July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

At this point Tuesday appears to have a shot at a high in the 60s.  Going to be below normal to some extent.

 

 

We have been saying for a few days that Tuesday is an absolute lock for a cool day in the Seattle area.

 

Monday was looking that way as well... but now the system is delayed.

[Phil]

Those analogs nailed July? And 1988 is on the list?

 

Wonder why I brought up 1988? Its been a excellent guide for timing locally. We have just been running warmer than 1988 in the Puget Sound region.

Always trying to start something.

 

This is an analog aggregate, you don't pick one year and rely on it, unless you want to bust on the totality of the pattern progression (which you already did). There are a slew of problems and imperfections in every year, including 1988 which has many issues and inconsistencies with 2016.

 

Please don't reply to me unless you actually want to have a legitimate discussion.

[TT-SEA]

Always trying to start something. Yes, they nailed July.

 

This is an analog aggregate, you don't pick one year and rely on it, unless you want to bust on the totality of the pattern progression (which you already did). There are a slew of problems and imperfections in every year, including 1988 which has many issues and inconsistencies with 2016.

 

Please don't reply to me unless you actually want to have a legitimate discussion.

 

1988 was valid.   Please don't mock for things we have discussed for months.   

 

1988 was my primary analog going into July based on everything you were saying in June!   

 

Then you act like I pulled 1988 out of my a$$.

[Geos]

It appears this cooling trend may behave a bit differently than the past few.  Tonight Forks is already down to 54 under clear skies instead of upper 50s and low clouds.  I would love to see lower dew points and cooler nights this time around.

 

Looks like the marine layer has pushed over most of the Kitsap Peninsula now. Still in the low 70s here.

[TT-SEA]

Verification for Seattle:

 

 

 

7/19 - 77 (3 degrees too cold)

7/20 - 80 (3 degrees too cold)

7/21 - 84 (8 degrees too cold)

7/22 - 73 (1 degree too cold)

7/23 - 73 (ACCURATE)

7/24 - 81 (7 degrees too cold)

7/25 - 86 (9 degrees too cold)

7/26 - 78 (3 degrees too cold)

7/27 - 84 (8 degrees too cold)

7/28 - 88 (6 degrees too cold)

 

 

That is pretty bad.   One day right and every other day too cold.   And some by a wide margin.   

[Phil]

1988 was valid. Please don't mock for things we have discussed for months.

 

Did I suggest otherwise? Why would I include 1988 in my aggregate if I thought it wasn't valid?

 

I said it wasn't valid on its own. This is the case with every analog, dude.

 

1988 was my primary analog going into July based on everything you were saying in June!

There's nothing wrong with that. You'll need more than just one governing analog year, though.

 

Then you act like I pulled 1988 out of my a$$.

What on Earth are you talking about?

[Phil]

Verification for Seattle:

 

 

 

7/19 - 77 (3 degrees too cold)

7/20 - 80 (3 degrees too cold)

7/21 - 84 (8 degrees too cold)

7/22 - 73 (1 degree too cold)

7/23 - 73 (ACCURATE)

7/24 - 81 (7 degrees too cold)

7/25 - 86 (9 degrees too cold)

7/26 - 78 (3 degrees too cold)

7/27 - 84 (8 degrees too cold)

7/28 - 88 (6 degrees too cold)

 

 

That is pretty bad. One day right and every other day too cold. And some by a wide margin.

Okay, so a single 00z ECMWF run was overaggressive with troughing. What's your point here? It was busting warm frequently as recently as late June.

 

This might be the most pointless analysis I've ever seen.

[TT-SEA]

Okay, so a single 00z ECMWF run was overaggressive with troughing. What's your point here? It was busting warm frequently as recently as late June.

This might be the most pointless analysis I've ever seen.

Its been a warm secold half of July here... and it's never pointless to verify the models.

 

You posted that ECMWF forecast.

[Phil]

Its been a warm secold half of July... and it's never pointless to verify the models.

Yeah, minus the July 15th to July 25th part.

 

Or, is this another "SEA only" post?

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, minus the July 15th to July 25th part.

 

Or, is this another "SEA only" post?

 

SEA was +2.0 in the July 15-25 period.   

 

Bellingham was +3.0 in that period.

 

Its been a warm second half of July in the Puget Sound region.  FACT.  

 

I live in the Seattle area Phil.

[Phil]

You posted that ECMWF forecast.

I'm confused.

 

Sure, that particular 00z ECMWF run was overly aggressive with the troughing. What point are you trying to make by reposting it? What does it prove, exactly?

[Phil]

SEA was +2.0 in the July 15-25 period.

 

Bellingham was +3.0 in that period.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here. FACT.

 

I live in the Seattle area Phil.

Just say "yes, I was referring to SEA". No need to ramble incessantly.

[TT-SEA]

Just say "yes, I was referring to SEA". No need to ramble incessantly.

 

 

Puget Sound region... and the entire Seattle area.

 

Not just SEA.

 

Its been a warm second half of July in this area.   The Puget Sound region and the entire Seattle area.

 

All I care about ever.

[Phil]

Puget Sound region... and the entire Seattle area.

 

Not just SEA.

 

Its been a warm second half of July in this area. The Puget Sound region and the entire Seattle area.

 

All I care about ever.

Saying "here" isn't enough because that could imply your entire region, a part of your region, or your backyard. The WA/OR lowlands, as a whole, were cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25. This includes OLM, PDX, and EUG. So you'll have to be specific as to your references.

[TT-SEA]

Saying "here" isn't enough because that could imply your entire region, a part of your region, or your backyard. The WA/OR lowlands, as a whole, were cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25. So you'll have to be specific as to your references.

 

Right Phil.

 

I don't care if it was snowing in Eugene.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.    The Puget Sound region and the Seattle area.

 

How many thousands of times do I have to say it?    Its all I ever care about... for 12 years.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.

[Phil]

Right Phil.

 

I don't care if it was snowing in Eugene.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here. The Puget Sound region and the Seattle area.

 

How many thousands of times do I have to say it? Its all I ever care about... for 12 years.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.

Okay, then clarify it first so you're not misinterpreted.

 

I'm not the only one you've had this discussion with.

[TT-SEA]

Okay, then clarify it first so you're not misinterpreted. I'm the only one you've had this discussion with.

 

I have been consistent for 12 years on this forum.

 

Clarify that I don't live in Portland or Eugene or Spokane?  

[Phil]

I have been consistent for 12 years on this forum.

 

Clarify that I don't live in Portland or Eugene or Spokane?

Stop. You know exactly what I was saying.

 

When you make a forecast or reference temperature anomalies, clarify for what particular area and/or region you're referring to, and do it clearly. That way, you won't have a bunch of people on your back about it.

[TT-SEA]

Stop. You know exactly what I was saying.

 

When you make a forecast or reference temperature anomalies, clarify for what particular area and/or region you're referring to, and do it clearly. That way, you won't have a bunch of people on your back about it.

 

Sure Phil.

 

Nobody knows I live in the Seattle area and forecast for my own area.    

[Phil]

Sure Phil.

 

Nobody knows I live in the Seattle area and forecast for my own area.

If you don't clarify what area of the PNW you're forecasting for, how can anyone else know? Do you think we're psychics or something?

[TT-SEA]

If you don't clarify what area of the PNW you're forecasting for, how can anyone else know? Do you think we're psychics or something?

 

Because I have basically referred to the Seattle area on a daily basis for 12 years?    Both in forecasts and in actual results.   

[snow_wizard]

Forks is already down to 51 and Shelton 59 at midnight.  Much cooler than what we have seen for most of this month.  Maybe more cool / lower dew point air is working down from the northern GOA.

 

EDIT: Shelton dropped from 59 to 57 between 11:55 and midnight.  11 degrees lower than last night at the same time.  Our short warm spell is coming to an end.

[Phil]

Because I have basically referred to the Seattle area on a daily basis for 12 years? Both in forecasts and in actual results.

You've forecasted for the region as a whole, and have made more specific forecasts for the Puget Sound area.

 

When making medium/long range forecasts, if you don't clarify what area of the PNW you're referencing, there's no way anyone can know, either.

[TT-SEA]

You've forecasted for the region as a whole, and have made more specific forecasts for the Puget Sound area.

 

When making medium/long range forecasts, if you don't clarify what area of the PNW you're referencing, there's no way anyone can know, either.

 

Whatever Phil.

 

I have been talking about the Seattle area forecast and anomalies every frickin day this month.    

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.  

[Phil]

Whatever Phil.

 

I have been talking about the Seattle area forecast and anomalies every frickin day this month.

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.

Okay, just be sure to clarify your context going forward, so we can avoid potential misunderstanding.

[ShawniganLake]

Whatever Phil.

 

I have been talking about the Seattle area forecast and anomalies every frickin day this month.    

 

Its been a warm second half of July here.  

The entire second half of the month has been above average here.  The last below average day at Shawnigan Lake was July 16th. 

[Jesse]

The entire second half of the month has been above average here. The last below average day at Shawnigan Lake was July 16th.

Are you trying to egg them on.

 

55 and clear in Missoula this morning. I see PDX dropped into the 50s as well.

[TT-SEA]

Are you trying to egg them on.

 

55 and clear in Missoula this morning. I see PDX dropped into the 50s as well.

 

 

No.... he is just reporting a fact for the Puget Sound region.  

 

There is no debate that its been a warm second half of July up here.

[Jesse]

Lots of Tim and Phil thread fare last night and this morning.

[Geos]

Just off the low of 57° here this morning. Some clouds and some blue sky this morning.

[MossMan]

Beautiful morning! Already 63 degrees!

[ShawniganLake]

Nice morning.  Clear skies and 72F at 11am.  Much cooler than yesterday when we were pushing 80 at this time. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Nice morning.  Clear skies and 72F at 11am.  Much cooler than yesterday when we were pushing 80 at this time. 

 

Yeah, much cooler today. Just 71F here coming up on noon... down about 10 degrees from yesterday. Humidity much lower also.

[TT-SEA]

Really like 12Z ECMWF. A couple tight little ULLs for some rain in the Puget Sound region. And plenty of sunny, warm days as well in the Puget Sound region. Nice mix for the Puget Sound region.

 

I am including Vancouver Island and lower BC since they are on the same body of water as Seattle.

 

Looks very nice for the Puget Sound region. Probably at or a little above normal in the Puget Sound region through 8/10.

 

The warm summer continues in the Puget Sound region.

 

To clarify... I talking about the Puget Sound region.

 

The only place I actually care about.

[MossMan]

Like Tim said the other day...no major crash today, just Sunny and temps already up to 73 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Like Tim said the other day...no major crash today, just Sunny and temps already up to 73 degrees.

 

SEA was 62 at 11am.

 

Pretty major crash alright.

[TT-SEA]

Like Tim said the other day...no major crash today, just Sunny and temps already up to 73 degrees.

Might have to go out on the lake again today.

[TT-SEA]

SEA was 62 at 11am.

Slow start Jim... marine layer. It will warm up into the 70s. I think of a crash being 90s to 60s with no sun. This is a gentle cooling. Very nice.

 

80s to 70s is not a crash. Just a transition from the warm spell to normal.

[snow_wizard]

Going to be interesting to see how Tuesday pans out.  This area spends the entire day either under the heart of the ULL or in cyclonic northerly flow.  The latter is often notoriously cloudy and cool for the Seattle area.  It will depend if enough SW wind manages to materialize to break up the cloud layer or not.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be interesting to see how Tuesday pans out.  This area spends the entire day either under the heart of the ULL or in cyclonic northerly flow.  The latter is often notoriously cloudy and cool for the Seattle area.  It will depend if enough SW wind manages to materialize to break up the cloud layer or not.

I bet on very cool and cloudy that day. Sizable negative departure.