July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

All of its busts have involved overestimating or underestimating the marine layer, see the frequent warm busts @ PDX. There is no "rule" or inherent cold bias involved.

 

SEA will probably come in at 78/57 today.

 

 

78/59 in the books.   A +2 day.

[Phil]

78/59 in the books. A +2 day.

Yeah I meant 78/59, not sure why I wrote 57.

[TT-SEA]

Nice warm spell on the 00Z GFS next week.  

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah I meant 78/59, not sure why I wrote 57.

Accuracy matters.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice warm spell on the 00Z GFS next week.  

Overall, looks pretty seasonable through the entire run.  A little cool here, a little warm there.  Nothing too crazy. 

[Phil]

Accuracy matters.

I agree. What's your point?

[Geos]

Still a warm one today despite the AM marine layer. High of 80° here.

 

Was a beautiful evening to be outside. 85° in the point for Thursday.

[ShawniganLake]

The 6z really watered down the incoming trough for the weekend.

[TT-SEA]

The 6z really watered down the incoming trough for the weekend.

 

 

No... its really cold.  

 

06Z run shows both days around 14-15C down here now.    

 

Marine layer will actually keep it cooler down here per the ECMWF.   Both weekend days start out very cloudy and it will probably last into the early afternoon like yesterday.   Both afternoons look sunny though with highs probably close to normal.   Monday is looking warmer.

 

Not seeing signs of a cold August right now.  

[Jesse]

06z GFS leaves the incoming troughing unchanged, with 850mb temps plunging to a chilly 5c down here. That's nearly 10 degrees below average for upper air temps in early August.

The ensemble mean stays below average the entire run too. Great run. This will get us off to a good start for a cool August.

[TT-SEA]

That image is not right or not updating. The 06Z run clearly shows 850mb temps of 15C both weekend days in Portland.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon:

 

 

 

Also shows 850mb temps around 20C by Thursday:

 

[Deweydog]

Models seem to have edged a bit warmer for tomorrow/Friday. Could make a run at 95 at the airport.

[Jesse]

Models seem to have edged a bit warmer for tomorrow/Friday. Could make a run at 95 at the airport.

Hope it happens. If nothing else it will weaken the perennial case for a September rebound.

[Deweydog]

Hope it happens. If nothing else it will weaken the perrinial case for a September rebound.

You're screwed. There's hell to pay for last September's pleasantries.

[Jesse]

You're screwed. There's hell to pay for last September's pleasantries.

Average Septembers have a long and storied history of leading to scorchers the following year.

 

Same goes with warm/cool ones. Pretty strong correlation.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows basically the same as the 06Z run for the weekend.    Around 15C just east of Seattle down through Portland on both Saturday and Sunday.   That German site must have been using the 06Z run from the previous day.   

 

Best to just use that site and not actually look at the real GFS runs at all.  

[Deweydog]

Average Septembers have a long and storied history of leading to scorchers the following year.

 

Same goes with warm/cool ones. Pretty strong correlation.

Exactly.

[TT-SEA]

Also the 12Z GFS still looks like a possible warm spell later next week as well.

[Deweydog]

12Z GFS shows basically the same as the 06Z run for the weekend. Around 15C just east of Seattle down through Portland on both Saturday and Sunday. That German site must have been using the 06Z run from the previous day.

We really need to get to the bottom of this. Congressional hearings perhaps?

[Deweydog]

Also the 12Z GFS still looks like a possible warm spell later next week as well.

Looks fairly blah throughout.

[Jesse]

Looks fairly blah throughout.

Lots of summer perfection.

[TT-SEA]

Looks fairly blah throughout.

 

Still a possible warm spell with 850mb temps getting up to around 20C.   

 

Generally blah = gorgeous this time of year.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... Saturday has trended warmer again on the WRF.    Looks like low 80s possible up here.    

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

[Jesse]

GFS MOS only has PDX peaking at 91 and 88 Thu/Fri, respectively. But it has generally been running a couple degrees too cool lately.

[James Jones]

12Z GFS shows basically the same as the 06Z run for the weekend.    Around 15C just east of Seattle down through Portland on both Saturday and Sunday.   That German site must have been using the 06Z run from the previous day.   

 

Best to just use that site and not actually look at the real GFS runs at all.  

For PDX I always use this site, the graph is just cleaner and easier to look at. The problem is that sometimes it's slow to update.

 

http://weather.jimlittle.net/tools/ensemble_plots/images/06_z_gfs_ens.png(just change the 06 in the URL to 12, 18 or whatever for the other runs)

 

http://i.imgur.com/ExHu5PX.png?1

[TT-SEA]

For PDX I always use this site, the graph is just cleaner and easier to look at. The problem is that sometimes it's slow to update.

 

http://weather.jimlittle.net/tools/ensemble_plots/images/06_z_gfs_ens.png(just change the 06 in the URL to 12, 18 or whatever for the other runs)

 

http://i.imgur.com/ExHu5PX.png?1

 

 

Ensemble mean is mostly at or above normal for the entire run.

[James Jones]

Ensemble mean is mostly at or above normal for the entire run.

Yeah. The average used on this graph is a bit cooler than the German one, and the ensemble mean is a bit warmer. Not sure why those differences are there.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. The average used on this graph is a bit cooler than the German one, and the ensemble mean is a bit warmer. Not sure what the difference is.

 

 

It was showing the previous day's 06Z run... you can tell by how cold the operational run got in that image over the weekend.   Nothing close to what the run from last night was showing.

 

Also illustrates the models trending warmer now.   

[Deweydog]

So I hear the models are trending a bit warmer the last few runs. Can anyone confirm this a bunch of times?

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro kept a general troughy-ish pattern after the weekend.

[TT-SEA]

0z Euro kept a general troughy-ish pattern after the weekend.

 

 

Not exactly chilly though... quite a bit warmer than previous runs had shown.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-wRmViz.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-0C6BIf.png

[Jesse]

0z Euro kept a general troughy-ish pattern after the weekend.

Shhhhh.....

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... shhhhhh.

 

Don't mention that it has warmed up significantly from what it was showing earlier   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF from Monday night for next Wednesday...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zWB7W_.png

 

 

And the 00Z ECMWF from last night for the same day...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-wRmViz.png

 

 

Pretty noticeable shift to warmer.

[Deweydog]

0z Euro kept a general troughy-ish pattern after the weekend.

Yeah, that 570dm thickness line is dangerously close to dropping south of us at some point during day 10. Keeping a very close eye on it.

[GobBluth]

Not exactly chilly though... quite a bit warmer than previous runs had shown.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-wRmViz.png

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-0C6BIf.png

FFS, stop with this chilly BS. This time of year its a miracle to get temps below 80. Lets just try "comfortable".

[TT-SEA]

FFS, stop with this chilly BS. This time of year its a miracle to get temps below 80. Lets just try "comfortable".

 

 

Not my word.  

[BLI snowman]

Not my word.  

 

Jared's post said "troughy", not "chilly".

[TT-SEA]

Jared's post said "troughy", not "chilly".

 

Well aware.    Lots of talk recently about a cool or chilly first part of August.  Not looking as likely.