not be colder.    Reality is that SEA was close to normal in the first half and will be solidly above normal in the second half.

[Phil]

I was not referencing surface departures, because the models never had -10F departures at the surface. Look at the reanalysis of you must.

 

Also, I never took that stupid wager.

 

Wager what? Take a chill pill.

If you want to play the requote game, here are some bust-tastic posts from you.

 

I am not even sure this is a solidy cool period for PDX southward. Looks pretty close to normal most days. Definitely a solidly below normal period farther north and across the east side of the mountains.

 

Opposite ended up being true.

 

EDIT: They are at +3.5 after the first 2 days of that period. Could end up a little above normal still at 7/10.

 

 

Oops.

 

I would be surprised if it goes much beyond the next week... despite what the models show. We should transition back to dry, stable, and considerably more sunny pattern by 7/11 or 7/12.

Oops.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Gotta love urban contamination. Looks like a small section of the eastern sound averaging above normal. Everyone else below:

 

image.png

 

IMO, it looks more like areas adjacent to bodies of water are generally running above normal. What are current SST's like in the sound and coast areas?

 

Could just be coincidence, though.

[Phil]

You were talking surface temps... everyone was in that discussion.

 

You distanced yourself a little by saying it was not your official forecast.

 

But you believed it enough to not take my wager on SEA.  Which I would have won handily... so good idea there.

 

Your idea was that SEA would be so far below normal in the first half of the month that even heavy troughing in the second half of the month could not be colder.    Reality is that SEA was close to normal in the first half and will be solidly above normal in the second half.

I had a -0.5 departure forecasted at SEA, -0.7 at PDX. You're +1 or higher everywhere.

 

I'm going to beat you.

[TT-SEA]

I had a -0.5 departure forecasted at SEA, -0.7 at PDX. You're +1 or higher everywhere.

 

I'm going to beat you.

 

Not at SEA you won't.  

[TT-SEA]

I was not referencing surface departures, because the models never had -10F departures at the surface. Look at the reanalysis of you must.

 

Also, I never took that stupid wager.

 

 

If you want to play the requote game, here are some bust-tastic posts from you.

 

 

Opposite ended up being true.

 

 

 

Oops.

 

 

Oops.

 

 

We did transition to a drier and more stable pattern after 7/12.   That could not have been more accurate!

 

It rained on 10 out of the first 12 days this month here.    And it was much colder.

 

Only one day with rain since that time... and its been much warmer.   Only 1 day below normal.

 

It was warm last week but this week has been even warmer in terms of average.  And then we have really warm all of next week.   You would know that if you were living here.    

[TT-SEA]

I was not referencing surface departures, because the models never had -10F departures at the surface. Look at the reanalysis of you must.

 

 

 

 

You were referencing surface temps.   People were explaining to you what type of temps it would take to get that kind of departure.    

 

There is no question.    

[Front Ranger]

In hindsight, it's kind of amazing that epic Tim vs Phil battles didn't start dominating this place until recently. They're just so perfectly matched.