July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I think the differences are fairly small overall. Tim seems more desperate to hold on to the recent past, a past which has left you pretty scarred, so it makes sense you'd lean Phil's way. But I can't wrap my head around why someone who lives 3,000 miles from here would care so much as to lose his mind so frequently over the musings over one North Bend yuppie.

The only thing that's scarring around here are marine layer days.

[TT-SEA]

I think the differences are fairly small overall. Tim seems more desperate to hold on to the recent past, a past which has left you pretty scarred, so it makes sense you'd lean Phil's way. But I can't wrap my head around why someone who lives 3,000 miles from here would care so much as to lose his mind so frequently over the musings over one North Bend yuppie.

 

This year stands on its own.   I am not hanging onto last summer which was pretty miserable... and last winter which was one of the more persistently wet winters ever.     

 

This summer has been a refreshing change and quite pleasant overall.  And this winter will likely be more interesting.   I have no qualms with the weather this year so far.

[Deweydog]

Last week was warm here... this week is warm here.

 

What silly points?

 

We were discussing Saturday. I said it could speed up. That is a possibility.

 

Then reported the 18Z run was warmer at the 850mb level compared to the 12Z run. Its the only run to discuss right now. And that point is true.

Last week?

 

Didn't make it too far into those 12 hours...

[TT-SEA]

And Phil... you can talk regionally and I can talk locally without the two conflicting.

 

Last week was warm here.   That is a fact.   It does not mean you are wrong on a regional level.  

[TT-SEA]

85/59 at SEA today.

 

Should end up +5.5 on the day.

[TT-SEA]

There's a new thread for Tim and Phil.  I moved some of the recent posts over, which is a fairly tedious process.  I'll move more over next time I'm on a conference call.

 

 

Thanks Chris.   I moved a couple more.   Big improvement.  I like it.

[TT-SEA]

First half of July (1-15)... SEA was almost perfectly normal at +0.1

 

So far for the second half of July (16-25)... SEA is at +2.1 and climbing.  

[snow_wizard]

How do people feel about this Nina looking like a complete bust already? Some models saying ENSO goes positive by New Years!

 

It's not going to happen.  100% confidence on that.  Nino 3.4 just recently hit -1.0 for a short time.

[snow_wizard]

The 6 to 10 outlook and 8-14 outlook are both for below normal temps and precip.  Dream combo for this area.

[snow_wizard]

The mean on the ECMWF Nino plumes shows Nino 3.4 at around -0.2 or -0.3 for this winter.  I will be surprised if it's even that high.  If the Nina is subdued this winter it will likely be strong next winter according to past history.

[snow_wizard]

The sun is already spotless again. 

[TT-SEA]

The 6 to 10 outlook and 8-14 outlook are both for below normal temps and precip.  Dream combo for this area.

 

 

Normal temps and dry is a good combo.

 

That will probably be the result as well.  

[Front Ranger]

Normal temps and dry is a good combo.

 

That will probably be the result as well.  

 

For SEA.

 

Which is all that matters, of course.

[TT-SEA]

For SEA.

 

Which is all that matters, of course.

Normal temps and dry is good combo in the PNW in the summer.

[Front Ranger]

Normal temps and dry is good combo in the PNW in the summer.

 

Looks like a below normal pattern likely for most the region. Just like the first 2/3 of July.

 

And this is the driest time of year. Below normal precip chances doesn't mean much.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a below normal pattern likely for most the region. Just like the first 2/3 of July.

 

And this is the driest time of year. Below normal precip chances doesn't mean much.

 

Probably.    Cooler east of the mountains works pretty well over here in this pattern at this time of year.   

 

Actually... it works well in the winter as well with a cold pool in the basin and offshore flow here.

[Front Ranger]

Probably. Cooler east of the mountains works pretty well over here in this pattern at this time of year.

 

Actually... it works well in the winter as well with a cold pool in the basin and offshore flow here.

Cooler than normal on the west side.

[TT-SEA]

Cooler than normal on the west side.

 

 

 

 

Does not have to be all or nothing.

 

Its been warmer than normal in places... including Seattle.    Even more to the north and in NW OR and SW WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mean on the ECMWF Nino plumes shows Nino 3.4 at around -0.2 or -0.3 for this winter.  I will be surprised if it's even that high.  If the Nina is subdued this winter it will likely be strong next winter according to past history.

 

That would technically be a "cold neutral," not a bad ENSO state if past history is an indicator. 

[TT-SEA]

That would technically be a "cold neutral," not a bad ENSO state if past history is an indicator. 

 

 

It is sort of odd now that I think about it... considering the hype on here like it was going to be the strongest Nina ever recorded.    Nina has taken hold of the entire planet and controlling everything.  

 

I modified my analog list because I was told we were going from strong Nino to strong Nina and was told that I was trolling when I said it might stay on the cold side of neutral.   

 

Cold neutral is generally a good thing here.

[Front Ranger]

 

 

 

Does not have to be all or nothing.

 

Its been warmer than normal in places... including Seattle. Even more to the north and in NW OR and SW WA.

I said first 2/3. And western OR is part of the PNW.

 

OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG were all below normal through the 20th. The maps were posted. It was clearly below normal for the majority of the region.

[TT-SEA]

I said first 2/3. And western OR is part of the PNW.

 

OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG were all below normal through the 20th. The maps were posted. It was clearly below normal for the majority of the region.

 

 

 

Does not have to be all or nothing.     Many places up here are at or above normal.    Oh well.   Can't paint this July with a broad brush.    

 

The July map is going to look even warmer for Western WA.    

[Front Ranger]

Does not have to be all or nothing. Many places up here are at or above normal. Oh well. Can't paint this July with a broad brush.

 

The July map is going to look even warmer for Western WA.

Works for me. I should be fairly close in the forecast contest.

[Deweydog]

Is a Tim and Flatiron thread next?

[TT-SEA]

Is a Tim and Flatiron thread next?

 

 

He bolds SEA like its all awash in purple with one dot of burning red over Sea-Tac.

 

Actually... AST and BLI and the San Juan Islands and also Vancouver Island and lower BC have all been running warmer than SEA.  

[stuffradio]

This Summer is a disaster for farmers. Blueberry crops are being wasted by the bucket full. A lot of my blueberries are turning to mush and are fermenting on the bush. Terrible.

[Deweydog]

He bolds SEA like its all awash in purple with one dot of burning red over Sea-Tac.

 

Actually... AST and BLI and the San Juan Islands and also Vancouver Island and lower BC have all been running warmer than SEA.

Similar to the crap between you and Phil, the answer resides in the middle.

[TT-SEA]

This Summer is a disaster for farmers. Blueberry crops are being wasted by the bucket full. A lot of my blueberries are turning to mush and are fermenting on the bush. Terrible.

 

 

Why?  Rain?

 

My mom was picking in Lynden last Friday and she said they were great.

[TT-SEA]

Similar to the crap between you and Phil, the answer resides in the middle.

 

 

The middle of what?   I am just pointing out that the entire westside has not been cold this month.    Fair statement.   You can't just pick on SEA.  

[stuffradio]

Why?  Rain?

 

My mom was picking in Lynden last Friday and she said they were great.

They're fermenting on the bushes and going mushy. I've heard reports of farmers in Abbotsford having to throw a bunch of their Blueberries out too.

[TT-SEA]

They're fermenting on the bushes and going mushy. I've heard reports of farmers in Abbotsford having to throw a bunch of their Blueberries out too.

 

Why is that happening?

[Deweydog]

Why is that happening?

This summer has just been too darn nice!

[TT-SEA]

This summer has just been too darn nice!

 

 

Must have been ill-timed rain.   Like the situation in WA with the cherries in May.  

[Front Ranger]

Similar to the crap between you and Phil, the answer resides in the middle.

 

Don't compare my discussion with Tim to Phil's. Not even close.

 

What I said was completely true. Most of the region, including most of the western lowlands, were below normal the first 2/3 of this month. This was well documented.

 

SEA runs warmer than most the region. Well documented. 

 

Tim is just being Tim. Yawn.

[Jesse]

This Summer is a disaster for farmers. Blueberry crops are being wasted by the bucket full. A lot of my blueberries are turning to mush and are fermenting on the bush. Terrible.

Because of how warm it's been at SEA?

[Jesse]

Is a Tim and Flatiron thread next?

Any thread Tim touches goes to pretty quickly.

 

I thought the idea of the separate thread was that he could ONLY post there?

[Front Ranger]

The middle of what?   I am just pointing out that the entire westside has not been cold this month.    Fair statement.   You can't just pick on SEA.  

 

All you do is single out SEA, silly man.

[TT-SEA]

Don't compare my discussion with Tim to Phil's. Not even close.

 

What I said was completely true. Most of the region, including most of the western lowlands, were below normal the first 2/3 of this month. This was well documented.

 

SEA runs warmer than most the region. Well documented. 

 

Tim is just being Tim. Yawn.

 

 

Dude... SEA is not even close to the warmest spot in the area.  

 

That is a pretty large area up here that is at or above normal.  

 

Jared just being Jared.   Always blaming SEA for everything.   

[TT-SEA]

All you do is single out SEA, silly man.

 

 

It my hometown station.    Good Lord.   What sense would it make to always point out OLM or EUG for me?   That would be strange.

 

Jesse points out PDX all the time.  Andrew references SLE.

 

The Vancouver Island people reference their stations... all blowing away SEA this month for warmth.  

 

Silly man.   

[Front Ranger]

Any thread Tim touches goes to s**t pretty quickly.

 

I thought the idea of the separate thread was that he could ONLY post there?

 

Eh, Phil is pretty much the only one to really lose his with Tim, though. The rest of us have seen his act for so long, we just occasionally put him in his place (without resorting to name-calling and fits of rage).

 

And then move on.