July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

This is a lie.

 

You've taken my place as the most prolific liar on the forum.

Now that is funny.

[Phil]

Ask Jim.

 

It felt very different last night and this morning.

 

We notice small changes since we are in the middle all the time.

I don't think it's even possible to tell the difference between a dewpoint of 40F versus a dewpoint of 55F. At least not when it's warm.

 

They're both dry enough that there's little difference in the rate at which your sweat will evaporate (which is what determines how warm it "feels"). Might make a one or two degree difference given the temperatures in your climate.

[MossMan]

Was actually hoping the clouds would have stuck around a little longer, by 11am the clouds were gone and I was cookin out in the garden doing the weeding. Not complaining however! Currently 74 degrees!

[TT-SEA]

I don't think it's even possible to tell the difference between a dewpoint of 40F versus a dewpoint of 55F. At least not when it's warm.

They're both dry enough that there's very little impact on the evaporative rate of perspiration.

When it's in the upper 50s and low 60s for a long time the change was noticeable.

[TT-SEA]

Was actually hoping the clouds would have stuck around a little longer, by 11am the clouds were gone and I was cookin out in the garden doing the weeding. Not complaining however! Currently 74 degrees!

Strange day. You are about as close to the Sound as SEA and they are only 69. But 73 at Renton and 75 here.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think it's even possible to tell the difference between a dewpoint of 40F versus a dewpoint of 55F. At least not when it's warm.

 

They're both dry enough that there's little difference in the rate at which your sweat will evaporate (which is what determines how warm it "feels"). Might make a one or two degree difference given the temperatures in your climate.

 

He's actually right.  The air has a totally different feel to it.

 

Today is awesome!  We have finally managed to get a day with lots of sunshine and well below normal temps.  I'm not sure what has changed, but we seem to have finally managed to get some low level cool air to make it through the day.  It could be colder SSTs along the immediate coast.  Not sure...

[TT-SEA]

He's actually right.  The air has a totally different feel to it.

 

Today is awesome!  We have finally managed to get a day with lots of sunshine and well below normal temps.  I'm not sure what has changed, but we seem to have finally managed to get some low level cool air to make it through the day.  It could be colder SSTs along the immediate coast.  Not sure...

 

Not related to SSTAs.

[snow_wizard]

Was actually hoping the clouds would have stuck around a little longer, by 11am the clouds were gone and I was cookin out in the garden doing the weeding. Not complaining however! Currently 74 degrees!

 

Are you sure your thermometer is right?  It's pretty odd for SEA to be cooler than you two days in a row.  It's only around 70 here right now.

[MossMan]

Are you sure your thermometer is right? It's pretty odd for SEA to be cooler than you two days in a row. It's only around 70 here right now.

Yep I have two different ones and both are currently at 74...and at actually feels warmer than that.

[Phil]

When it's in the upper 50s and low 60s for a long time the change was noticeable.

The effect does increase exponentially once dewpoints rise into/beyond the low 60s, though still nothing too significant at that stage. I can feel a difference starting in the low/mid 60s, at least usually.

[TT-SEA]

Yep I have two different ones and both are currently at 74...and at actually feels warmer than that.

Feels warm here too now.

[Phil]

He's actually right. The air has a totally different feel to it.

 

Today is awesome! We have finally managed to get a day with lots of sunshine and well below normal temps. I'm not sure what has changed, but we seem to have finally managed to get some low level cool air to make it through the day. It could be colder SSTs along the immediate coast. Not sure...

Coastal SSTAs have dropped by ~5F over the last week, but I agree with Tim (lol) regarding their overall irrelevance here. I think it has more to do with the orientation of the trough and subsequent streamflow.

 

I'll also never understand how anyone can claim to "feel" a difference between dews in the low 50s & dews in the upper 50s. That's like physically impossible almost.

[TT-SEA]

Coastal SSTAs have dropped by ~5F over the last week, but I agree with Tim (lol) regarding their overall irrelevance here.

 

I think it has more to do with the orientation of the trough and subsequent windflow.

 

 

Where?

 

This was Thursday...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

[snow_wizard]

The coastal SSTs have dropped significantly over the past week.  This could have something do with the onshore flow being cooler / drier.

 

[TT-SEA]

The coastal SSTs have dropped significantly over the past week.  This could have something do with the onshore flow being cooler / drier.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Doubt it has that much of an effect... the clouds cleared very effectively today.

 

Normally the effect of the SSTAs inland is the result of lack of clearing.

[Phil]

Where?

 

This was Thursday...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

Use the daily version, higher resolution, more/better maps, and more frequent updates:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

SSTA change over the last 7 days below, actually more like a 7-8 degree cooling in your immediate vicinity:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[TT-SEA]

Use the daily version, higher resolution and more frequent updates: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

SSTA change over the last 7 days. Actually more like a 7-8 degree cooling:

 

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

Thanks for the link... I have been looking for that one.

[TT-SEA]

Still not really colder than normal off our coast though...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[Phil]

The coastal SSTs have dropped significantly over the past week. This could have something do with the onshore flow being cooler / drier.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

It has more to do with pressure rises over the NPAC. Both the pressure differential itself and the anticyclonic flow associated with it boosts coastal upwelling and equatorward currents along the west coast (cooling SSTAs), and also produces a "bulge" and subsequent downwelling over the central NPAC.

[Phil]

Still not really colder than normal off our coast though...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

Well, the higher resolution CDAS data now has the immediate coastal waters cooler than average, but it's a very thin strip confined to the coast. So, it's largely irrelevant, even on a microclimatic scale.

 

The NEPAC will cool over time, however.

[TT-SEA]

Well, the higher resolution CDAS data now has the immediate coastal waters cooler than average, but it's a very thin strip confined to the coast.

 

The NEPAC will cool over time, however;

 

 

Yes... but I doubt all of a sudden its now 7 degrees cooler in Seattle (all things being equal) while most of the region off our coast is above normal still.

 

Probably some weak remnant inversion left over today from the marine push last night even though its totally sunny.

[snow_wizard]

Coastal SSTAs have dropped by ~5F over the last week, but I agree with Tim (lol) regarding their overall irrelevance here. I think it has more to do with the orientation of the trough and subsequent streamflow.

 

I'll also never understand how anyone can claim to "feel" a difference between dews in the low 50s & dews in the upper 50s. That's like physically impossible almost.

 

Could be.  I still think chillier SSTs could have an effect on how cold the onshore flow is.

[TT-SEA]

But today's readings seem to be related to proximity to the Sound because its in the mid-70s now just east of the airport and all the way out here.  

[snow_wizard]

Well, the higher resolution CDAS data now has the immediate coastal waters cooler than average, but it's a very thin strip confined to the coast. So, it's largely irrelevant, even on a microclimatic scale.

 

The NEPAC will cool over time, however.

 

The trends are certainly promising for a lowering PDO.  The anoms are doing exactly what they need to.

[Phil]

Could be. I still think chillier SSTs could have an effect on how cold the onshore flow is.

Maybe on the immediate coast? I don't think the cooling is nearly enough (yet) to have much impact on the marine layer/inversion potential yet, assuming it has an effect in the first place.

[Phil]

The trends are certainly promising for a lowering PDO. The anoms are doing exactly what they need to.

I agree with this. The July PDO # should drop notably from the June #.

[TT-SEA]

Could be.  I still think chillier SSTs could have an effect on how cold the onshore flow is.

 

 

No way is it causing SEA to be below normal on a sunny day when its still above normal overall offshore of our coast.

[TT-SEA]

I agree with this. The July PDO # should drop notably from the June #.

 

 

Big drop coming.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure of the reason... but SEA might end up at -4 today and be one of the coolest stations in the region.   Even Bellingham is running warmer than SEA.

 

Normally it would take clouds to cause that but we have wall-to-wall sunshine now.

[Phil]

Does not work like other places huh?

 

SEA will not be -4 or -5 by the way. Look at the visible satellite loop.

 

SEA is at a -5.5 for the day right now but it's sunny there and it's only 2 p.m.

I just might go 2 for 2 @ SEA..

[TT-SEA]

I just might go 2 for 2 @ SEA..

 

Maybe.

 

They are at -3.5 right now.   Maybe a 6 p.m. high though.

[MossMan]

Not sure of the reason... but SEA might end up at -4 today and be one of the coolest stations in the region. Even Bellingham is running warmer than SEA.

 

Normally it would take clouds to cause that but we have wall-to-wall sunshine now.

Like Jim mentioned, it's quite unusual for us north Enders to be running warmer than SEA but we seem to be.

[Phil]

Maybe.

 

They are at -3.5 right now. Maybe a 6 p.m. high though.

Their daily average is 77/57, right? I think at least a -3 is doable.

 

Might have to watch for midnight lows tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Their daily average is 77/57, right? I think at least a -3 is doable.

Might have to watch for midnight lows tonight.

 

No midnight low... it was 56 there this morning. They will get down to that by tomorrow morning.

[Phil]

FWIW, years with similar KW/HiFreq progressions relative to this year (in August) all produced notable "GOA vortex" responses during the mid-August timeframe, followed by a more classic Niña look (offshore ridge/-PNA, western trough) response in late August, with the GOA vortex bifurcating in most cases (though in a few instances it just moved into the PNW).

[Phil]

No midnight low... it was 56 there this morning. They will get down to that by tomorrow morning.

Maybe not @ SEA, but I think OLM has a chance to surpass their low of 55F. Less mixing tonight w/ slightly drier mid-levels.

[Kayla]

Not sure of the reason... but SEA might end up at -4 today and be one of the coolest stations in the region.   Even Bellingham is running warmer than SEA.

 

Normally it would take clouds to cause that but we have wall-to-wall sunshine now.

 

It's not just SEA. PDX is at -3.5 for the day as well with complete sunshine here since 11am. Definitely shows that there has been a pretty significant climate shift for our region compared to the last 2 years.

[Front Ranger]

Feels warm here too now.

Lol

[TT-SEA]

Lol

It does. Its more comfortable to be in the shade.

 

That is usually the line of feels warm and not warm for me. And usually it's around 75.

[TT-SEA]

It's not just SEA. PDX is at -3.5 for the day as well with complete sunshine here since 11am. Definitely shows that there has been a pretty significant climate shift for our region compared to the last 2 years.

SEA was below normal for a week in late July last year without any of the days being totally cloudy.