July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Not sure of the reason... but SEA might end up at -4 today and be one of the coolest stations in the region.   Even Bellingham is running warmer than SEA.

 

Normally it would take clouds to cause that but we have wall-to-wall sunshine now.

 

WSW wind off the water all day there.

[TT-SEA]

WSW wind off the water all day there.

Yes... must be it.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Still managed a +0.8F up here. Seems like the only way to get a negative departure is to have a front or ULL right overhead.

[TT-SEA]

For me... today was the most surprising day of the month at SEA. It was not what I expected. Most every other day went basically the way I thought it would play out at the time.

[Phil]

Assuming no midnight lows, looks as if SEA ran a 72/56 spread today, for a -3.5 departure.

 

The high was set at 421pm, so not a 6pm high either. Maybe we've finally turned a corner here.

[TT-SEA]

Assuming no midnight lows, SEA's high was 72 degrees @ 421PM, for a -3.5 departure.

 

So, no 6pm high today.

 

 

Probably the biggest surprise.   But the 5 p.m. reading showed 70 with a high of 71.   

 

Then it got up to 72 later on the quicker update view.  

 

Anyways... 72/56 is a straight up -3 departure and not -3.5  but that is splitting hairs.   

[Phil]

Probably the biggest surprise. But the 5 p.m. reading showed 70 with a high of 71.

 

Then it got up to 72 later on the quicker update view.

 

Anyways... 72/56 is a straight up -3 departure and not -3.5 but that is splitting hairs.

Oops, yeah it's -3. Thought the average high was 78.

[TT-SEA]

SEA finishes the month at 66.80 and normal is 65.70

 

So a +1.1 departure and almost perfectly normal rainfall.

 

There were 22 days at or above normal and 9 days below normal.  

 

The period from 7/3-7/10 was the coolest part of the month and there was some rain on most of those days.

[Phil]

Looks like another miscalculated departure @ OLM. Spread of 73/56 (should be 55?) for a -6/+4. Assuming 73/56 stands vs the average of 79/52, that should read as a -1 departure (64.5 vs average of 65.5).

 

There are a bunch of these rounding errors (and outright typos) @ SEA, OLM, & PDX.

[Deweydog]

He's actually right. The air has a totally different feel to it.

 

Today is awesome! We have finally managed to get a day with lots of sunshine and well below normal temps. I'm not sure what has changed, but we seem to have finally managed to get some low level cool air to make it through the day. It could be colder SSTs along the immediate coast. Not sure...

Oh Jim...

[Kayla]

SEA was below normal for a week in late July last year without any of the days being totally cloudy.

 

Plenty of those days were very cloudy/misty only to then be followed by a 103º day at PDX.

 

As much as you may want to refuse the shift, it's going to get more and more tiring for you to "defend" the reality.

[TT-SEA]

Plenty of those days were very cloudy/misty only to then be followed by a 103º day at PDX.

 

As much as you may want to refuse the shift, it's going to get more more tiring for you to "defend" the reality.

 

I acknowledged the regime shift about 100 times already and said it came early.   

 

Just pointing out an interesting part of July 2015.     It was not all hot.  

[TT-SEA]

Plenty of those days were very cloudy/misty only to then be followed by a 103º day at PDX.

 

 

 

And not entirely true.   Couple of examples...  

 

This is July 27, 2015... a day that was a -3 at SEA with a high of only 74.

 

 

 

Here is 7/22/15... a -1 day at SEA with a high of 75.

 

 

 

We had sunny days last July that were below normal as well. 

[Tyler Mode]

8 hours until the sun sets in Barrow, Alaska for the first time since May 10th...

[snow_wizard]

Assuming no midnight lows, looks as if SEA ran a 72/56 spread today, for a -3.5 departure.

 

The high was set at 421pm, so not a 6pm high either. Maybe we've finally turned a corner here.

 

 

I think so.  Today was quite a bit different than most of this month.  Kind of ironic we had many days it got warmer with lower 850s in spite of a lot of sunshine this afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

Oh Jim...

 

I keep seeing evidence to support the theory.

[TT-SEA]

I think so.  Today was quite a bit different than most of this month.  Kind of ironic we had many days it got warmer with lower 850s in spite of a lot of sunshine this afternoon.

 

 

Maybe higher 850mb temps left a weak inversion in place.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like another miscalculated departure @ OLM. Spread of 73/56 (should be 55?) for a -6/+4. Assuming 73/56 stands vs the average of 79/52, that should read as a -1 departure (64.5 vs average of 65.5).

 

There are a bunch of these rounding errors (and outright typos) @ SEA, OLM, & PDX.

 

This is something we have talked about on here before.  They usually round up on the daily average, but down on the normal.  Anything to make things look warmer than they really are.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours until the sun sets in Barrow, Alaska for the first time since May 10th...

 

The inevitably march toward winter.

[TT-SEA]

I keep seeing evidence to support the theory.

 

SSTAs are still above normal offshore.   How could it change the weather in Seattle that much?

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[snow_wizard]

Still managed a +0.8F up here. Seems like the only way to get a negative departure is to have a front or ULL right overhead.

 

The whole thing with Southern BC and Vancouver Island is just bizarre this summer.  No real reason for it to have been so warm.  The only thing I can figure is the normal shallow marine layer up there has been consistently scoured out this summer due to all of the troughs swinging through.  From a 500mb pattern and 850mb temp point of view it has been a cool summer up there.  You just need to live at higher elevation.

[Front Ranger]

SSTAs are still above normal offshore.   How could it change the weather in Seattle that much?

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

Looking at the entire globe while analyzing local SSTA effect on Seattle weather...now that's looking at the big picture.

[Front Ranger]

The whole thing with Southern BC and Vancouver Island is just bizarre this summer.  No real reason for it to have been so warm.  The only thing I can figure is the normal shallow marine layer up there has been consistently scoured out this summer due to all of the troughs swinging through.  From a 500mb pattern and 850mb temp point of view it has been a cool summer up there.  You just need to live at higher elevation.

 

To be fair, the cool 850 anomalies have been centered further south.

 

And I bet if we were to take a look at the 500mb anomalies from June 1 to now, they really haven't been that much below normal.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the entire globe while analyzing local SSTA effect on Seattle weather...now that's looking at the big picture.

 

 

The only map I have.  

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow looks great.... the trough is now entirely focused on Tuesday.    ECMWF has heavy rain with a c-zone over King County that morning.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

To be fair, the cool 850 anomalies have been centered further south.

 

And I bet if we were to take a look at the 500mb anomalies from June 1 to now, they really haven't been that much below normal.

 

I was thinking more like true summer...June 20 onward.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like a possible western typhoon will recurve just before it hits Japan and will affect our weather here in the USA. If I'm not mistaken the typhoon rule says if a typhoon recurves before Japan it will pump up a west coast ridge and build a trough over the east.

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/759713815621734401

 

Today's new run of the 12z EURO shows the typhoon well as it starts to recurve.

 

 

 

This seems very early for a recurving typhoon. This might throw a wrench into what everybody expected to happen in August.

 

There is no rule when it comes to how those things effect the pattern over North America.  At least not one that is true any large percentage of the time.

[Front Ranger]

The only map I have.  

 

There are others...

[TT-SEA]

Be interesting to see what this day brings...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif

[snow_wizard]

There are others...

 

He likes that one because it always looks so warm compared to the others.

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday afternoon has warmed up... presumably because the ULL is directly over us and not to the east.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.48.0000.gif

 

 

Not solid cloud cover either:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.48.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

It's not entirely 100% accurate but it can be used as a tool to predict the weather downstream. Typhoon Nuri recurved in November 2014 and was responsible for the November 2014 Arctic Blast that hit most of the USA. We were right on the edge of the cold air here in the PNW and some locations got frozen precipitation.

Remember, wavelengths are still summertime short.

[TT-SEA]

He likes that one because it always looks so warm compared to the others.

 

Phil literally just linked me to that map today.

 

He told me to use that link today because it has higher resolution.

 

I am completely following orders from Phil and I am STILL wrong.   

 

Wow.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 hours until the sun sets in Barrow, Alaska for the first time since May 10th...

 

Goes down for some 30 minutes to about 0.02 degrees below the horizon at 2:33 AM, which is their midnight due to their ridiculous time zone. Solar refraction might keep it above though, but looks like it's raining there.

[Geos]

Awesome c-zone over King County on Tuesday morning.   Heavy rain with that.  

 

 

(per the 12Z ECMWF detailed map)

 

How far south is it modeled to get?

 

High of 74° here today. Drove around Tiger Mountain and it was sunny there at 11am.

[TT-SEA]

How far south is it modeled to get?

 

High of 74° here today. Drove around Tiger Mountain and it was sunny there at 11am.

 

Right over the I-90 corridor in the morning per the ECMWF.

[Phil]

So..OLM down to 57 as of 10PM with calm winds and clear skies. They've got 3hrs until 1AM.

 

They will do this tonight. They have to.

[TT-SEA]

So..OLM down to 57 as of 10PM with calm winds and clear skies. They've got 3hrs until 1AM.

 

They will do this tonight. They have to.

 

 

Marine cloud deck is very close to OLM.

[Phil]

Marine cloud deck is very close to OLM.

Infrared has it 30+ miles away. At rate it's progressing, they should have at least 2 hours, probably closer to 4 hours.

[Geos]

Pretty good sat image of the marine layer this evening.