July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Coming up on 85° now.

 

Will be nice to get some rain. Keep the lawns from getting too brown.

 

 

Monday night looks awesome for King County.

 

Although brown lawns are very normal around here in the summer.   This is something that always surprises our guests from the Midwest where a brown lawn is considering very taboo.  

[Geos]

Monday night looks awesome for King County.

 

Although brown lawns are very normal around here in the summer.   This is something that always surprises our guests from the Midwest where a brown lawn is considering very taboo.  

 

I didn't bother with the lawn if it did get brown. Just goes dormant for awhile. Only thing that is worth watering is the garden and flowers.

 

Up to 88° now.

[Jesse]

First 90 at PDX in about a month and a half.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, it takes into account the average for the whole month. Take for instance December 2008 where most locations got 2 feet of snow. This is the 500mb composite anomaly for that month. It doesn't scream snow/cold but the general pattern is there for you to think snow and cold is a good possibility.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Ho1GURL.png

 

Now take a look at January 1950 where the PNW got hammered with feet and feet of snow and cold. The map below is practically the perfect pattern you want to see set up for the PNW in the Winter time.

 

http://i.imgur.com/CnmmWJp.png

 

There should be no shortage of Arctic air coming down this Winter. With a negative PNA pattern in place the Arctic air will have to go somewhere and it will likely be in the PNW.

A January 1950 repeat, although likely colder and a LITTLE snowier, is looking like an inevitability at this point. Stay tuned!

[Jesse]

A January 1950 repeat, although likely colder and a LITTLE snowier, is looking like an inevitability at this point. Stay tuned!

No way!

[Deweydog]

No way!

If we can realize 85-90 in mid April, anything is possible. **** that, anything is LIKELY!!!

[stuffradio]

Nice day.

A bit warm, but it's nice

[stuffradio]

A January 1950 repeat, although likely colder and a LITTLE snowier, is looking like an inevitability at this point. Stay tuned!

But what does the CFS say on Christmas eve!?

[Deweydog]

But what does the CFS say on Christmas eve!?

Merry Christmas?

[TT-SEA]

There is a chance that the second part of next week will be quite a bit warmer than the current thinking here of generally troughy and cool.     The models have been hinting at this and the 18Z GFS does as well.

 

One week from today on the 18Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_174_850_temp_ht.gif

 

And then Friday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_198_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_198_850_temp_ht.gif

[Jesse]

12z Euro ensembles were generally troughier than the operational from the middle of next week onward.

[Phil]

12z Euro ensembles were generally troughier than the operational from the middle of next week onward.

Yeah, cooler than average in the d11-15 range too. Not even a hint of a ridge in mid-August.

[crf450ish]

A January 1950 repeat, although likely colder and a LITTLE snowier, is looking like an inevitability at this point. Stay tuned!

Now I have seen snow wiz reference the January 1950 event in Seattle many times over. To see someone else reference it randomly like this is saying something. It would be interesting to witness how Seattle would react if this happened.....the entire puget sound would be SHUT DOWN....

[Deweydog]

All you ever post is about how cold it's going to be here. Despite being a solidly above normal summer in progress in our area.

 

It is warm sometimes... you said I post about that so you don't have to and likewise on the ENSO situation.

 

Based on some of your posts you would think we would have a record breaking Nina in place by now!

Bad post.

[Geos]

89° here and 88° at SEA.

 

I bet tomorrow hits 90°.

 

In the low 90s south of OLM

 

[Geos]

Salem and Eugene hit 95 at 5pm while at the same time it was only 61 in Newport. You gotta love our micro-climates here in the PNW! Newport should add to it's negative departure for the month. It's crazy that there's a small section along that Oregon coast that's been way below normal this month compared to the northern and southern coastlines.

 

 

Has the area been impacted by more moisture this month or is it just due to a more persistent onshore flow in that area?

[snow_wizard]

I'd say there's a good chance most the region is below normal after the first week of August. Probably not by much, but definitely more likely than above normal.

 

The pattern does not look the same as the past couple weeks.

 

We're more than due for a cool pattern to over perform.  The coming troughs hit us at a bit different angle than the ones this month did.

[TT-SEA]

We're more than due for a cool pattern to over perform.  The coming troughs hit us at a bit different angle than the ones this month did.

 

 

Monday and Tuesday look cooler than normal and wet.

 

The rest of week is definitely normal or above normal for us here on the models at this time.   The pattern later next week is not likely to be an over-performing cool pattern.      

[MossMan]

Another picture perfect day! Low to mid 80's, NW breeze, and wall to wall sun. Perfection!!

[Deweydog]

Nice evening!

[TT-SEA]

My goofy boys and their friends taking the boat out on their own on this beautiful evening...

 

[Deweydog]

My goofy boys and their friends taking the boat out on their own on this beautiful evening...

 

You're ******* nuts.

[TT-SEA]

You're ******* nuts.

They have done it several times this summer. They are pretty good and very responsible. Growing up too fast though. Got to give them some freedom now.

[TT-SEA]

88/61 at SEA today for a healthy +8.   Today alone was almost equal to the sum of all the 7 negative departure days this month combined.

 

94/61 at PDX for a +7.

[Deweydog]

They have done it several times this summer. They are pretty good and very responsible. Growing up too fast though. Got to give them some freedom now.

Freedom isn't free!!!

[MossMan]

They have done it several times this summer. They are pretty good and very responsible. Growing up too fast though. Got to give them some freedom now.

Nice! Reminds me of my childhood!

[Phil]

00z GFS certainly starts August off on a cooler-than-average note. Also cooler than average on 7/30 & 7/31.

 

Looks like tomorrow is the last well above average day over the majority of the region.

[Front Ranger]

So SEA will run warmer than model guidance just because you want it to?

 

Whatever. I'm out for now.

SEA anomalies default to +1 to +2 what the 850s would suggest in the summer. Depends on the pattern, but with appreciable sun, that is the case.

 

Again, why I think focusing on a single station to determine how much it's above or below "normal" is dumb.

[TT-SEA]

SEA anomalies default to +1 to +2 what the 850s would suggest in the summer. Depends on the pattern, but with appreciable sun, that is the case.

 

Again, why I think focusing on a single station to determine how much it's above or below "normal" is dumb.

 

 

The Seattle area will be in the upper 70s to near 80 from the middle of next week into the weekend.    Do I need to calculate the specific departure at each location in the area?  

 

SEA will probably run +2 or +3.     It is what it is.   The maps will likely paint another area of above normal temps across the Puget Sound region from Seattle to Bellingham into lower BC and out to the WA and NW OR coast.   That would not happen if only SEA was running much higher departures.  

 

Bellingham has only had 2 days below normal in July.    Astoria has had none.   And they are running +2.6 before today.

 

What part of this is so hard to understand?     The pattern later next week is ripe for this to continue.  ITS NOT JUST SEA.  I don't care about eastern WA being cooler than normal again.   In fact... I love it.  

 

[Jesse]

Most of Oregon has been cooler than normal as well. Not sure why that is so frequently overlooked.

[TT-SEA]

GFS is slower with the Monday system... might allow SEA to get warmer than previously thought.   Tuesday is solidly below normal across the entire region.

[TT-SEA]

Post away about Oregon!   It does not change what has happened in a large area up here and in NW OR that has been warmer than normal.

 

And guess what? With the 850mb contour lines running north to south we end up with SEA and PDX close in temperatures again.   Equalizing pattern continues.

 

Same temperatures... a little above normal here and a little below normal there.     Its both!   

 

I really only care to make short term forecasts for the Seattle area though.   That is my home.

[Jesse]

PNW month to date:

 

 

I would say about 90% of the region (Oregon/Washington/Idaho) has been below average in July so far. And this map might be a little cooler by month's end, with a below average 30th-31st now looking likely.

 

Phil nailed the pattern in the PNW this month.

[GHweatherChris]

PNW month to date:

 

image.png

 

I would say about 90% of the region (Oregon/Washington/Idaho) has been below average in July so far. And this map might be a little cooler by month's end, with a below average 30th-31st now looking likely.

 

Phil nailed the pattern in the PNW this month.

Accurate!

 

However, KSEA is the only actual barometer now so.....

[Geos]

GFS definitely boosted temps for Monday for the Puget Sound region.

 

 

vs. 18z.

 

[TT-SEA]

Accurate!

 

However, KSEA is the only actual barometer now so.....

 

No.

 

Lets use BLI and AST only.   They are much warmer than SEA.

 

I hear Victoria blows them all away!

[TT-SEA]

PNW month to date:

 

image.png

 

I would say about 90% of the region (Oregon/Washington/Idaho) has been below average in July so far. And this map might be a little cooler by month's end, with a below average 30th-31st now looking likely.

 

Phil nailed the pattern in the PNW this month.

 

 

How many times have I said this?

 

Regionally cool... locally warm.   

 

Both right for what we were forecasting overall.  

 

It can be both.      And if you don't live in the Puget Sound region then you don't care about our weather.   Just like Salem and Ritzville don't matter much to me.   

 

Regional forecasting is very valuable.   I sort of feel like we are on the outside looking in on the really cool weather just like Phil is doing.   It has not really happened here.   It has happened in other places.

 

And it looks to continue.   

[TT-SEA]

Considering the cool region... nailing the warm Puget Sound region forecast is even more impressive.    And I certainly would call a cool forecast in certain patterns (like 2010) if it applied.   I have no problem forecasting weather that I do not want.   See the July 1-10 period for an example.   

 

I tend to be overly-pessimistic overall.     

[TT-SEA]

GFS definitely boosted temps for Monday for the Puget Sound region.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072900/gfs_T2m_nwus_17.png

 

vs. 18z.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072818/gfs_T2m_nwus_18.png

 

 

00Z ECMWF  just followed suit.

 

It is considerably warmer for Monday for the Puget Sound region with a slower moving system.

 

And still totally sunny into the evening when the 12Z run showed heavy rain.   In fact... the 00Z run takes away all rain in Seattle from that system into Tuesday.

[Timmy Supercell]

96 / 55 today in Klamath Falls. Hottest day of 2016 so far. Almost matched the record of 97 in 1934. Tomorrow could be 98-99 degrees (should beat the record of 96 in 2003 tomorrow). 

 

This was only my 8th 90+ degree day since early June.